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COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği

Year 2020, , 14 - 24, 06.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.20518/tjph.776138

Abstract

Amaç: Fazladan ölüm (excess mortality), Epidemiyoloji ve Halk Sağlığında kullanılan bir kavram olup, normal koşullar altında görmeyi beklediğimizin ötesinde ölümleri ifade eder. Fazladan ölümlerin COVID-19 mortalitesini belirlemenin daha iyi bir ölçüsü olduğu ve uluslararası karşılaştırmalar yapmanın daha adil bir yolu olduğu konusunda görüşler vardır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye nüfusunun yaklaşık beşte birini barındıran İstanbul ilindeki ölümler değerlendirilerek, COVID-19 pandemisinin doğrulanmış (konfirme) vaka ölümleri dışındaki etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Yöntem: Geçen üç yılın ölüm verileriyle doğrusal (lineer) regresyon modeli oluşturulmuştur. Elde edilen regresyon denklemiyle 2020 ölümleri kestirilmiştir. Resmi olarak ülke genelinde bildirilen günlük COVID-19 ölümlerinin %50’sinin İstanbul’da gerçekleştiği varsayılarak fazladan ölümler değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular: Gözlenen ve beklenen ölümler arasında 5.147 fark belirlenmiştir. Sağlık Bakanlığı’nın 12 Temmuz’da açıkladığı raporunda; bu sürede İstanbul’da gerçekleşen resmi COVID-19 ölümlerinin 2.735 olduğu dikkate alındığında, hala açıklanamayan 2.412 fazladan ölümle karşılaşılmaktadır. Sonuç: COVID-19 pandemisi sırasında dünyanın birçok ülke ve kentinde olduğu gibi İstanbul’da da beklenenden ve bildirilen COVID-19 ölümlerinden daha çok ölüm gerçekleştiği saptanmıştır. Bu fazladan ölümlerin önemli bir bölümünün PCR (-) olmaları nedeniyle kaydedilmemiş COVID-19 ölümleri olduğu düşünülmüştür.

References

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  • 2. Noah, N.D., Controlling communicable disease. 2006, Maidenhead: Open University Press.
  • 3. Hui, D.S., G.A. Rossi, and S.L. Johnston, SARS, Mers and Other Viral Lung Infections. 2016, Sheffield: European Respiratory Society.
  • 4. Howard, N., E. Sondorp, and A.t. Veen, Conflict and health. Understanding public health series. 2012, Maidenhead ; New York: Open University Press. xvii, 197 p.
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  • 7. Krelle, H., C. Barclay, and C. Tallack. What is the fairest way to compare COVID-19 deaths internationally? 17.07.2020]; Available from: file:///C:/Users/Thsk/OneDrive/Attachments/Understanding%20excess%20mortality%20_%20The%20Health%20Foundation.html.
  • 8. HaberTürk. İllere göre vaka ve ölüm sayıları 2 Nisan. 20220 15.05.2020]; Available from: https://www.haberturk.com/corona-turkiye-haritasi-2-nisan-corona-virus-turkiye-illere-gore-vaka-sayisi-il-il-2632588.
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  • 10. Sağlık Bakanlığı, Covid-19 Durum Raporu 6-12 Temmuz Haftası. 2020.
  • 11. Ai, T., et al., Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases. Radiology, 2020. 296(2): p. E32-E40.
  • 12. Kucirka, L.M., et al., Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure. Ann Intern Med, 2020.
  • 13. Çoktan, G., İstanbul'da 20 Yıl Sonra Mezar Yeri Yok, in Milliyet Gazetesi. 2020.
  • 14. İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi. Vefat Bilgisi Sorgulama. 14.07.2020]; Available from: https://www.turkiye.gov.tr/istanbul-buyuksehir-belediyesi-vefat-sorgulama.
  • 15. The Economist. Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries. 17.07.2020]; Available from: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries.
  • 16. New York City Department of, H. and C.-R.T. Mental Hygiene, Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak - New York City, March 11-May 2, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 2020. 69(19): p. 603-605.

The COVID-19 pandemic and excess mortality: The Istanbul case study

Year 2020, , 14 - 24, 06.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.20518/tjph.776138

Abstract

Objective: Excess mortality is a concept used in Epidemiology and Public Health, expressing the number of deaths beyond what we expect to see under normal conditions. There are opinions that excess mortality is a better measure of determining the mortality of COVID-19, and is a fairer way to make international comparisons. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the deaths in İstanbul beyond the confirmed cases. Methods: A linear regression model was constructed with the mortality data of the last three years. Deaths in 2020 were predicted with the regression equation obtained. Excess mortality was assessed by assuming that 50% of the countrywide officially daily reported COVID-19 deaths occurred in Istanbul. Results: A huge difference of 5,147 deaths was found between observed and expected figures. In the report announced by the Ministry of Health as of July 12th, there were 2,735 official COVID-19 deaths in Istanbul in the first half of 2020, leaving a further 2412 unexplained deaths. Conclusions: During the COVID-19 pandemic, it was determined that there were more deaths than expected and reported COVID-19 deaths in Istanbul, as in many countries and cities around the world. A significant proportion of these excess deaths are thought to be unrecorded COVID-19 deaths due to presenting as PCR (-).

References

  • 1. Kramer, A., M. Kretzschmar, and K. Krickeberg, Modern infectious disease epidemiology : concepts, methods, mathematical models, and public health. 2010, New York ; London: Springer.
  • 2. Noah, N.D., Controlling communicable disease. 2006, Maidenhead: Open University Press.
  • 3. Hui, D.S., G.A. Rossi, and S.L. Johnston, SARS, Mers and Other Viral Lung Infections. 2016, Sheffield: European Respiratory Society.
  • 4. Howard, N., E. Sondorp, and A.t. Veen, Conflict and health. Understanding public health series. 2012, Maidenhead ; New York: Open University Press. xvii, 197 p.
  • 5. Hawker, J., Communicable disease control and health protection handbook. 3rd ed. ed. 2012, Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.
  • 6. WHO and ECDC. EuroMOMO. 2020 15.05.2020]; Available from: https://www.euromomo.eu/.
  • 7. Krelle, H., C. Barclay, and C. Tallack. What is the fairest way to compare COVID-19 deaths internationally? 17.07.2020]; Available from: file:///C:/Users/Thsk/OneDrive/Attachments/Understanding%20excess%20mortality%20_%20The%20Health%20Foundation.html.
  • 8. HaberTürk. İllere göre vaka ve ölüm sayıları 2 Nisan. 20220 15.05.2020]; Available from: https://www.haberturk.com/corona-turkiye-haritasi-2-nisan-corona-virus-turkiye-illere-gore-vaka-sayisi-il-il-2632588.
  • 9. Wikipedi. Türkiye'de COVID-19 pandemisi. 16.07.2020]; Available from: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%BCrkiye%27de_COVID-19_pandemisi#cite_note-145.
  • 10. Sağlık Bakanlığı, Covid-19 Durum Raporu 6-12 Temmuz Haftası. 2020.
  • 11. Ai, T., et al., Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases. Radiology, 2020. 296(2): p. E32-E40.
  • 12. Kucirka, L.M., et al., Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure. Ann Intern Med, 2020.
  • 13. Çoktan, G., İstanbul'da 20 Yıl Sonra Mezar Yeri Yok, in Milliyet Gazetesi. 2020.
  • 14. İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi. Vefat Bilgisi Sorgulama. 14.07.2020]; Available from: https://www.turkiye.gov.tr/istanbul-buyuksehir-belediyesi-vefat-sorgulama.
  • 15. The Economist. Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries. 17.07.2020]; Available from: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries.
  • 16. New York City Department of, H. and C.-R.T. Mental Hygiene, Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak - New York City, March 11-May 2, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 2020. 69(19): p. 603-605.
There are 16 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Health Care Administration
Journal Section Original Research
Authors

Mahmut Yardım 0000-0002-4130-8883

Sultan Eser 0000-0003-4427-4540

Publication Date December 6, 2020
Submission Date August 4, 2020
Acceptance Date November 15, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020

Cite

APA Yardım, M., & Eser, S. (2020). COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği. Turkish Journal of Public Health, 18(COVID-19 Special), 14-24. https://doi.org/10.20518/tjph.776138
AMA Yardım M, Eser S. COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği. TJPH. December 2020;18(COVID-19 Special):14-24. doi:10.20518/tjph.776138
Chicago Yardım, Mahmut, and Sultan Eser. “COVID-19 Pandemisi Ve Fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği”. Turkish Journal of Public Health 18, no. COVID-19 Special (December 2020): 14-24. https://doi.org/10.20518/tjph.776138.
EndNote Yardım M, Eser S (December 1, 2020) COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği. Turkish Journal of Public Health 18 COVID-19 Special 14–24.
IEEE M. Yardım and S. Eser, “COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği”, TJPH, vol. 18, no. COVID-19 Special, pp. 14–24, 2020, doi: 10.20518/tjph.776138.
ISNAD Yardım, Mahmut - Eser, Sultan. “COVID-19 Pandemisi Ve Fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği”. Turkish Journal of Public Health 18/COVID-19 Special (December 2020), 14-24. https://doi.org/10.20518/tjph.776138.
JAMA Yardım M, Eser S. COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği. TJPH. 2020;18:14–24.
MLA Yardım, Mahmut and Sultan Eser. “COVID-19 Pandemisi Ve Fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği”. Turkish Journal of Public Health, vol. 18, no. COVID-19 Special, 2020, pp. 14-24, doi:10.20518/tjph.776138.
Vancouver Yardım M, Eser S. COVID-19 pandemisi ve fazladan ölümler: İstanbul örneği. TJPH. 2020;18(COVID-19 Special):14-2.

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