Ulubat Fayı’nın Paleosismisitesi: Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu Güney Kolunun Deprem Davranışı Üzerine Çıkarımlar, Güney Marmara

Abstract

Bu makale, Ulubat Fayı boyunca yapılan ilk paleosismolojik çalışmaların sonuçlarını ve Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu (KAFZ) güney kolunun deprem davranışına ilişkin çıkarımları sunmaktadır. Ulubat Fayı geometrik karakteristik ve paleosismolojik davranışına göre 3 segmente ayrılmıştır. Paleosismoljik fay kazıları ile fay segmentlerinde son 16 bin yılda en az 6 eski deprem izi ayırt edilmiştir. Tarihsel kayıtlarla ilişkilendirilen yaş sonuçları Ulubat Fayı boyunca en son yüzey kırıklarının sırasıyla MS <161/170 (I=IX), MS 1143 (M=6.0) ve MS 1855 (M=7.3) depremleri ile oluştuğunu ve batıya göç ettiğini göstermektedir. Yeterli istatistiksel değerlendirme şansı sunmamakla birlikte, bu çalışmada ortaya konulan paleosismolojik veriler KAFZ güney kolunu oluşturan segmentlerin tekrarlanma periyodu anlamında karakteristik deprem davranışı sunmadığını ve bu düzensizliğin fay zonunun bölgedeki çok parçalı geometrisinden kaynaklı olabileceğini kanıtlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu
• Ulubat Fayı
• Paleosismoloji
• Bursa
• Güney Marmara

Paleoseismicity of the Ulubat Fault: Inferences on Seismic Behaviour of the Southern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, South Marmara

Abstract

This article presents the results of the first paleoseismological studies conducted along the Ulubat Fault and their inferences on the earthquake behavior of the south branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The Ulubat Fault is divided into 3 segments according to its geometric characteristics and paleoseismological behavior. Along the fault segments, at least 6 paleo-earthquake event have been distinguished in the last 16 thousand years with paleoseismolgic fault excavations. The dating results correlated with the historical records show that the latest surface ruptures along the Ulubat Fault occurred with the earthquakes of <161/170 AD (I=IX), 1143 AD (M=6.0) and 1855 AD (M=7.3), respectively, and migrated to the west. Although it does not provide sufficient statistical evaluation opportunity, the paleoseismological data presented in this study proves that the segments of the NAFZ south branch do not present characteristic earthquake behavior in terms of recurrence period and this irregularity may be due to the multi-fragment geometry of the fault zone in the region.

Keywords

• North Anatolian Fault Zone
• Ulubat Fault
• Paleoseismology
• Bursa
• Southern Marmara

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