ENFLASYON HEDEFLEMESİNİN YAPISAL SINIRLARI: İMKÂNSIZ ÜÇLEME ÇERÇEVESİNDE TÜRKİYE’DE PARA VE MALİYE POLİTİKASI ETKİNLİĞİ (1990–2025)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1990–2025 döneminde enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin yapısal sınırlarını İmkânsız Üçleme çerçevesinde inceleyerek para ve maliye politikası etkinliğinin finansal küreselleşme koşulları altında nasıl sınırlandığını analiz etmektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, fiyat istikrarının yalnızca merkez bankası politikalarıyla sürdürülebilir biçimde sağlanıp sağlanamayacağını Türkiye deneyimi üzerinden değerlendirmektir. Bu çerçevede çalışma, enflasyonu yalnızca parasal bir olgu olarak ele alan geleneksel yaklaşımlardan ayrılarak; döviz kuru geçişkenliği, ithal girdi bağımlılığı, enerji fiyatları, dolarizasyon eğilimleri ve sermaye hareketleri gibi yapısal unsurları analiz sürecine dahil etmektedir. Metodolojik olarak çalışma, ekonometrik modellere dayalı dar teknik analizler yerine karşılaştırmalı makro-yapısal analiz, rejim analizi ve temel ampirik düzenlilikler yaklaşımını benimsemektedir. Bulgular, Türkiye’de sermaye girişlerinin kısa vadeli istikrar üretmesine rağmen dış kırılganlıkları artırdığını; kur şoklarının enflasyon dinamikleri üzerinde kalıcı etkiler yarattığını ve 2018 sonrası dönemde politika özerkliğinin belirgin biçimde daraldığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde sürdürülebilir fiyat istikrarının yalnızca faiz politikalarıyla değil; daha geniş yapısal dönüşüm kapasitesiyle ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon Hedeflemesi
• İmkansız Üçleme
• Para Politikası
• Maliye Politikası
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

THE STRUCTURAL LIMITS OF INFLATION TARGETING: MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY EFFECTIVENESS UNDER THE IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY IN TÜRKİYE (1990–2025)

Abstract

This study investigates the structural limits of Türkiye’s inflation-targeting regime and, within the broader framework of the Impossible Trinity, examines how financial globalization constrained the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies over the 1990–2025 period. The analysis distinguishes the pre-inflation-targeting period from the implicit and explicit inflation-targeting phases, thereby situating Türkiye’s evolving monetary policy framework within the broader constraints imposed by exchange-rate dynamics, capital mobility, and monetary policy autonomy. The main objective of the study is to evaluate whether sustainable price stability can be achieved solely through central bank policies in the Turkish case. In this context, the study departs from conventional approaches that interpret inflation primarily as a monetary phenomenon and incorporates structural factors such as exchange rate pass-through, import dependency, energy prices, dollarization tendencies, and capital flow volatility into the analysis. Methodologically, the article adopts a comparative macro-structural analysis, regime analysis, and stylized facts approach instead of narrow econometric modeling. The findings indicate that while capital inflows generated temporary macroeconomic stability, they simultaneously increased external fragility; whereby, exchange rate shocks created persistent inflationary effects; and policy autonomy significantly deteriorated after 2018. Overall, the study argues that in developing economies sustainable price stability cannot be maintained solely through interest rate policies, but instead depends on broader structural transformation capacity and macroeconomic coordination mechanisms.

Keywords

• Inflation Targeting
• Impossible Trinty
• Monetary Policy
• Fiscal Policy
• Turkish Economy

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