Beklenmeyen dağılım: İklim değişikliği sonucu Çöl Koşarı’nın (Cursorius cursor) Orta Anadolu'ya hareketi

Abstract

İklim değişikliği, yaban hayatı türlerini ve habitatlarını olumsuz olarak etkileyen önemli tehditlerden biridir. Özellikle son yıllarda küresel sıcaklıkların artması ve aşırı iklim olayları daha sık yaşanmakta ve birçok kuş türü bu çevresel değişikliklere yanıt olarak coğrafi aralıklarında, davranışlarında ve yaşam döngülerinde değişimler yaşamaktadır. Glareolidae ailesinden, yerde yuvalayan bir çöl kuşu olan Çöl Koşarı (Cursorius cursor), iklim değişikliği nedeniyle dağılımında ve fenolojisinde değişiklikler göstermeye başlayan bir kuş türüdür. Normal olarak Doğu Palearktik'teki kurak ortamlarda yaşayan bu tür, son zamanlarda Türkiye'deki Orta Anadolu da dahil olmak üzere, normal aralığından çok uzakta olan yeni bölgelerde gözlemlenmeye başlamıştır. Özellikle bu türün son yıllarda artık Türkiye'nin orta kısmında bulunan Tuz Gölü'nde beklenmedik bir şekilde ortaya çıkması ve yuvalaması korumacılar arasında endişelere yol açmış ve türün iklim değişikliğine karşı savunmasızlığını vurgulamıştır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki Çöl koşarı türünün potansiyel gelecekteki dağılımını iki farklı iklim değişikliği senaryosu (SSP 4.5 ve SSP 8.5) altında 2021-2040, 2041-2060 ve 2061-2080 yıllarını içeren üç zaman periyodu boyunca modellemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada MaxEnt modellemesi ve iklim değişikliği projeksiyonları kullanılarak, dağılımdaki bu değişimleri yönlendiren temel iklim faktörleri belirlenerek yorumlanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, türün gelecekteki coğrafi dağılımı hakkında kritik öngörüler sağlayarak iklim değişikliğinin Çöl koşarı ve diğer savunmasız kuş türleri üzerindeki etkilerinin azaltılması için koruma stratejilerine katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

• İklim değişikliği
• Çöl koşarı
• Ekolojik modelleme
• Anadolu
• Ornitoloji
• Türkiye

Unexpected expansion: Climate change-induced movement of the Cream-colored Courser (Cursorius cursor) into Central Anatolia

Abstract

Climate change is one of the major threats that negatively affects wildlife species and habitats. In recent years, global temperatures have increased, extreme climate events have become more frequent, and many bird species have experienced changes in their geographic ranges, behaviors, and life cycles in response to these environmental changes. The Cream-colored Courser (Cursorius cursor), a ground-nesting desert bird from the Glareolidae family, is a bird species that has begun to show changes in its distribution and phenology due to climate change. Normally living in arid environments in the Eastern Palearctic, this species has recently started to be observed in new areas far from its normal range, including Central Anatolia in Türkiye. In recent years, the unexpected appearance and nesting of this species in Tuz Lake, now located in central Türkiye, has raised concerns among conservationists and highlighted the species' vulnerability to climate change. This study aims to model the potential future distribution of the Cream-Coated Courser in Türkiye under two climate change scenarios (SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5) over three time periods: 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Using MaxEnt modeling and climate change projections, the study will identify and interpret the key climatic factors driving these changes in distribution. Our findings will provide critical insights into the future range dynamics of the species and inform conservation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on this and other vulnerable bird species.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Cream-colored courser
• Ecological modeling
• Anatolia
• Ornithology
• Türkiye

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