Utilizing Historical Earthquake Catalogs and GNSS Time Series for Earthquake Prediction via Deep Learning in the Bolu Region

Abstract

This study aims to develop an LSTM-based earthquake prediction model using GNSS data and instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Bolu region, located along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Stress time series derived from GNSS observations were used as model inputs, and with hyperparameter optimization, small and moderate magnitude earthquakes were predicted with high accuracy. However, the absence of earthquakes with magnitude M > 6.0 in the study area limited the model’s ability to learn from such large events. The findings demonstrate that GNSS data effectively reflect stress accumulation and, when integrated with the LSTM approach, can yield meaningful predictions. Using the best-performing parameters, the regional stress was observed to rise above 65 units by the end of 2023, indicating the potential for an earthquake of approximately M > 5.0. The results highlight the applicability and potential contribution of the proposed model to earthquake forecasting efforts.

Keywords

• Deep Learning
• GNSS
• LSTM
• Stress Accumulation
• Earthquake Prediction
• North Anatolian Fault Zone

Bolu İli Çevresinde Geçmiş Deprem Kataloğu ve GNSS Zaman Serilerinin Derin Öğrenme ile Deprem Tahmininde Kullanımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu üzerindeki Bolu çevresinde, GNSS verileri ve aletsel dönem deprem katalogları kullanılarak LSTM tabanlı bir deprem tahmin modeli geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. GNSS verilerinden hesaplanan stres zaman serileri modele girdi olarak verilmiş ve hiperparametre optimizasyonu ile küçük ve orta büyüklükteki depremler yüksek doğrulukla tahmin edilmiştir. Ancak, çalışma alanında M> 6.0 büyüklüğünde deprem yaşanmamış olması, modelin bu tür büyük olayları öğrenmesini sınırlamıştır. Bulgular, GNSS verilerinin stres birikimini yansıttığını ve LSTM yaklaşımıyla bütünleştirildiğinde anlamlı öngörüler sağladığını ortaya koymuştur. En iyi performansın elde edildiği parametrelerle, bölgedeki stresin 2023 yılı sonunda tekrar 65 birimin üzerine çıktığı ve yaklaşık M>5.0 büyüklüğünde bir depremin olası olduğuna işaret ettiği belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, önerilen modelin deprem öngörüsü alanında uygulanabilirliğini ve potansiyel katkısını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Derin Öğrenme
• GNSS Zaman Serileri
• LSTM
• Stres Birikimi
• Deprem Tahmini
• Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu

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