Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı

Adil Batuhan Aktaş

doi:10.26513/tocd.1809655

TR EN

Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Donald Trump yönetiminde alınan Kasım Süleymani suikast kararını Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı çerçevesinde ele almaktadır. Çalışmada karar anı ve sürecin işleyişi, dönemin üst düzey yetkililerinin anı kitapları üzerinden analiz edilmiştir. Bu noktada karar biriminin baskın lider olduğu tespit edilerek Trump’ın liderlik tarzını ortaya koymak adına gerçekleştirdiği söyleşiler Liderlik Özelliği Analizi’ne (LTA) tabi tutulmuştur. Bulgular Trump’ın siyasi kısıtlamalara meydan okuyan, bilgiye açık, ilişki odaklı ve öngörülemez bir liderlik profiline sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu skorlar Trump’ın suikast kararının alınması sürecindeki davranışlarıyla uyuşmaktadır. Çalışma, Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı’nın karar alma mekanizmalarını anlamadaki açıklayıcı gücünü gösterirken, aynı zamanda kaynakların güvenilirliği ve liderlik tarzı kategorilerindeki kapsayıcılık sorunlarının yol açtığı sınırlılıklara dikkat çekmektedir.

Keywords

Dış Politika Analizi, Donald Trump, Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı, Kasım Süleymani, Liderlik Özelliği Analizi

References

Ak, Ö. (2009). Dış politika analizi ve liderlik: Süleymaniye krizi sürecinde R.T. Erdoğan örneği [Yüksek lisans tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi]. https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezDetay.jsp?id=_qAEBY8KvscPGWJ5HqGqWg&no=of654yQsdELVU4vo5Dgatw
Balcı, A., & Efe, İ. (2021). Exogenous dynamics and leadership traits: A study of change in the personality traits of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. All Azimuth, 10(2), ss. 149-164. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.956105
BBC (2020, 15 Aralık). The White House Revolving Door: Who's Gone?. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39826934
Bentley, M., & Lerner, A. B. (2021). Introduction: Trump and unpredictability in international relations. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 34(3), ss. 348–359. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2021.1919862
Clarke, J. (2025, 15 Ekim). What tariffs has Trump announced and why? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn93e12rypgo
Çuhadar E., Kaarbo, J., Kesgin, B. & Özkeçeci-Taner, B. (2017). Personality or role? Comparisons of Turkish leaders across different institutional positions. Political Psychology, 38(1), ss. 39-54. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12333
Dyson, S. B. (2006). Personality and foreign policy: Tony Blair’s Iraq decisions. Foreign Policy Analysis, 2(3), ss. 289-306. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2006.00031.x
Esper, M. (2022). A sacred oath: Memoirs of a secretery of defense during extraordinary times. Harper Collins.
Fisher, M., & Taub, A. (2020, 7 Ocak). A one-word accusation swirls around Trump’s deadly strike: Assassination. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/world/middleeast/iran-soleimani-assassination.html
Forgey, Q. (2020, 1 Mayıs). They have an obligation to present the evidence’: Dem lawmakers skeptical of intel behind Soleimani strike. Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/05/trump-soleimani-strike-van-hollen-democrats-094041

Foster, D. M., & Keller, J.W. (2014). Leaders’ cognitive complexity, distrust, and the diversionary use of force. Foreign Policy Analysis, 10(3), ss. 205-223. https://doi.org/10.1111/fpa.12019
Gearan, A., & Itkowitz, C. (2020, 14 Şubat). White House memo on Soleimani strike makes no mention of imminent threat. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-memo-on-soleimani-strike-makes-no-mention-of-imminent-threat/2020/02/14/651ce330-4f70-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html
George, A. L. (1969). The “operational code”: A neglected approach to the study of political leaders and decision-making. International Studies Quarterly, 13(2), ss. 190–222. https://doi.org/10.2307/3013944
Graham, A. T. (1971). Essence of decision: Explaining the Cuban missile crisis. Little, Brown, and Company. Halperin, M. H. (1974). Bureaucratic politics and foreign policy. The Brookings Institution.
Hermann, M. G. (1980). Explaining foreign policy behavior using the personal characteristics of political leaders. International Studies Quarterly, 24(1), ss. 7-46. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600126
Hermann, M. G. (1993). Leaders and foreign policy decision-making. D. Caldwell & T. J. McKeown (Ed.), Diplomacy, Force and Leadership: Essays In Honor of Alexander L. George (ss. 77-94). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429037535-7
Hermann, M. G. (2001). How decision units shape foreign policy: A theoretical framework. International Studies Review, 3(2), ss. 47-81. https://doi.org/10.1111/1521-9488.00234
Hermann, M. G. (2003). Assessing leadership style: Trait analysis. J. M. Post (Ed.) The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders (ss. 178–212). MI: The University of Michigan Press.
Hermann, M. G., & Hermann, C. (1989). Who makes foreign policy decisions and how: An empirical inquiry. International Studies Quarterly, 33(4), ss. 361-387. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600518
Hermann, M. G., Preston, T., Korany, B., & Shaw, T. M. (2001). Who leads matters: The effects of powerful individuals. International Studies Review, 3(2), ss. 83–131. https://doi.org/10.1111/1521-9488.00235
Hermann, M. G., & Gerard, C. (2009). The contributions of leadership to the movement from violence to incorporation. B. W. Dayton & L. Kriesberg (Ed.), Conflict transformation and peacebuilding (ss. 30-44). Routledge.
Hudson, J., Dawsey, J., Harris, S., & Lamothe, D. (2020, 6 Ocak). Killing of Soleimani follows long push from Pompeo for aggressive action against Iran, but airstrike brings serious risks. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/killing-of-soleimani-follows-long-push-from-pompeo-for-aggressive-action-against-iran-but-airstrike-brings-serious-risks/2020/01/05/092a8e00-2f7d-11ea-be79-83e793dbcaef_story.html
Levine, N., & Young, M. (2014). Leadership trait analysis and threat assessment with Profiler Plus. Proceedings of ILC 2014 on 8th International Lisp Conference, Montreal. https://doi.org/10.1145/2635648.2635657
Lippman, D., Morgan W., McGraw M., & Toosi N. (2020, 3 Ocak). How Trump decided to kill Iran’s Soleimani. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/how-trump-decided-to-kill-irans-soleimani/
Liptak, K., & Collins, K. (2020, 4 Ocak). How Trump’s decision unfolded to kill a top Iranian general. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/03/politics/donald-trump-qasem-soleimani-tick-tock-timeline
Maruf, R. (2025, 26 Nisan). Confused about Trump’s tariff war? There’s a good reason for that. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/26/business/everything-you-missed-in-the-economy-this-week
McKenzie, K. F. (2024). The melting point: High command and war in the 21st century. Naval Institute Press.
Morin, J.-F., & Paquin, J. (2018). Foreign policy analysis: A toolbox. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
Nau, H. R. (2021). Trump and America’s foreign policy traditions. Renshon, S. A., & Suedfeld, P. (Ed.), The Trump Doctrine and the Emerging International System: The Evolving American Presidency (ss. 71-97), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45050-2_3
Özdamar, Ö., Halistoprak, B. T., & Young, M. (2023). Do campaign speeches predict foreign policy? An operational code and leadership trait analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA policies. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 20(80), ss. 73-91. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1300777
Öztop, F. A. (2016). Karar birimi kuramı çerçevesinde Türk dış politikasının analizi: 1 Mart 2003 tezkeresi örneği. Uluslararası Politik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(2), ss. 33-45. https://doi.org/10.25272/j.2149-8539.2015.1.2.04
Patrick, S. (2025). The death of the world America made. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/02/trump-executive-order-treaties-organizations?lang=en Pence, M. (2022). So help me god. Simon & Schuster.
Pompeo, M. (2022). Never give an inch. Harper Collins.
Preston, T. (2001). The president and his inner circle: Leadership style and the advisory process in foreign affairs. Columbia University Press.
Reuters ( 2005, 23 Haziran). World Reaction to US Attacks on Iranian Nuclear Sites. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/world-leaders-react-us-attack-iran-2025-06-22
Ryan, M., Dawsey, J., Lamothe, D., & Hudson, J. (2020, 4 Ocak). How Trump decided to kill a top Iranian general. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/how-trump-decided-to-kill-a-top-iranian-general/2020/01/03/77ce3cc4-2e62-11ea-bcd4-24597950008f_story.html
Sarı Ertem, H. (2017). Reflections of beliefs and worldviews of the Turkish ruling elite on the Syria crises. F. Aksu & H. Sarı Ertem (Ed.), Analysing foreign policy crises in Turkey: Conceptual, theoretical and practical discussions (ss. 112-143). Cambridge Scholars Publishing.
Schafer, M., & Crichlow, S. (2010). Groupthink versus high-quality decision making in international relations. Columbia University Press.
Sprout, H., & Sprout, M. (1956). Manmilieu relationship hypotheses in the context of international politics. Center for International Studies, Princeton University.
Thiers, C., & Wehner, L. (2022). The personality traits of populist leaders and their foreign policies: Hugo Chávez and Donald Trump. International Studies Quarterly, 66(1), ss. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab083
Vock, I. (2025, 24 Mart). Why does Trump want Greenland and what do its people think? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74x4m71pmjo
Wiedekind, J., & Böller, F. (2025). Beyond stable alliances: uncertainty at the dawn of Trump’s second act. Z Politikwiss, 35, ss. 67–74. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41358-025-00401-4
Young, M. (2024). Textual assessment of leaders individual differences: Exploring TALID. Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity Faculty Scholarship, 13. https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/ehc_fac_scholar/13
Zraick, K. (2020, 3 Ocak). What to know about the death of Iranian General Suleimani. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/suleimani-dead.html

Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

International Relations (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Adil Batuhan Aktaş ^*
0000-0002-5829-1766
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 25, 2025

Submission Date

October 23, 2025

Acceptance Date

December 22, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 12 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1809655

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA59EB73XA

APA

Aktaş, A. B. (2025). Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 109-144. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1809655

AMA

1.Aktaş AB. Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı. TJMES. 2025;12(2):109-144. doi:10.26513/tocd.1809655

Chicago

Aktaş, Adil Batuhan. 2025. “Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı”. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi 12 (2): 109-44. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1809655.

EndNote

Aktaş AB (December 1, 2025) Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi 12 2 109–144.

IEEE

[1]A. B. Aktaş, “Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı”, TJMES, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 109–144, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.26513/tocd.1809655.

ISNAD

Aktaş, Adil Batuhan. “Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı”. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi 12/2 (December 1, 2025): 109-144. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1809655.

JAMA

1.Aktaş AB. Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı. TJMES. 2025;12:109–144.

MLA

Aktaş, Adil Batuhan. “Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı”. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 2, Dec. 2025, pp. 109-44, doi:10.26513/tocd.1809655.

Vancouver

1.Adil Batuhan Aktaş. Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı. TJMES. 2025 Dec. 1;12(2):109-44. doi:10.26513/tocd.1809655

The published articles in TJMES are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı

Karar Birimleri Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde ABD’nin Kasım Süleymani’ye Suikast Kararı

Abstract

Keywords

The US Decision to Assassinate Qasem Soleimani Within the Framework of the Decision Units Approach

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite