Predicting post-fire tree mortality

Year 2024, , 220 - 232, 28.06.2024

Coşkun Okan Güney , Aylin Güney

https://doi.org/10.18182/tjf.1441012

Abstract

After a forest fire, a mosaic structure of areas burned to varying degrees is created. Predicting whether partially burned and potentially viable trees will die is crucial for post-fire timber production and silvicultural planning. A good understanding of the processes of fire occurence and fire damage to trees is essential for precise prediction of post-fire tree mortality. The degree of damage to different parts of the tree, morphological characteristics, fire behavior characteristics, and secondary mortality factors can be taken into account when making predictions and are usually modeled using logistic regression. These models provide mortality estimates at a certain level of accuracy and can be used for individual trees or stand level. The aim of this review is to provide guidelines for post-fire mortality modeling research. To this end, our review provides information on the mechanisms of post-fire tree mortality, variables and measurements used in mortality modeling, model construction and application, summarizes the literature for future studies, and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the topic.

Keywords

Fire ecology, Fire damage, Fire injury, Cambium damage, Logistic regression

Orman yangınları sonrasında ağaçların canlılık durumlarının tahmin edilmesi

Abstract

Bir orman yangınından sonra, farklı derecelerde yanmış alanlardan oluşan mozaik bir yapı meydana gelmektedir. Kısmen yanmış ve yaşama ihtimali olan ağaçların ölüp ölmeyeceğinin tahmin edilmesi, yangın sonrası odun üretimi ve silvikültürel planlamalar için önemlidir. Yangın sonrası ağaçların canlılık durumlarının doğru şekilde tahmin edilebilmesi ise yangının meydana gelme süreçlerinin ve sonrasında ağaçlara nasıl zarar verdiğinin iyi bilinmesine bağlıdır. Tahminler yapılırken ağacın farklı kısımlarındaki zarar derecesi, morfolojik özellikler, yangın davranışı özellikleri ve ikinci dereceden ölüm etkenleri dikkate alınabilir. Genellikle lojistik regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak modellenmektedir. Bu modeller belirli doğruluk düzeyinde canlılık durumu tahminleri sağlamaktadır ve bireysel ağaçlar için oluşturulabileceği gibi meşcere düzeyinde de değerlendirilebilir. Bu derlemenin amacı, yangın sonrası canlılık durumu modelleme çalışmaları için kılavuz nitelinde bilgiler sunmaktır. Bu amaçla, orman yangınları sonrasındaki ağaç ölüm mekanizmaları, canlılık durumu modellemelerinde kullanılan değişkenler ve ölçme yöntemleri, modellerin oluşturulması ve oluşturulan modellerin nasıl kullanılabileceği hakkında bilgiler verilmiş, bundan sonra yapılacak çalışmalar için literatür özetlenerek konunun iyi ve eksik yönleri tartışılmıştır.

Keywords

Yangın ekolojisi, yangın hasarı, yangın zararı, kambiyum zararı, lojistik regresyon.

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