Early Prediction of Construction Disputes: Decision Support Systems with Machine Learning Techniques
Year 2026,
Volume: 37 Issue: 2
Mahmut Sarı
,
Savaş Bayram
,
Emrah Aydemir
Abstract
This study aims to predict the outcomes of construction disputes before they proceed to litigation and to foster a constructive environment between parties. Within the scope of the study, a total of 24 legal factors; 14 legal factors were identified through extensive literature review and 10 legal factors were identified through content analysis. These legal factors were used in three stages: Pre-Litigation (A, B) and Post-Litigation. Legal factors with significant relationships were tested with 24 different machine learning algorithms. NB Tree, Logit Boost and LMT algorithms achieved 63.79%, 63.66% and 86.90% accuracy for models A, B and C, respectively.
Ethical Statement
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Supporting Institution
the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye (TUBITAK)
Thanks
This work, created from the Ph.D. thesis of Mahmut SARI, was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye (TUBITAK) through the Innovative Solutions Research Projects Support Program in Social Sciences and Humanities (3005) under grant 122G126.
References
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Giang, D.T.H. and L. Sui Pheng, Role of construction in economic development: Review of key concepts in the past 40 years. Habitat International, 2011. 35(1): p. 118-125.
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Jaber, F.K., N.A. Jasim, and F.M. Al-Zwainy, Forecasting techniques in construction industry: earned value indicators and performance models. Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences (SREES), 2020. 29(2): p. 234-243.
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Li, J., D. Greenwood, and M. Kassem, Blockchain in the built environment and construction industry: A systematic review, conceptual models and practical use cases. Automation in construction, 2019. 102: p. 288-307.
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Mengistu, D.G. and G. Mahesh, Challenges in developing the Ethiopian construction industry. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 2020. 12(4): p. 373-384.
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Fenn, P., D. Lowe, and C. Speck, Conflict and dispute in construction. Construction Management and Economics, 1997. 15(6): p. 513-518.
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Sarı, M., B. Sayın, and C. Akçay, Classification and resolution procedure for disputes in public construction projects. Revista de la Construcción. Journal of Construction, 2021. 20(2): p. 259-276.
-
Dobrucali, E., et al., Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on the United States Construction Industry: Challenges and Opportunities. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2022: p. 1-13.
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Sarı, M., Savaş Bayram, and E. Aydemir, Construction-Related Disputes: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Investigation in The 8th International Project and Construction Management Conference (IPCMC 2024), S.U. Kerim Koç, Serkan Kıvrak, Editor. 2024: İstanbul. p. 507-518.
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Cheung, S.O. and T.W. Yiu, Are Construction Disputes Inevitable? IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2006. 53(3): p. 456-470.
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Arcadis, C., Global Construction Disputes Report 2020, in Global Construction Disputes Report. 2020, Arcadis Company
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Tanriverdi, C., et al., Causal mapping to explore emergence of construction disputes. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2021. 27(5): p. 288-302.
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Kumaraswamy, M.M., Conflicts, claims and disputes in construction. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 1997. 4(2): p. 95-111.
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Zheng, X., Liu, Y., Jiang, J., Thomas, L.M., Su, N., Predicting The Litigation Outcome of PPP Project Disputes Between Public Authority and Private Partner Using an Ensemble Model. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2021. 22: p. 320-345.
-
Ayhan, M., I. Dikmen, and M.T. Birgönül, Predicting the Occurrence of Construction Disputes Using Machine Learning Techniques. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2021. 147(4).
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Arditi, D., F.E. Oksay, and O.B. Tokdemir, Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using Neural Networks. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 1998. 13(2): p. 75-81.
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Arditi, D. and O.B. Tokdemir, Using Case-Based Reasoning to Predict the Outcome of Construction Litigation. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 1999. 14(6): p. 385-393.
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Mahfouz, T. and A. Kandil, Factors Affecting Litigation Outcomes of Differing Site Conditions (DSC) Disputes: A Logistic Regression Models (LRM), in Building a Sustainable Future. 2009. p. 239-248.
-
Mahfouz, T. and A. Kandil, Litigation Outcome Prediction of Differing Site Condition Disputes through Machine Learning Models. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2012. 26: p. 298-308.
-
Chaphalkar, N.B., K.C. Iyer, and S.K. Patil, Prediction of outcome of construction dispute claims using multilayer perceptron neural network model. International Journal of Project Management, 2015. 33(8): p. 1827-1835.
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Treacy, T.B., Use of Alternative Dispute Resolution in the Construction Industry. Journal of Management in Engineering, 1995. 11(1): p. 58-63.
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Gill, A., et al., Comparison of the effects of litigation and ADR in South-East Queensland. International Journal of Construction Management, 2015. 15(3): p. 254-263.
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Parikh, D., G.J. Joshi, and D.A. Patel, Development of Prediction Models for Claim Cause Analyses in Highway Projects. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 2019. 11(4): p. 04519018.
-
Hall, M.A. and R.F. Wright, Systematic Content Analysis of Judicial Opinions. Calif. L. Rev., 2008. 96: p. 63-63.
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Do, S.T., V.T. Nguyen, and N.H. Nguyen, Relationship networks between variation orders and claims/disputes causes on construction project performance and stakeholder performance. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 2022.
-
Francis, M., T. Ramachandra, and S. Perera, Disputes in Construction Projects: A Perspective of Project Characteristics. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 2022. 14(2).
-
Echternach--Jaubert, M., R. Pellerin, and L. Joblot, Litigation management process in construction industry. Procedia Computer Science, 2021. 181: p. 678-684.
-
Tazelaar, F. and C. Snijders, Dispute resolution and litigation in the construction industry. Evidence on conflicts and conflict resolution in The Netherlands and Germany. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 2010. 16(4): p. 221-229.
-
Haugen, T. and A. Singh, Dispute Resolution Strategy Selection. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 2015. 7(3).
-
Arditi, D. and T. Pulket, Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using Boosted Decision Trees. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2005. 19(4): p. 387-393.
-
Chau, K.W. Predicting Construction Litigation Outcome Using Particle Swarm Optimization. in Innovations in Applied Artificial Intelligence. 2005. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
-
Chau, K.W. Prediction of Construction Litigation Outcome – A Case-Based Reasoning Approach. in Advances in Applied Artificial Intelligence. 2006. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
-
Chen, J.-H. and S.C. Hsu, Hybrid ANN-CBR model for disputed change orders in construction projects. Automation in Construction, 2007. 17(1): p. 56-64.
-
Pulket, T. and D. Arditi, Construction litigation prediction system using ant colony optimization. Construction Management and Economics, 2009. 27(3): p. 241-251.
-
Pulket, T. and D. Arditi, Universal Prediction Model for Construction Litigation. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2009. 23(3): p. 178-187.
-
Arditi, D. and T. Pulket, Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using an Integrated Artificial Intelligence Model. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2010. 24(1): p. 73-80.
-
Chou, J.-S., C. Tsai, and Y. Lu, Project Dispute Prediction by Hybrid Machine Learning Techniques. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2013. 19(4): p. 505-517.
-
Hyett, N., A. Kenny Dr, and V. Dickson-Swift Dr, Methodology or method? A critical review of qualitative case study reports. International Journal of Qualitative Studies on Health and Well-being, 2014. 9(1): p. 23606.
-
Sarı, M. and S. Bayram, İnşaat Anlaşmazlıklarının Önlenmesi ve Çözümünde Etkili Faktörler: Erken Aşamalarda ve Resmi Yargı Sürecindeki Rolü. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 2025. 41(1): p. 133-142.
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Sarı, M. and S. Bayram. From courts to boards: Comparative legal analysis of early- stage dispute management in public construction disputes. in 4th International Civil Engineering & Architecture Conference (ICEARC'25). 2025. Trabzon, Türkiye.
-
Cevikbas, M., Identification of dispute sources in the construction industry via court files. Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering, 2023. 34(2): p. 57-76.
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Early Prediction of Construction Disputes: Decision Support Systems with Machine Learning Techniques
Year 2026,
Volume: 37 Issue: 2
Mahmut Sarı
,
Savaş Bayram
,
Emrah Aydemir
Abstract
This study aims to predict the outcomes of construction disputes before they proceed to litigation and to foster a constructive environment between parties. Within the scope of the study, a total of 24 legal factors; 14 legal factors were identified through extensive literature review and 10 legal factors were identified through content analysis. These legal factors were used in three stages: Pre-Litigation (A, B) and Post-Litigation. Legal factors with significant relationships were tested with 24 different machine learning algorithms. NB Tree, Logit Boost and LMT algorithms achieved 63.79%, 63.66% and 86.90% accuracy for models A, B and C, respectively.
Ethical Statement
Yazarlar, bu çalışmada rapor edilen çalışmayı etkilemiş gibi görünebilecek bilinen hiçbir rakip mali çıkarları veya kişisel ilişkileri olmadığını beyan ederler.
Supporting Institution
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (TÜBİTAK)
Thanks
Mahmut SARI'nın doktora tezinden yola çıkılarak hazırlanan bu çalışma, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (TÜBİTAK) tarafından Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Alanında Yenilikçi Çözümler Araştırma Projeleri Destekleme Programı (3005) kapsamında 122G126 hibe kapsamında desteklenmiştir.
References
-
Giang, D.T.H. and L. Sui Pheng, Role of construction in economic development: Review of key concepts in the past 40 years. Habitat International, 2011. 35(1): p. 118-125.
-
Ringen, K. and A. Englund, The Construction Industry. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2006. 1076(1): p. 388-393.
-
Iliev, B.Z., World Construction Market. Review of Business and Economics Studies, 2019. 7: p. 32-36.
-
Lean, C.S., Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore. Construction Management and Economics, 2001. 19(4): p. 355-363.
-
Jaber, F.K., N.A. Jasim, and F.M. Al-Zwainy, Forecasting techniques in construction industry: earned value indicators and performance models. Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences (SREES), 2020. 29(2): p. 234-243.
-
Li, J., D. Greenwood, and M. Kassem, Blockchain in the built environment and construction industry: A systematic review, conceptual models and practical use cases. Automation in construction, 2019. 102: p. 288-307.
-
Mengistu, D.G. and G. Mahesh, Challenges in developing the Ethiopian construction industry. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 2020. 12(4): p. 373-384.
-
Fenn, P., D. Lowe, and C. Speck, Conflict and dispute in construction. Construction Management and Economics, 1997. 15(6): p. 513-518.
-
Sarı, M., B. Sayın, and C. Akçay, Classification and resolution procedure for disputes in public construction projects. Revista de la Construcción. Journal of Construction, 2021. 20(2): p. 259-276.
-
Dobrucali, E., et al., Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on the United States Construction Industry: Challenges and Opportunities. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2022: p. 1-13.
-
Sarı, M., Savaş Bayram, and E. Aydemir, Construction-Related Disputes: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Investigation in The 8th International Project and Construction Management Conference (IPCMC 2024), S.U. Kerim Koç, Serkan Kıvrak, Editor. 2024: İstanbul. p. 507-518.
-
Cheung, S.O. and T.W. Yiu, Are Construction Disputes Inevitable? IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2006. 53(3): p. 456-470.
-
Arcadis, C., Global Construction Disputes Report 2020, in Global Construction Disputes Report. 2020, Arcadis Company
-
Arcadis, C., Global Construction Disputes Report 2022, in Global Construction Disputes Report 2022.
-
Tanriverdi, C., et al., Causal mapping to explore emergence of construction disputes. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2021. 27(5): p. 288-302.
-
Kumaraswamy, M.M., Conflicts, claims and disputes in construction. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 1997. 4(2): p. 95-111.
-
Heue, L. and S. Penrod, Predicting the Outcomes of Disputes: Consequences for Disputant Reactions to Procedures and Outcomes. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1994. 24(3): p. 260-283.
-
Zheng, X., Liu, Y., Jiang, J., Thomas, L.M., Su, N., Predicting The Litigation Outcome of PPP Project Disputes Between Public Authority and Private Partner Using an Ensemble Model. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2021. 22: p. 320-345.
-
Ayhan, M., I. Dikmen, and M.T. Birgönül, Predicting the Occurrence of Construction Disputes Using Machine Learning Techniques. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2021. 147(4).
-
Arditi, D., F.E. Oksay, and O.B. Tokdemir, Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using Neural Networks. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 1998. 13(2): p. 75-81.
-
Arditi, D. and O.B. Tokdemir, Using Case-Based Reasoning to Predict the Outcome of Construction Litigation. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 1999. 14(6): p. 385-393.
-
Mahfouz, T. and A. Kandil, Factors Affecting Litigation Outcomes of Differing Site Conditions (DSC) Disputes: A Logistic Regression Models (LRM), in Building a Sustainable Future. 2009. p. 239-248.
-
Mahfouz, T. and A. Kandil, Litigation Outcome Prediction of Differing Site Condition Disputes through Machine Learning Models. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2012. 26: p. 298-308.
-
Chaphalkar, N.B., K.C. Iyer, and S.K. Patil, Prediction of outcome of construction dispute claims using multilayer perceptron neural network model. International Journal of Project Management, 2015. 33(8): p. 1827-1835.
-
Treacy, T.B., Use of Alternative Dispute Resolution in the Construction Industry. Journal of Management in Engineering, 1995. 11(1): p. 58-63.
-
Justice, T.M.o., General Directorate of Judicial Records and Statistics. 2023.
-
Gill, A., et al., Comparison of the effects of litigation and ADR in South-East Queensland. International Journal of Construction Management, 2015. 15(3): p. 254-263.
-
Parikh, D., G.J. Joshi, and D.A. Patel, Development of Prediction Models for Claim Cause Analyses in Highway Projects. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 2019. 11(4): p. 04519018.
-
Hall, M.A. and R.F. Wright, Systematic Content Analysis of Judicial Opinions. Calif. L. Rev., 2008. 96: p. 63-63.
-
Do, S.T., V.T. Nguyen, and N.H. Nguyen, Relationship networks between variation orders and claims/disputes causes on construction project performance and stakeholder performance. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 2022.
-
Francis, M., T. Ramachandra, and S. Perera, Disputes in Construction Projects: A Perspective of Project Characteristics. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 2022. 14(2).
-
Echternach--Jaubert, M., R. Pellerin, and L. Joblot, Litigation management process in construction industry. Procedia Computer Science, 2021. 181: p. 678-684.
-
Tazelaar, F. and C. Snijders, Dispute resolution and litigation in the construction industry. Evidence on conflicts and conflict resolution in The Netherlands and Germany. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 2010. 16(4): p. 221-229.
-
Haugen, T. and A. Singh, Dispute Resolution Strategy Selection. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 2015. 7(3).
-
Arditi, D. and T. Pulket, Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using Boosted Decision Trees. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2005. 19(4): p. 387-393.
-
Chau, K.W. Predicting Construction Litigation Outcome Using Particle Swarm Optimization. in Innovations in Applied Artificial Intelligence. 2005. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
-
Chau, K.W. Prediction of Construction Litigation Outcome – A Case-Based Reasoning Approach. in Advances in Applied Artificial Intelligence. 2006. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
-
Chen, J.-H. and S.C. Hsu, Hybrid ANN-CBR model for disputed change orders in construction projects. Automation in Construction, 2007. 17(1): p. 56-64.
-
Pulket, T. and D. Arditi, Construction litigation prediction system using ant colony optimization. Construction Management and Economics, 2009. 27(3): p. 241-251.
-
Pulket, T. and D. Arditi, Universal Prediction Model for Construction Litigation. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2009. 23(3): p. 178-187.
-
Arditi, D. and T. Pulket, Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using an Integrated Artificial Intelligence Model. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2010. 24(1): p. 73-80.
-
Chou, J.-S., C. Tsai, and Y. Lu, Project Dispute Prediction by Hybrid Machine Learning Techniques. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2013. 19(4): p. 505-517.
-
Hyett, N., A. Kenny Dr, and V. Dickson-Swift Dr, Methodology or method? A critical review of qualitative case study reports. International Journal of Qualitative Studies on Health and Well-being, 2014. 9(1): p. 23606.
-
Sarı, M. and S. Bayram, İnşaat Anlaşmazlıklarının Önlenmesi ve Çözümünde Etkili Faktörler: Erken Aşamalarda ve Resmi Yargı Sürecindeki Rolü. Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 2025. 41(1): p. 133-142.
-
Sarı, M. and S. Bayram. From courts to boards: Comparative legal analysis of early- stage dispute management in public construction disputes. in 4th International Civil Engineering & Architecture Conference (ICEARC'25). 2025. Trabzon, Türkiye.
-
Cevikbas, M., Identification of dispute sources in the construction industry via court files. Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering, 2023. 34(2): p. 57-76.
-
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