Yaya Kazalarının Yaralanma Şiddetinin İncelenmesi: İkili Lojistik Regresyon Modeli Uygulaması

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ikili lojistik regresyon model kullanılarak yaya kazalarının yaralanma şiddetine etki eden faktörler belirlenmiştir. Bu amaçla Emniyet Genel Müdürlüğü veri tabanından elde edilen, Mersin’de 2015-2017 yılları arasında tek bir taşıt ve tek bir yayanın karıştığı kazalara ait kaza düzeyindeki detaylı veriler kullanılmıştır. Yayaların yaralanma şiddetini belirlemek için kaza sonrası 30 günlük sürecin sonundaki veri kullanılmıştır. Model sonuçları kazalara 55 yaş ve üstü yayaların karışmasının, erkek yayaların karışmasının, kazada yayaların kusurlu olmasının, kazada hız kusuru olmasının ve kaza noktasında yatay kurb bulunmasının yaya kazalarının yaralanma şiddetinin 0,05 anlamlılık düzeyinde arttırdığını göstermiştir. Yaya kazalarının devlet yollarında ve gece meydana gelmesi yaya kazalarının yaralanma şiddetini 0,10 anlamlılık düzeyinde artırmaktadır. Öte yandan, kazalara motosikletlerin karışması yaralanma şiddetini 0,05 anlamlılık düzeyinde azalmaktadır.

Keywords

• Yaya
• Kaza
• Şiddet
• Güvenlik
• Logistik regresyon

Injury Severity Level Examination of Pedestrian Crashes: An Application of Binary Logistic Regression

Abstract

This study used a binary logistic regression model to identify factors affecting the severity level pedestrian crashes. For this purpose, a crash level disaggregate data were provided by the General Directorate of Security for the crashes involving a single vehicle and a single pedestrian in Mersin from 2015 to 2017. 30-day post-crash data were used to describe injury severity level of pedestrians. The model results showed that older pedestrians (55 years old and older), male pedestrians, pedestrians at-fault crashes, speeding and horizontal curves increases the severity level of pedestrian crashed at 0.05 significance level. State highway and night crash are associated with increased probability of severe injuries at 0.10 significance level. On the other hand, motorcycles decreases the severity level of pedestrian accidents at 0.05 significance level.

Keywords

• Pedestrian
• crash
• severity
• safety
• logistic regression

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