Occupational Accidents in the Turkish Construction Sector: Descriptive Statistics and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models

Abstract

The construction industry’s occupational health and safety (OHS) policies require re-evaluation due to inherent risks. This study statistically analyzes 434,314 occupational accidents reported to Social Security Institute (SSI) in Turkey (2012-2021), employing a Probit regression model to test fatality probabilities. Findings demonstrate that OHS training marginally reduces fatality probability by 1.28%, while blue-collar occupations carry higher mathematical weight in operational risk than advanced age. These probabilistic coefficients were converted into Process Safety Risk Scores (PRS) for site optimization and actuarial premium adjustment factors for risk-based insurance. Consequently, this study shifts construction safety from administrative processes toward data-driven, concrete risk management and engineering models

Keywords

• Construction industry
• occupational accidents
• cross-tabulation analysis
• probit regression
• risk-based workers' compensation
• design for safety

Türk İnşaat Sektöründe İş Kazaları: Tanımlayıcı İstatistikler ve Olasılıksal Risk Değerlendirme Modelleri

Abstract

En riskli sektörlerden biri olan inşaat sektöründe iş sağlığı ve güvenliği (İSG) politikalarının etkinliği yeniden değerlendirilmelidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye inşaat sektöründe 2012-2021 arası Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumuna (SGK) bildirilen 434.314 iş kazası istatistiksel olarak incelenerek, kazaların ölümle sonuçlanma olasılığı Probit regresyon modeliyle test edilmiştir. Bulgular, İSG eğitiminin ölüm olasılığını marjinal olarak %1,28 azalttığını; mavi yakalı meslek gruplarının operasyonel risk önceliğinde ileri yaş faktöründen daha yüksek matematiksel ağırlığa sahip olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Elde edilen olasılıksal katsayılar; şantiye optimizasyonu için Proses Güvenlik Risk Skoruna (PRS) ve risk-tabanlı sigortacılık için aktüeryal prim düzeltme faktörüne dönüştürülmüştür. Çalışma, inşaat güvenliğini idari bir süreçten çıkarıp veriye dayalı, somut bir risk yönetimi ve mühendislik modeline taşımaktadır.

Keywords

• İnşaat sektörü
• iş kazaları
• çapraz tablolama analizi
• probit regresyon
• risk tabanlı sigorta modeli
• tasarım için güvenlik

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