Türkiye’de ölümcül heyelanların dağılım karakteristikleri ve ulusal ölçekte öncelikli alanların belirlenmesi

Year 2020, Issue: 74, 123 - 134, 30.06.2020

Seçkin Fidan , Tolga Görüm

https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.731596

Cited By: 9

Abstract

Türkiye’de her yıl onlarca kişinin ölümüne neden olan çok sayıda heyelan olayı meydana gelmektedir. Ancak Türkiye’de gerçekleşen heyelan olaylarının bu yönüyle ele alınması ve ölümlerin kaydedilmesi günümüze kadar ihmal edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda, 1929'dan 2019'a kadar Türkiye'de ölümcül heyelan olaylarını kapsayan bir veri tabanı, önceden belirlenmiş anahtar kelimeler kullanılarak akademik makaleler, afet ve şehir yıllık raporlarından, devlet ve yardım ajansları raporlarından, ulusal ve yerel basılı ve dijital medya raporlarını içeren çeşitli Türkçe kaynaklardan derlenmiştir. İncelenen dönemde, 1343 kişinin ölümüne neden olan 389 heyelan olayı tespit edilmiştir. Heyelan olayları ve ölümlerin zamansal dağılım karakteristiğini belirlemek için kullanılan Mann-Kendall (MK) testi ve Sen’s slope yöntemine göre 1929-2019 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde hem olay hem de ölü sayılarında artış eğilimi görülmektedir. Yıl içerisinde yaz mevsimde yoğunluk gösteren bu heyelan olayları, Doğu Karadeniz Bölümü ve İstanbul çevresi olmak üzere iki yoğunluk bölgesi oluşturmaktadır. Genel olarak, Doğu Karadeniz Bölümü doğal faktörlerle denetlenen ölümcül heyelanlar ile temsil edilirken, İstanbul ve çevresi antropojenik faktörlerle denetlenen ölümcül heyelanlar ile temsil edilmektedir. Mekânsal olarak ölümcül heyelanlar, 81 ilin 67’sindeki 227 farklı ilçede kaydedilmiştir. Öncelikli alanların belirlenmesi, heyelana maruz kalan yerleşim yerinin nüfusu ve kaydedilen heyelan sayısı ile hesaplanan olasılık değerinin, ölü sayısı ile ilişkisi üzerinden değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ölümcül heyelanların nihai dağılım desenine göre, topografik engebeliliğin ülke ortalamasının üzerinde olduğu Doğu Karadeniz Bölümü’nde yer alan il ve ilçelerdeki ölümlü heyelan frekansının ülkenin diğer engebeli bölümlerinden çarpıcı bir şekilde yüksek olduğu ortaya konulmuştur.

Keywords

Heyelan, Ölümcül heyelan, Heyelan veri tabanı, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope metot

Distribution characteristics of fatal landslides in Turkey and determination of priority areas at national scale

Abstract

Annually, a large number of landslide events that resulted in the deaths of dozens of people occur in Turkey. However, the preparation of an inventory of fatal landslide events in Turkey has been neglected until today. In this respect, a database on fatal landslide events in Turkey for the period from 1929 to 2019 was compiled from various sources comprising national and local printed and digital media reports with pre-determined keywords in Turkish, academic papers, disaster, and city annual reports, and government and aid agency reports. In the studied period, 389 landslides events that caused of death 1343 people were detected. According to the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope method, which is used to determine the temporal distribution characteristic of landslide events and deaths, an increasing trend is observed in both events and the number of deaths in the period comprising 1929-2019. These landslide events, which show intensity in the summer during the year, constitute two major density regions, the Eastern Black Sea Region and the Istanbul environment. In general, the Eastern Black Sea Region is represented by fatal landslides triggered by natural factors, while fatal landslides triggered by anthropogenic factors characterize the Istanbul and near vicinity. Spatially, fatal landslides were recorded in 227 different counties in 67 of 81 cities. The determination of the priority areas was evaluated by the population of the settlements exposed to the landslide and the probability value calculated with the number of landslides recorded and the relationship with the number of the dead. In conclusion, based on the final distribution pattern we revealed that the frequency of the landslides in provinces and districts where the topographic roughness is above the country average, at the Eastern Black Sea Region are strikingly high from the other hilly sections of the country.

Keywords

Landslide, Fatal landslide, Landslide database, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope method

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