Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları

Cemale Oğul; Vedat Ceyhan

doi:10.61513/tead.1905286

TR EN

Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları

Öz

Arz zinciri aktörlerinin dayanıklılık algıları, arz zincirinin piyasa belirsizliklerine dayanıklılığını önemli düzeyde şekillendirmektedir. Bu sebeple, bu çalışmada, pirinç arz zinciri (PAZ) aktörlerinin dayanıklılık algılarının belirlenmesi ve dayanıklılık algısının sosyo-ekonomik değişkenlerle olan ilişkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Araştırma verileri 87 çeltik yetiştiricisinden, 18 pirinç fabrikasından, 16 pirinç toptancısından ve 16 perakendeciden anket yoluyla toplanmıştır. PAZ aktörlerinin algılanan dayanıklılıklarını ve dayanıklılık kapasitesi algılarının ortaya konulmasında dayanıklılık algısı ölçeğinden yararlanılmıştır. Dayanıklılık algısı ölçeklerinde yer alan göstergelerin, boyutların ve PAZ aktörlerinin ağırlıkları uzman görüşlerine dayalı olarak Delphi süreci yardımıyla belirlenmiştir. Araştırma bulguları, algılanan dayanıklılığı en düşük aktörlerin küçük ölçekli çeltik yetiştiricileri ve perakendeciler olduğunu, genel olarak ise zincirin piyasa belirsizliklerine karşı orta düzeyde bir dayanıklılığa sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Aktörler tarafından algılanan sağlamlık kapasitesinin, uyum ve dönüştürülebilirlik kapasitelerinden daha yüksek olduğu saptanmıştır. Modern teknolojileri benimseyen, dijitalleşmeye önem veren ve stratejik planlama yapan profesyonel aktörlerin dayanıklılık kapasiteleri daha yüksektir. Plansızlık ve geleneksel yöntemlere bağlılık en temel kırılganlık sebepleridir. Çeltik yetiştiricisi düzeyinde genç işgücü ve aile içi dayanışmanın kırılganlığı azalttığı, tüketiciye yakın aktörlerde ise veriye dayalı çevik yönetim anlayışına geçişin algılanan dayanıklılığı artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Araştırma bulgularına dayanarak, geleneksel teşvikler yerine her aktör grubuna özgü stratejiler geliştirilmesi ve PAZ aktörlerinin kendi arasındaki etkileşimin ve yardımlaşmanın artırılmasına yönelinmesi önerilmektedir. Samsun ili pirinç arz zincirinin algılanan dayanıklılığının artırılması için çeltik yetiştiricileri için eğitim ve danışmanlık odaklı desteklere ağırlık verilmeli ve pirinç fabrikası, pirinç toptancısı ve perakendeci düzeyinde, envanter yönetimi yaygınlaştırılmalı, hassas tarım teknolojilerinin kullanımı teşvik edilmeli ve blok zincir tabanlı takip sistemlerinin oluşturulması için düşük faizli teknoloji kredileri verilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pirinç, Arz zinciri, Dayanıklılık algısı, Dayanıklılık algısı belirleyicileri

Etik Beyan

Makalenin hazırlamasında etik ilkelere uyulmuştur. Araştırmanın materyalini toplamak için Ondokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Araştırmaları Etik Kurulu 29.03.2024 tarihinde 2024-266 sayılı belge numarasıyla etik kurul uygunluk kararı alınmıştır.

Perceptions of Robustness, Adaptability, and Transformability Among Rice Supply Chain Actors

Öz

The resilience perceptions of supply chain actors significantly shape the supply chain’s resilience to market uncertainties and shocks. The study, therefore, aimed to determine the resilience perceptions of rice supply chain (RSC) actors and analyze the relationship between resilience perception and socio-economic variables. Research data were collected from 87 rice farmers, 18 rice mills, 16 rice wholesalers, and 16 retailers by using well-designed questionnaires. A resilience perception scale was used to determine the perceived resilience and resilience capacity of RSC actors. The weights for the indicators, dimensions, and RSC actors included in the resilience perception scales were elicited through a Delphi process based on expert opinions. The research findings showed that small-scale paddy farmers and retailers had the lowest perceived resilience, while the chain generally possessed a moderate level of perceived resilience against market uncertainties. It was found that the perceived robustness capacity of the actors was higher than that of adaptability and transformability. Professional actors who embrace modern technologies, prioritize digitalization, and engage in strategic planning have higher perceived resilience capacities. Lack of planning and adherence to traditional methods were the most fundamental causes of vulnerability. Young workforce and family solidarity reduced vulnerability at the paddy farmer level, while a shift to data-driven agile management increased perceived resilience among actors closer to the consumer. Based on the research findings, it is recommended that instead of traditional incentives, strategies tailored to each actor group are developed, and that interaction and cooperation among RSC actors are increased. To increase the perceived resilience of the rice supply chain in Samsun province, emphasis should be placed on training and consultancy-focused support for paddy farmers. For processors, wholesalers, and retailers, inventory management should be widespread, the use of precision agriculture technologies should be encouraged, and low-interest technology loans should be provided to create block chain-based tracking systems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rice, Supply chain, Resilience perception, Determinants od resilience perception

Etik Beyan

The paper was prepared in accordance with ethical principles.

Kaynakça

Adams, K.M., Hester, P.T., Bradley, J.M., Meyers, T.J., Keating, C.B. (2013). Systems Theory: The Foundation for Understanding Systems. Systems Engineering, In press Google Scholar. Wiley Online Library. https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21255.
Anderies, J. M., Folke, C., Walker, B., Ostrom, R. (2013). Aligning Key Concepts for Global Change Policy: Robustness, Resilience, and Sustainability. Ecology and Society, 18(2), 8. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05178-180208.
Barrett, C. B. (2008). Smallholder Market Participation: Concepts and Evidence from Eastern and Southern Africa. Food Policy. 33(4), 299-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2007.10.005.
Bowen, W. ve Gleeson, R. (2019). General Systems Theory, Evolution, and Human Settlements: From Pleistocene Origins to Anthropocene Prospects. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95034-1_2.
Brown, B.B. (1968). Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts. https://scispace.com/pdf/delphi-process-a-methodology-used-for-the-elicitation-of-3bu5yelwz2.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 16 Şubat 2026).
Christopher, M., Peck, H. (2004). Building the Resilient Supply Chain. International Journal of Logistics Management. 15. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1108/09574090410700275.
Constas, M.A., d’Errico, M., Hoddinott, J.F., Pietrelli, R. (2021). Resilient food systems – A Proposed Analytical Strategy for Empirical Applications. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 21-10, Rome, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cb7508en.
Coopmans, I., Wauters, E., Spiegel, A., Slijper, T., Mathijs, E. (2025). Exploring Farmers' Perceived Resilience: A Profiling of the Flemish Farming System. Agricultural Systems, 229, 104429, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104429
Dalkey, N., Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458–467, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2627117.
Dardonville, M., Bockstaller, C., Therond, O. (2021). Review of Quantitative Evaluations of the Resilience, Vulnerability, Robustness, and Adaptive Capacity of Temperate Agricultural Systems. Journal of Agricultural Systems, 186, 102968, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125456.

Darnhofer, I. (2014). Resilience and Why It Matters for Farm Management. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 41 (3), 461–484, https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbu012
DeVellis, R. F. (2003). Scale Development: Theory and Applications (2. Baskı). Sage Publications, New York. https://www.scribd.com/document/609710825/deVellis-2003
FAO, (2018). Rice Market Monitor. Volume: XXI, Issue No:1, https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/07b6c7b4-065b-47ac-88d5-bbdafcb2baae/content (Erişim tarihi: 16 Şubat 2026).
Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, T., Rockström, J. (2010). Resilience Thinking: Integrating Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability. Ecology and Society, 15(4), 20, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03610-150420.
Gbadegesin, A. (2025). Effects of Climate Change on Host Communities: A Study of Selected Tourist Centres in Nigeria. Journal of Inclusive Cities and Built Environment, 3. 51-63, https://doi.org/10.54030/2788-564X/2025/spi3v5a4.
Gereffi, G., Lee, J. (2016). Economic and social upgrading in global value chains and industrial clusters: why governance matter. Journal of Business Ethics. 133(1), 25-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-014-2373-7.
Goldratt, E.M. (1998). Essays on the Theory of Constraints. Great Barrington, Massachusetts, North River Press, ISBN 0-88427-159-5, chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/Theory_of_Constraints_Eliyahu_M_Goldratt.pdf
Goodman, L. A. (1961). Snowball Sampling. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 32(1), 148–170, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177705148.
Granovetter M. S. (1973). The Strength of Weak Ties. American Journal of Sociology, 78(6), 1360–1380, https://faculty.washington.edu/matsueda/courses/590/Readings/Granovetter%20Weak%20Ties%20AJS.pdf
Hazell, P., Poulton, C., Wiggins, S., Dorward, A. (2010). The Future of Small Farms: Trajectories and Policy Priorities. World Development, 38(10), 1349-1361, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.06.012.
Headey, D. D. (2013). The Impact of the Global Food Crisis on Self-Assessed Food Security. The World Bank Economic Review, 27, 1-27, https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhs033
Hobbs, J.E., Hadachek, J. (2024). The Economics of Food Supply Chain Resilience. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 16, 379-397, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100423095119
Holling, C.S. ve Gunderson, L.H. (2002) Resilience and Adaptive Cycles. In: Gunderson, C.S. and Holling, C.S., Eds., Panarchy: Understanding Transformation in Human and Natural Systems, Island Press, Washington DC, 25-62, https://www.loisellelab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Holling-Gundersen-2002-Resilience-and-Adaptive-Cycles.pdf
ISO (2023). Industrial Food Sector. Sectoral Committees in Global Competition Sector Strategies project. https://www.iso.org.tr/sites/1/upload/files/YEMEK-SANAYI_INGIZLCE_WEB-11564.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 16 Şubat 2026).
Kazaryan, R., Andreeva, P., Galaeva, N. (2021). System Target Approach of Organizational Criteria for Managing the Life Cycle of Construction Projects. IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng, 1079 022090, https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/1079/2/022090
King, D.D., Lyons, B., Phetmisy, C.N. (2021). Perceived Resiliency: The Influence of Resilience Narratives on Attribution Processes in Selection, Journal of Vocational Behavior, 131, 103653, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvb.2021.103653
Meuwissen, M. P., Feindt, P. H., Spiegel, A., Termeer, C. J., Mathijs, E., de Mey, Y., ..., Reidsma, P. (2019). A framework to Assess the Resilience of Farming Systems. Agricultural Systems, 176, 102656, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102656.
Nagaraj R, A., Geethalakshmi, V., Swaminathan, M., Dhandapani, M., Ravikumar, R., Kulanthaivel, B., Senthilraja, K., Kumar, S.M., Manikkam, S.K. (2024). Comprehensive Insights into the Risks of Climatic Factors on Rice Production and Its Value Chain- A Review. Plant Science Today, 11, 1-12, https://doi.org/10.14719/pst.5269.
OECD, (2021). OECD Economic Outlook. Volume 2021, Issue 1, No.109. OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/edfbca02-en
Pettit, T., Fiksel, J., Croxton, K. (2010). Ensuring Supply Chain Resilience: Development of a Conceptual Framework. Journal of Business Logistics, 31, 1 – 21, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2158-1592.2010.tb00125.x.
Prat-Benhamou, A., Bernués, A., Gaspar, P., Lizarralde, J., Mancilla-Leytón, J.M., Mandaluniz, N., Mena, Y., Soriano, B., Ondé, D., Martín-Collado, D. (2024). How Do Farm and Farmer Attributes Explain Perceived Resilience? Agricultural Systems, 219, 104016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104016
Reardon, T., Timmer, C.P. (2012). The Economics of the Food System Revolution. Annual Review Resource Economics, 4,225-264, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.resource.050708.144147
Reardon, T., Chen, K.Z., Minten, B., Adriano, L. (2012). The Quiet Revolution in Staple Food Value Chains: Enter the Dragon, the Elephant, and the Tiger. Metro Manila, Philippines, Asian Development Bank and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155359.
Rosman, A., MacPherson, J., Arndt, M., Helming, K. (2024). Perceived Resilience of Community Supported Agriculture in Germany, Agricultural Systems, 220, 104068, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104068
Sackman, H. (1974). Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2006/R1283.pdf.
Schmidt, E., Dorosch, P., Gilbert, R. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 Induced Income and Rice Price Shocks on Household Welfare in Papua New Guinea: Household Model Estimates. Agricultural Economics, 52, 391–406, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12625
Sheffi, Y., Rice, Jr, J. (2005). A Supply Chain View of the Resilient Enterprise. MIT Sloan Management Review, 47 (1), 41-48, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255599289_A_Supply_Chain_View_of_the_Resilient_Enterprise (Erişim tarihi: 16 Şubat 2026).
Shishodia, A., Singh, R. K., Kaur, P. (2023). Supply Chain Resilience: A Review, Conceptual Framework and Future Research. International Journal of Logistics Management, 34(4), 879-908, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJLM-03-2021-0169.
Slijper, T., de Mey, Y., Poortvliet, P.M., Meuwissen, M.P.M. (2020). From Risk Behavior to Perceived Farm Resilience: a Dutch Case Study. Ecol. Soc., 25 (4), 10, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11893-250410
Slijper, T., de Mey, Y., Poortvliet, P.M., Spiegel, A., Rommel, J., Hansson, H., Vigani, M., Soriano, B., Wauters, E., Appel, F., Antonioli, F., Harizanova, H., Gavrilescu, C., Gradziuk, P., Meuwissen, M.P.M. (2021). Data from a Survey on the Perceived Resilience, Risk Management, Risk Preferences, and Risk Perceptions of Farmers from 11 European Countries. Erişim: https://doi.org/10.17026/dans-xgp-sr7c
Smith, J.W., Anderson, D.H., Moore, R.L. (2012). Social Capital, Place Meanings, and Perceived Resilience to Climate Change. Rural. Sociol., 77 (3), 380–407, https://repository.lib.ncsu.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/232138ae-62e5-4cce-b78a-8ab5e348aad7/content
Spiegel, A., Soriano, B., de Mey, Y., Slijper, T., Urquhart, J., Bardají, I., Vigani, M., Severini, S., Meuwissen, M. (2020). Risk Management and Its Role in Enhancing Perceived Resilience Capacities of Farms and Farming Systems in Europe. EuroChoices, 19 (2), 45–53, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347982220_Risk_Management_and_its_Role_in_Enhancing_Perceived_Resilience_Capacities_of_Farms_and_Farming_Systems_in_Europe
Spiegel, A., Slijper, T., de Mey, Y., Meuwissen, M.P.M., Poortvliet, P.M., Rommel, J., Hansson, H., Vigani, M., Soriano, B., Wauters, E., Appel, F., Antonioli, F., Gavrilescu, C., Gradziuk, P., Finger, R., Feindt, P.H. (2021). Resilience Capacities as Perceived by European Farmers. Agricultural Systems, 193, 103224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103224
Stoian, D. (2021). Fractures and Resilience of Agri-Food Value Chains in the Context of COVID-19. Working Paper 2. CIFOR-ICRAF. Indonesia. https://www.cifor-icraf.org/publications/pdf_files/WPapers/CIFOR-ICRAF-WP-2.pdf.
Svobodová, I., Pechrová, M.S., Takáč, M. (2025). Perception of Resilience and Its Determinants with a Focus on Farm Size: The Case of Agricultural Enterprises in the Czech Republic. Agricultural Economics – Czech, 71(8),458–474, https://doi.org/10.17221/479/2024-AGRICECON
Timmer, C.P. (2010). The Changing Role of Rice in Asia’s Food Security. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, No. 15, Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28552/adb-wp15-rice-food-security.pdf
TÜİK, 2025. Consumer Price Indices for Agricultural Commodities. Turkish Statistical Institute. https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/tr/press/58294 (Erişim tarihi: 16 Şubat 2026).
TZOB, 2024. Türkiye Ziraat Odaları Birliği 2023 Faaliyetleri ve 2024 Beklentileri Raporu. Türkiye Ziraat Odaları Birliği, Ankara. https://www.tzob.org.tr/turkiye-ziraat-odalari-birligi-2023-yili-degerlendirmesi-ve-2024-yili-beklentileri-raporu/
Valdés, A., Foster, W. (2010). Reflections on the Role of Agriculture in Pro-Poor Growth. World Development, 38(10), 1362–1374, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.06.003.
van der Lee, J., Kangogo,, D., Gülzari, Ş.Ö., Dentoni, D., Oosting, S., Bijman, J., Klerkx, L. (2022). Theoretical Positions and Approaches to Resilience Assessment in Farming Systems. A Review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 42 (2), 27, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-022-00755-x
von Bertalanffy, L. (1968). General System Theory. Foundations, Development, Applications. George Braziller Inc., New York, 289 sayfa, https://monoskop.org/images/7/77/Von_Bertalanffy_Ludwig_General_System_Theory_1968.pdf
Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., Kinzig, A. (2004). Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology & Society, 9(2), 5, http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5/
Yao, Y., Meurier, B. (2012). Understanding the Supply Chain Resilience: a Dynamic Capabilities Approach. MPRA Paper 58124, University Library of Munich, Germany. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58124/1/MPRA_paper_58124.pdf

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Tarım Ekonomisi, Tarım Ekonomisi (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Cemale Oğul
0009-0001-7504-373X
Türkiye

Vedat Ceyhan ^*
0000-0003-2336-0212
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

28 Haziran 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

8 Mart 2026

Kabul Tarihi

1 Nisan 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1905286

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA99FP68ZG

APA

Oğul, C., & Ceyhan, V. (2026). Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(1), 100-117. https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1905286

AMA

1.Oğul C, Ceyhan V. Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları. TEAD. 2026;12(1):100-117. doi:10.61513/tead.1905286

Chicago

Oğul, Cemale, ve Vedat Ceyhan. 2026. “Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları”. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 (1): 100-117. https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1905286.

EndNote

Oğul C, Ceyhan V (01 Haziran 2026) Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 1 100–117.

IEEE

[1]C. Oğul ve V. Ceyhan, “Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları”, TEAD, c. 12, sy 1, ss. 100–117, Haz. 2026, doi: 10.61513/tead.1905286.

ISNAD

Oğul, Cemale - Ceyhan, Vedat. “Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları”. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi 12/1 (01 Haziran 2026): 100-117. https://doi.org/10.61513/tead.1905286.

JAMA

1.Oğul C, Ceyhan V. Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları. TEAD. 2026;12:100–117.

MLA

Oğul, Cemale, ve Vedat Ceyhan. “Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları”. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 12, sy 1, Haziran 2026, ss. 100-17, doi:10.61513/tead.1905286.

Vancouver

1.Cemale Oğul, Vedat Ceyhan. Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları. TEAD. 01 Haziran 2026;12(1):100-17. doi:10.61513/tead.1905286

Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 lisansı kullanmaktadır.

Pirinç Arz Zinciri Aktörlerinin Sağlamlık, Uyum ve Dönüştürülebilirlik Algıları

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Perceptions of Robustness, Adaptability, and Transformability Among Rice Supply Chain Actors

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Etik Beyan

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster