Deprem Riskinin Ekonomik ve Finansal Etkileri ile Afet Yönetimi Çıkarımları: Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı’na üye ülkelerde deprem riskinin ekonomik ve finansal göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Afet yönetimi perspektifinden ele alınan çalışmada 2000-2024 dönemi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada deprem riskinin ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, sermaye birikimi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve para arzı üzerindeki nedensel ilişkileri analiz edilmektedir. Ekonometrik analizlerde yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alınarak heterojen panel nedensellik testlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bu kapsamda panel SUR, panel VAR, panel LA-VAR ve PANICCA ile panel LA-VAR nedensellik testlerinden faydalanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, deprem riskinin iktisadi ve finansal kırılganlıkları artırarak ilgili ülkelerde afetlere karşı hazırlık düzeyi ve zarar azaltma kapasitesi üzerinde önemli etkiler oluşturduğunu belirtmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, deprem riski özelinde afet ve risk yönetimi politikalarının ekonomik ve finansal göstergelerle bütünleşik olarak ele alınmasının gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Deprem riski
• Sermaye birikimi
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• Panel nedensellik

Economic and Financial Impacts of Earthquake Risk and Implications for Disaster Management: An Empirical Analysis of the Member Countries of the Organization of Turkic States

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of earthquake risk on economic and financial indicators in member countries of the Organization of Turkic States. Approached from a disaster management perspective, the study examines the period 2000-2024. The study analyzes the causal relationships between earthquake risk and economic growth, inflation, capital accumulation, foreign direct investment, and money supply. Econometric analyses utilize heterogeneous panel causality tests, considering cross-sectional dependence. Specifically, panel SUR, panel VAR, panel LA-VAR, and PANICCA causality tests were employed. The empirical findings indicate that earthquake risk increases economic and financial vulnerabilities, significantly impacting the level of preparedness and damage mitigation capacity in the affected countries. The results highlight the necessity of integrating disaster and risk management policies with economic and financial indicators, particularly in the context of earthquake risk.

Keywords

• Earthquake risk
• Capital accumulation
• Economic growth
• Foreign direct investments
• Panel causality

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