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TÜRKİYE’DE SANAYİ KATMA DEĞERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN KARBON EMİSYONLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: FOURİER-SHİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİ

Year 2026, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 291 - 310, 15.03.2026

Lütfü Sizer

https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1893373
https://izlik.org/JA74WY87GN

Abstract

Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde sanayileşme ve ekonomik büyüme hem makroekonomik performansı hem de çevresel kaliteyi doğrudan etkilemektedir. Hızlı sanayi genişlemesi ve üretim artışı, karbon emisyonlarındaki yükseliş yoluyla önemli çevresel baskılar oluşturabilmektedir. Bu nedenle sanayileşme, ekonomik büyüme ve CO2 emisyonları arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin incelenmesi, sürdürülebilir ekonomi politikalarının geliştirilmesi açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de karbon emisyonları, sanayi katma değeri ve reel gayri safi yurt içi hasıla arasındaki ilişki Fourier yaklaşımına dayalı ekonometrik yöntemlerle analiz edilmektedir.
1970–2024 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak lnCO2, lnGDP ve IND değişkenlerinin durağanlık özellikleri Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) ve Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) testleri ile incelenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, yumuşak yapısal değişimleri dikkate alan Fourier-Shin eşbütünleşme testi ile araştırılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edildikten sonra uzun dönem katsayıları Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, sanayi katma değeri ve ekonomik büyümenin uzun dönemde CO2 emisyonlarını pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde artırdığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin büyüme sürecinin karbon yoğun niteliğini sürdürdüğüne işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Karbon Emisyonları Sanayi Katma Değeri Ekonomik Büyüme Fourier-Shin Eşbütünleşme Testi.

References

  • Ak, M. Ü. and Öz, R. (2025). ARIMA and machine learning–based forecasting of electric and hybrid vehicle registrations in Türkiye. Scientific Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, 8(2), 121-131. https://doi.org/10.70030/sjmakeu.1838078
  • Arai, Y. and Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701653776
  • Arı, A. and Zeren, F. (2011). CO2 emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme: Panel veri analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 18(2), 37-47. https://izlik.org/JA72US98DX
  • Bayramoğlu, A. T. and Koç-Yurtkur, A. (2016). Türkiye’de karbon emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme analizi. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(4), 31-46. https://doi.org/10.11616/basbed.vi.455402
  • Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2004). A general test for time dependence in parameters. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(7), 899–906. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.786
  • Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Dong, F., Wang, Y., Su, B., Hua, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2019). The process of peak CO2 emissions in developed economies: A perspective of industrialization and urbanization. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 141, 61-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.10.010
  • Du, Q., Zhou, J., Pan, T., Sun, Q. and Wu, M. (2019). Relationship of carbon emissions and economic growth in China's construction industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 220, 99-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.123
  • Efeoğlu, R. (2022). Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi çerçevesinde sanayileşme, yenilenebilir enerji, enerji tüketimi ve finansal gelişmenin CO2 salınımı üzerindeki etkisi. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(2), 2103-2115. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1010774
  • Elfaki, K. E., Khan, Z., Kirikkaleli, D. and Khan, N. (2022). On the nexus between industrialization and carbon emissions: evidence from ASEAN+ 3 economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(21), 31476-31485. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18560-0
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica: Journal Of the Econometric Society, 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
  • Gallant, A. R. (1981). On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form: The Fourier flexible form. Journal of Econometrics, 15(2), 211-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90115-9
  • Jiang, W. and Yu, Q. (2023). Carbon emissions and economic growth in China: Based on mixed frequency VAR analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 183, 113500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113500
  • Karaca, B. and Çımat, A. (2023). Sanayileşme-enerji tüketimi ve büyümenin CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(2), 51-64. https://izlik.org/JA54HL35BH
  • Kazanasmaz, E., Demirel, B. L., Karatepe, S. and Hızarcı, A. E. (2023). Ekonomik büyüme, elektrik tüketimi ve karbon emisyonu ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 6(2), 248-265. https://doi.org/10.32951/mufider.1356297
  • Koçak, E. (2024). Ekonomik büyüme, ticari faaliyetler ve sanayileşmenin CO₂ emisyonu üzerindeki etkileri: Hindistan örneği. In İ. Arslan and Y. Bozgeyik (Ed.), Sosyal bilimler alanında akademik araştırma ve değerlendirmeler (Bölüm 2) içinde. Özgür Yayınları. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub427
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Pata, U. K. (2018). The effect of urbanization and industrialization on carbon emissions in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing procedure. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 7740–7747. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-1088-6
  • Sağlam, M. S., Yilanci, V. and Kongkuah, M. (2025). Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions: A time-varying analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in France (1890–2019). Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06310-4
  • Shahbaz, M., Uddin, G. S., Rehman, I. U. and Imran, K. (2014). Industrialization, electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions in Bangladesh. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 31, 575–586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.12.028
  • Shin, Y. (1994). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600008240
  • Tsong, C.-C., Lee, C.-F., Tsai, L.-J. and Hu, T.-C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
  • Wang, Q. and Jiang, R. (2019). Is China's economic growth decoupled from carbon emissions?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 225, 1194-1208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.301
  • Wang, Q. and Su, M. (2019). The effects of urbanization and industrialization on decoupling economic growth from carbon emission–a case study of China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 51, 101758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101758
  • Wang, Z., Shi, C., Li, Q. and Wang, G. (2011). Impact of heavy industrialization on the carbon emissions: An empirical study of China. Energy Procedia, 5, 2610-2616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.03.324
  • Zhu, Z., Liu, Y., Tian, X., Wang, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2017). CO2 emissions from the industrialization and urbanization processes in the manufacturing center Tianjin in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 168, 867-875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.08.245

THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST

Year 2026, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 291 - 310, 15.03.2026

Lütfü Sizer

https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1893373
https://izlik.org/JA74WY87GN

Abstract

In developing economies such as Türkiye, industrialization and economic growth play a crucial role in shaping both macroeconomic performance and environmental quality. Rapid industrial expansion may intensify environmental pressures through rising carbon emissions. Therefore, understanding the long-run dynamics among industrialization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions is essential for designing sustainable economic policies. This study analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions, industrial value added, and real GDP in Türkiye using econometric models based on the Fourier approach. The main objective is to determine whether Türkiye’s growth and industrialization process has followed a carbon-intensive path in the long run.
Using annual data covering 1970–2024, the stationarity properties of lnCO2, lnGDP, and IND are examined through the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) tests. The long-run relationship among the variables is investigated using the Fourier-Shin cointegration test, which captures smooth structural changes without pre-specifying break dates. Following confirmation of cointegration, long-run coefficients are estimated via Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) with Newey–West corrections. The results indicate that industrial value added and economic growth have a positive and statistically significant impact on CO2 emissions in the long run, suggesting that Türkiye’s growth trajectory remains carbon-intensive.

Keywords

Carbon Emissions Industrial Value Added Economic Growth Fourier-Shin Cointegration Test.

References

  • Ak, M. Ü. and Öz, R. (2025). ARIMA and machine learning–based forecasting of electric and hybrid vehicle registrations in Türkiye. Scientific Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, 8(2), 121-131. https://doi.org/10.70030/sjmakeu.1838078
  • Arai, Y. and Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701653776
  • Arı, A. and Zeren, F. (2011). CO2 emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme: Panel veri analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 18(2), 37-47. https://izlik.org/JA72US98DX
  • Bayramoğlu, A. T. and Koç-Yurtkur, A. (2016). Türkiye’de karbon emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme analizi. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(4), 31-46. https://doi.org/10.11616/basbed.vi.455402
  • Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2004). A general test for time dependence in parameters. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(7), 899–906. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.786
  • Becker, R., Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Dong, F., Wang, Y., Su, B., Hua, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2019). The process of peak CO2 emissions in developed economies: A perspective of industrialization and urbanization. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 141, 61-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.10.010
  • Du, Q., Zhou, J., Pan, T., Sun, Q. and Wu, M. (2019). Relationship of carbon emissions and economic growth in China's construction industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 220, 99-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.123
  • Efeoğlu, R. (2022). Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi çerçevesinde sanayileşme, yenilenebilir enerji, enerji tüketimi ve finansal gelişmenin CO2 salınımı üzerindeki etkisi. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(2), 2103-2115. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1010774
  • Elfaki, K. E., Khan, Z., Kirikkaleli, D. and Khan, N. (2022). On the nexus between industrialization and carbon emissions: evidence from ASEAN+ 3 economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(21), 31476-31485. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18560-0
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica: Journal Of the Econometric Society, 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
  • Gallant, A. R. (1981). On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form: The Fourier flexible form. Journal of Econometrics, 15(2), 211-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90115-9
  • Jiang, W. and Yu, Q. (2023). Carbon emissions and economic growth in China: Based on mixed frequency VAR analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 183, 113500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113500
  • Karaca, B. and Çımat, A. (2023). Sanayileşme-enerji tüketimi ve büyümenin CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(2), 51-64. https://izlik.org/JA54HL35BH
  • Kazanasmaz, E., Demirel, B. L., Karatepe, S. and Hızarcı, A. E. (2023). Ekonomik büyüme, elektrik tüketimi ve karbon emisyonu ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 6(2), 248-265. https://doi.org/10.32951/mufider.1356297
  • Koçak, E. (2024). Ekonomik büyüme, ticari faaliyetler ve sanayileşmenin CO₂ emisyonu üzerindeki etkileri: Hindistan örneği. In İ. Arslan and Y. Bozgeyik (Ed.), Sosyal bilimler alanında akademik araştırma ve değerlendirmeler (Bölüm 2) içinde. Özgür Yayınları. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub427
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Pata, U. K. (2018). The effect of urbanization and industrialization on carbon emissions in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing procedure. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 7740–7747. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-1088-6
  • Sağlam, M. S., Yilanci, V. and Kongkuah, M. (2025). Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions: A time-varying analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in France (1890–2019). Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06310-4
  • Shahbaz, M., Uddin, G. S., Rehman, I. U. and Imran, K. (2014). Industrialization, electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions in Bangladesh. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 31, 575–586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.12.028
  • Shin, Y. (1994). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600008240
  • Tsong, C.-C., Lee, C.-F., Tsai, L.-J. and Hu, T.-C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
  • Wang, Q. and Jiang, R. (2019). Is China's economic growth decoupled from carbon emissions?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 225, 1194-1208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.301
  • Wang, Q. and Su, M. (2019). The effects of urbanization and industrialization on decoupling economic growth from carbon emission–a case study of China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 51, 101758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101758
  • Wang, Z., Shi, C., Li, Q. and Wang, G. (2011). Impact of heavy industrialization on the carbon emissions: An empirical study of China. Energy Procedia, 5, 2610-2616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.03.324
  • Zhu, Z., Liu, Y., Tian, X., Wang, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2017). CO2 emissions from the industrialization and urbanization processes in the manufacturing center Tianjin in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 168, 867-875. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.08.245
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Lütfü Sizer 0000-0002-9605-4286

Submission Date February 19, 2026
Acceptance Date March 14, 2026
Publication Date March 15, 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1893373
IZ https://izlik.org/JA74WY87GN
Published in Issue Year 2026 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Sizer, L. (2026). THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST. Toplum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Dergisi, 7(1), 291-310. https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1893373
AMA 1.Sizer L. THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST. Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi. 2026;7(1):291-310. doi:10.58702/teyd.1893373
Chicago Sizer, Lütfü. 2026. “THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST”. Toplum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Dergisi 7 (1): 291-310. https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1893373.
EndNote Sizer L (March 1, 2026) THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST. Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi 7 1 291–310.
IEEE [1]L. Sizer, “THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST”, Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 291–310, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.58702/teyd.1893373.
ISNAD Sizer, Lütfü. “THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST”. Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi 7/1 (March 1, 2026): 291-310. https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1893373.
JAMA 1.Sizer L. THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST. Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi. 2026;7:291–310.
MLA Sizer, Lütfü. “THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST”. Toplum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 1, Mar. 2026, pp. 291-10, doi:10.58702/teyd.1893373.
Vancouver 1.Lütfü Sizer. THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER-SHIN COINTEGRATION TEST. Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi. 2026 Mar. 1;7(1):291-310. doi:10.58702/teyd.1893373