Deprem Büyüklüklerinin Benford Yasası’na Uygunluğu: Kahramanmaraş Depremleri Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, deprem büyüklüklerinin Benford Yasası’na uygun olup olmadığının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri incelenmiş ve 01.01.2023–27.02.2023 dönemi boyunca Türkiye’de gerçekleşen 14.565 adet depremin büyüklük verisi Benford Yasası rakamsal dağılımıyla karşılaştırılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, deprem büyüklüğü rakamlarının Benford Yasası’na uyum sağladığı ve çok küçük sapmalarla birlikte Benford Yasasını yakından takip ettiği belirlenmiştir. Söz konusu küçük sapmaların ise; büyüklük verilerinin tek ondalık basamağa yuvarlanarak açıklanmasından, yerin belirli derinliğinden daha ilerisinde oluşan çok küçük büyüklükteki depremlerin tespit edilememesinden veya mevcut verilerdeki çok küçük ölçüm hatalarından kaynaklanabileceği düşünülmektedir. Dolayısıyla, deprem oluşumlarının doğal süreçler sonucu ortaya çıktığı ve deprem büyüklüklerinin doğru olarak tespit edildiği söylenebilir.

Keywords

• Benford Yasası
• Rakamsal analiz
• Deprem büyüklükleri
• Kahramanmaraş Depremleri
• Sismik kümeler

Conformity of Earthquake Magnitudes to Benford's Law: the Case of Kahramanmaras Earthquakes

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine whether the earthquake magnitude data comply with Benford's Law. To this end, magnitude data of 14.565 earthquakes that occurred in Turkey between January 1, 2023, and February 27, 2023, were analyzed by comparing them with the numerical distribution of Benford's Law. According to the results obtained from the analysis, it has been determined that the earthquake magnitude digits conform to Benford's Law and closely follow Benford's Law with very small deviations. These small deviations are thought to arise from the rounding of magnitude data to a single decimal place, the inability to detect very small magnitude earthquakes occurring deeper than a certain depth, or very small measurement errors in the existing data. Therefore, it can be said that earthquake occurrences occur as a result of natural processes and earthquake magnitudes are determined correctly.

Keywords

• Benford’s Law
• Numerical analysis
• Earthquake magnitudes
• Kahramanmaras Earthquakes
• Seismic clusters

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