Hibrit Trend Analiz Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Doğu Akdeniz Havzasındaki Hidrolojik Kuraklıkların İncelenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Şen eğim tahmincisi (SSE) ve Şen'in Yenilikçi Trend Analizi (ITA) yöntemleriyle geliştirilen Mann-Kendall (MK) yöntemini kullanarak, Doğu Akdeniz Havzası'ndaki (DAH) nehir sistemleri üzerindeki iklim değişikliğinin etkisini araştırmaktadır. Araştırma, özellikle akış eğilimlerindeki hidrolojik değişikliklere odaklanmakta ve bunların iklim değişikliği ve antropojenik faaliyetler bağlamındaki etkilerini incelemektedir. Metodoloji, farklı gözlem istasyonlarından gelen akış verileri de dahil olmak üzere hidro-meteorolojik serilerin ayrıntılı bir analizini içermektedir. Araştırma, MK testinin seri bağımsızlık gereksinimini karşılayan gelişmiş metodolojileri uygulayarak eğilim tespitinin sağlamlığını artırmaktadır. Çalışma alanı, DAH'daki 10 alt havzayı kapsamakta olup özellikle Göksu Nehri ve kollarını içermektedir. Sonuçlar, birkaç istasyonda yıllık akış değerlerinde önemli düşüşler olduğunu ortaya koyarak, iklim ve çevresel değişikliklerin havzanın hidrolojisi üzerindeki önemli etkisini göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, akış desenlerindeki mekansal ve zamansal değişkenliğin ayrıntılı bir analizini sunan ITA grafikleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu araştırma, iklim değişkenliğine karşı hidrolojik tepkilerin daha iyi anlaşılmasına katkıda bulunarak, önemli çevresel değişiklikler geçiren bölgelerdeki su kaynakları yönetimi ve politikaları için önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Trend
• Mann-Kendall Yöntemi
• Şen’in Eğim Tahmini
• Şen’in Yenilikçi Trend Analizi
• Doğu Akdeniz Havzası
• Akış.

Investigation of Hydrological Droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin Using Hybrid Trend Analysis Methods

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on river systems within the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB), utilizing the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, enhanced by Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) and Şen’s Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods. The research focuses on hydrological changes,, particularly in streamflow trends, and examines their implications in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The methodology involves a detailed analysis of hydro-meteorological series, including streamflow data from different observation stations. The research enhances the robustness of trend detection by applying advanced methodologies such as trend-preserving pre-whitening, which satisfies the serial independence requirement of the MK test. The study area comprises 10 sub-basins in the EMB, with a particular attention to the Göksu River and its tributaries. The results reveal significant declines in the annual streamflow values at several stations, demonstrating the considerable influence of climate and environmental changes on the basin's hydrology. These findings are further evaluated using ITA graphs, which offer a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal variability in streamflow patterns. This research contributes to a better understanding of hydrological responses to climatic variability, providing vital information for water resource management and policies in regions undergoing significant environmental changes.

Keywords

• Trend
• Mann-Kendall Test
• Sen’s Slope Estimator
• Şen’s Innovative Trend Analysis
• Eastern Mediterranean Basin
• Streamflow

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