Effects of Ground Motion Prediction Models on the Performance of Earthquake Damage and Loss Estimation Systems: February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş Earthquake

Year 2024, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 123 - 144, 30.06.2024

Fatma İlknur Kara Yasin Fahjan

https://doi.org/10.46464/tdad.1411559

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of ground motion prediction models (GMPE) on the performance of Earthquake Damage and Loss Estimation Systems (EDLES), which play a crucial role in disaster management. In the study, seismic hazard and risk analyses were performed using data of the February 6 Kahramanmaraş (Pazarcık) earthquake, and the analysis results were updated with the data of strong ground motion stations. Four different globally accepted GMPEs, HAZUS classification systems and fragility curves, were preferred in the analyses. The results of the analyses are examined from two different perspectives: the impact of GMPE selection and the effects of using updated model. It was found that the choice of GMPE significantly influences the seismic hazard and risk assessments. In the comparison made by averaging the GMPE models, the updated model was found to more accurately predict the number of severely damaged and collapsed buildings defined as requiring emergency response by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively.

Keywords

Earthquake damage and loss estimation systems, Seismic hazard, Seismic risk, Disaster management, Ground motion Prediction models

Yer Hareketi Tahmin Modellerinin Deprem Ön Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri’nin Performansına Etkileri: 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, yer hareketi tahmin modellerinin (GMPE), Deprem Ön Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri'nin (DÖHTS) performansına etkilerini incelemektedir. DÖHTS, afet yönetiminde kritik role sahip sistemlerdir. Çalışmada, 6 Şubat Kahramanmaraş (Pazarcık) depreminin verileri kullanılarak sismik tehlike ve risk analizleri gerçekleştirilmiş, analiz sonuçları kuvvetli yer hareketi istasyonları verileri ile güncellenmiştir. Analizlerde küresel ölçekte kabul gören dört farklı GMPE ve HAZUS sınıflandırma sistemi ve hasargörebilirlik eğrileri tercih edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, GMPE’lerin seçimi ve güncellenmiş veri kullanımının sonuçlar üzerindeki etkileri olmak üzere iki farklı açıdan incelenmiştir. GMPE seçimi, sismik tehlike ve risk sonuçlarını doğrudan etkilemektedir. GMPE modellerinin ortalaması alınarak yapılan karşılaştırmada, güncellenmiş veri kullanımı ile acil müdahale gerektiren ağır hasarlı ve göçen bina sayılarının sırasıyla yaklaşık %10 ve %15 daha iyi tahmin edilebildiği belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Deprem ön hasar tahmin sistemleri, Sismik tehlike, Sismik risk, Afet yönetimi, Yer hareketi tahmin modelleri

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