Dengeleme Aracılığıyla Güç Dengesi Oluşturma: İran’ın Irak Kürtleri ile İlişkileri (2011-2018)

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 127 - 149, 31.12.2021

Muhammet Fatih Özkan , Gürol Baba

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.928579

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Arap Baharı sonrasında Irak Kürt bölgesinde yaşanan gelişmeler bağlamında, İran’ın Bağdat’la Erbil arasındaki güç dengesini koruma çabaları analiz edilmektedir. İran’ın söz konusu güç dengesini sağlamaya yönelik stratejileri bu kavramın bir alt unsuru olan dengeleme yöntemlerinin varsayımlarıyla önemli benzerlikler göstermektedir. Öte yandan, devletleri dengeleme davranışına başvurmaya motive eden faktörlerle, İran’ı Irak’ta dengeleme yönünde bir strateji benimsemeye sevk eden koşullar arasında da benzerlikler görülmektedir. Güç dengesine dair tanımlardan hareketle bu kavramın bir dış politika stratejisi olarak da kullanılabileceği hipotezine dayanılarak bu çalışmada, İran’ın Irak Kürtleriyle ilişkilerinin dengeleme aracılığıyla güç dengesini sağlama önermesi üzerinden açıklanabileceği iddia edilmektedir. Bu iddiayı somutlaştırmak adına çalışma, yöntem olarak 2011 sonrasında yaşanan bazı siyasi gelişmeleri örnek olay incelemeleri olarak ele almaktadır. Bunların başında Arap Baharı’nın etkilerinin Irak Kürt bölgesinde görülmesi sonrasında Kürt partiler arasında ortaya çıkan rekabet durumu gelmektedir. Bir diğer önemli mesele, DAEŞ terör örgütünün Kürt bölgelerine saldırması ve son olarak Eylül 2017’de Irak’ın kuzeyinde bir bağımsızlık referandumunun gerçekleştirilmesidir. Özetle, bu çalışmada tüm bu gelişmeler sırasında benimsenen İran dış politikası, devletlerin dengeleme motivasyonları ve stratejileri bağlamında analiz edilmektedir.

Keywords

Güç Dengesi, Dengeleme, İran Dış Politikası, Irak, Kürtler

Generating Balance of Power via Balancing: Iran’s Relations with the Iraqi Kurds (2011-2018)

Abstract

This article analyses Iran’s efforts to maintain the balance of power between Baghdad and Erbil within the context of the developments in the Iraqi Kurdish region after the Arab Spring. Iran’s strategies to maintain this balance have shown similarities with the assumptions of balancing, which is a sub-element of balance of power. There are also significant similarities between the factors that motivate states to resort to the balancing behavior and the circumstances that urge Iran to adopt a strategy for balancing in Iraq. By utilizing various conceptualizations of balance of power and relying on the assumption that this concept could be applied as a foreign policy strategy, this study argues that Iran’s relations with the Iraqi Kurds can be explained within the framework of ensuring balance of power via balancing. To clarify this argument, the study uses a case study methodology regarding some of the political developments after 2011. The most important of these issues was the rivalry between Kurdish parties after the Arab Spring’s effects in the region. Another significant development was the attack of ISIS on Kurdish regions and lastly the holding of an independence referendum in northern Iraq in September 2017. Taken together, the foreign policy of Iran is analyzed in the context of states’ balancing motivations and strategies.

Keywords

Balance of Power, Balancing, Foreign Policy of Iran, Iraq, Kurds

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