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Dengeleme Aracılığıyla Güç Dengesi Oluşturma: İran’ın Irak Kürtleri ile İlişkileri (2011-2018)

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 127 - 149, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.928579

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Arap Baharı sonrasında Irak Kürt bölgesinde yaşanan gelişmeler bağlamında, İran’ın Bağdat’la Erbil arasındaki güç dengesini koruma çabaları analiz edilmektedir. İran’ın söz konusu güç dengesini sağlamaya yönelik stratejileri bu kavramın bir alt unsuru olan dengeleme yöntemlerinin varsayımlarıyla önemli benzerlikler göstermektedir. Öte yandan, devletleri dengeleme davranışına başvurmaya motive eden faktörlerle, İran’ı Irak’ta dengeleme yönünde bir strateji benimsemeye sevk eden koşullar arasında da benzerlikler görülmektedir. Güç dengesine dair tanımlardan hareketle bu kavramın bir dış politika stratejisi olarak da kullanılabileceği hipotezine dayanılarak bu çalışmada, İran’ın Irak Kürtleriyle ilişkilerinin dengeleme aracılığıyla güç dengesini sağlama önermesi üzerinden açıklanabileceği iddia edilmektedir. Bu iddiayı somutlaştırmak adına çalışma, yöntem olarak 2011 sonrasında yaşanan bazı siyasi gelişmeleri örnek olay incelemeleri olarak ele almaktadır. Bunların başında Arap Baharı’nın etkilerinin Irak Kürt bölgesinde görülmesi sonrasında Kürt partiler arasında ortaya çıkan rekabet durumu gelmektedir. Bir diğer önemli mesele, DAEŞ terör örgütünün Kürt bölgelerine saldırması ve son olarak Eylül 2017’de Irak’ın kuzeyinde bir bağımsızlık referandumunun gerçekleştirilmesidir. Özetle, bu çalışmada tüm bu gelişmeler sırasında benimsenen İran dış politikası, devletlerin dengeleme motivasyonları ve stratejileri bağlamında analiz edilmektedir.

References

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  • Chatterjee, Partha. “The Classical Balance of Theory.” Journal of Peace Research 9, no. 1 (Mart 1972): 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1177/002234337200900104.
  • Claude, Inis L. Power and International Relations. New York: Random House, Inc., 1962.
  • David, Steven R. “Explaining the Third World Alignment.” World Politics 43, no. 2 (Ocak 1991): 233-56. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010472.
  • Denk, Aytaç. “Balance of Power Theory Meets Al-Qaeda: Dynamics of Non-State Actor Balancing in Postinternational Politics.” Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Bilkent Üniversitesi, 2008.
  • Devine, James. “Iran versus ISIL.” Insight Turkey 17, no. 2 (İlkbahar 2015): 21-34.
  • Eisenstadt, Michael, Michael Knights and Ahmed Ali. “Iran’s Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran’s Whole-of-Government Approach.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, no. 111 (Nisan 2011). https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/3364.
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  • Gellman, Peter. “The Elusive Explanation: Balance of Power ‘Theory’ and the Origins of World War I.” Review of International Studies 15, no. 2 (Nisan 1989): 155-82.
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  • Gunter, Michael M. “Unrecognized De Facto States in World Politics: The Kurds.” The Brown Journal of World Affairs 20, no. 11 (İlkbahar/Yaz 2014): 161-178.
  • He, Kai and Huiyun Feng. “If Not Soft Balancing, Then What? Reconsidering Soft Balancing and U.S. Policy Toward China.” Security Studies 17, no. 2, (Haziran 2008): 363-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410802098776.
  • He, Kai. “Undermining Adversaries: Unipolarity, Threat Perception, and Negative Balancing Strategies after the Cold War.” Security Studies 21, no. 2 (Mayıs 2012): 154-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2012.679201.
  • Heywood, Andrew. The Key Concepts in Politics and International Relations. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.
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  • Josselin, Daphné and William Wallace. “Non-state Actors in World Politics: the Lessons.” içinde Non-state Actors in World Politics. Edited by Daphné Josselin and William Wallace, 251-60. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001.
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  • Lieber, Keir A. and Gerard Alexander. “Waiting for Balancing: Why the World Is Not Pushing Back?.” International Security 30, no. 1 (Yaz 2005): 109-39.
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  • Nexon, Daniel H. “The Balance of Power in the Balance.” World Politics 61, no. 2 (Nisan 2009): 330-59.
  • Nye, Joseph S. Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. New York: Basic Books, 1990.
  • Olson, Robert. Kürt Meselesi ve Türkiye-İran İlişkileri. Çev. Hikmet İlhan. İstanbul: Avesta Yayınları, 2010.
  • Pape, Robert A. “Soft Balancing against the United States.” International Security 30, no. 1 (Yaz 2005): 7-45.
  • Paul, Thazha V. “Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of the Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance.” içinde Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, edited by Thazha V. Paul, James Wirtz and Michel Fortmann, 1-25. Standford: Standford University Press, 2004.
  • Peşneg, Erdeşir ve Zehrâ Zomerdî. “Berresiye tehvolâte seyâsîye ‘Irâq der perteve seyâsete hârêciyye Îrân, Tôrkiye ve ‘Arebêstân.” Feslenâme Sêyâsete Hârêcî 28, no. 3 (Sonbahar 2014): 477-99. http://fp.ipisjournals.ir/article_18322_098334549632d755ad41fb1191dbc735.pdf.
  • Philips, David L. The Kurdish Spring: A New Map of the Middle East. London: Transaction Publishers, 2016.
  • Schweller, Randall L. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Reallist Theory of Underbalancing.” International Security 29, no. 2 (Sonbahar 2004): 159-201.
  • Sinkaya, Bayram. “The Kurdish Question in Iran and its effects on Iran-Turkey relations.” British Journal of Middle Eastern States 45, no. 5 (Aralık 2018): 840-59. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2017.1361315.
  • Spykman, Nicholas J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1970.
  • Tanchum, Micha’el. “Between Ankara and Tehran: How the Scramble for Kurdistan Can Reshape Regional Relations.” Strategic Assessment 17, no. 3 (Ekim 2014): 67-80.
  • Uyanık, Mehmet. “Turkey and the KRG After the Referendum: Blocking the Path to Independence.” CSIS Turkey Project, 22 Kasım 2017. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/171122_Turkey_and_the_KRG.pdf. Wagner, R. Harrison. “Peace, War, and the Balance of Power.” The American Political Science Review, 88, no 3 (Eylül 1994): 593-607. https://doi.org/10.2307/2944797.
  • Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances. New York: Cornell University Press, 1987.
  • Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics. Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.
  • Wright, Quincy. A Study of War. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1970.
  • Yıldız, Kerim and Tanyel B. Tayşi. The Kurds in Iran: The Past, Present, and Future. London: Pluto Press, 2007.
  • Zweiri, Mahjoob. “Arab-Iranian Relations: New Realities?.” içinde Iran’s Foreign Policy: From Khatami to Ahmadinejad, edited by Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Mahjoob Zweiri, 115-128. Lebanon: Ithaka Press, 2008.
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Generating Balance of Power via Balancing: Iran’s Relations with the Iraqi Kurds (2011-2018)

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 127 - 149, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.928579

Abstract

This article analyses Iran’s efforts to maintain the balance of power between Baghdad and Erbil within the context of the developments in the Iraqi Kurdish region after the Arab Spring. Iran’s strategies to maintain this balance have shown similarities with the assumptions of balancing, which is a sub-element of balance of power. There are also significant similarities between the factors that motivate states to resort to the balancing behavior and the circumstances that urge Iran to adopt a strategy for balancing in Iraq. By utilizing various conceptualizations of balance of power and relying on the assumption that this concept could be applied as a foreign policy strategy, this study argues that Iran’s relations with the Iraqi Kurds can be explained within the framework of ensuring balance of power via balancing. To clarify this argument, the study uses a case study methodology regarding some of the political developments after 2011. The most important of these issues was the rivalry between Kurdish parties after the Arab Spring’s effects in the region. Another significant development was the attack of ISIS on Kurdish regions and lastly the holding of an independence referendum in northern Iraq in September 2017. Taken together, the foreign policy of Iran is analyzed in the context of states’ balancing motivations and strategies.

References

  • Balcı, Ali. The PKK-Kurdistan Worker’s Party’s Regional Politics: During and the After the Cold War. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
  • Chatterjee, Partha. “The Classical Balance of Theory.” Journal of Peace Research 9, no. 1 (Mart 1972): 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1177/002234337200900104.
  • Claude, Inis L. Power and International Relations. New York: Random House, Inc., 1962.
  • David, Steven R. “Explaining the Third World Alignment.” World Politics 43, no. 2 (Ocak 1991): 233-56. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010472.
  • Denk, Aytaç. “Balance of Power Theory Meets Al-Qaeda: Dynamics of Non-State Actor Balancing in Postinternational Politics.” Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Bilkent Üniversitesi, 2008.
  • Devine, James. “Iran versus ISIL.” Insight Turkey 17, no. 2 (İlkbahar 2015): 21-34.
  • Eisenstadt, Michael, Michael Knights and Ahmed Ali. “Iran’s Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran’s Whole-of-Government Approach.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, no. 111 (Nisan 2011). https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/3364.
  • Elman, Colin. “Introduction: Appraising Balance of Power Theory.” içinde Realism and Balancing of Power: A New Debate, edited by John A. Vasquez ve Colin Elman, 1-22. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2003.
  • Gellman, Peter. “The Elusive Explanation: Balance of Power ‘Theory’ and the Origins of World War I.” Review of International Studies 15, no. 2 (Nisan 1989): 155-82.
  • Gunter, Michael M. “Arab-Kurdish Relations and the future of Iraq.” Third World Quarterly 32, no. 9 (Ekim 2011): 1623-1635. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2011.618649.
  • Gunter, Michael M. “Unrecognized De Facto States in World Politics: The Kurds.” The Brown Journal of World Affairs 20, no. 11 (İlkbahar/Yaz 2014): 161-178.
  • He, Kai and Huiyun Feng. “If Not Soft Balancing, Then What? Reconsidering Soft Balancing and U.S. Policy Toward China.” Security Studies 17, no. 2, (Haziran 2008): 363-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410802098776.
  • He, Kai. “Undermining Adversaries: Unipolarity, Threat Perception, and Negative Balancing Strategies after the Cold War.” Security Studies 21, no. 2 (Mayıs 2012): 154-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2012.679201.
  • Heywood, Andrew. The Key Concepts in Politics and International Relations. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.
  • Hoffmann, Stanley. “Weighing the Balance of Power.” Foreign Affairs 50, no. 4 (Temmuz 1972): 618-43. https://doi.org/10.2307/20037937.
  • Josselin, Daphné and William Wallace. “Non-state Actors in World Politics: the Lessons.” içinde Non-state Actors in World Politics. Edited by Daphné Josselin and William Wallace, 251-60. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001.
  • Kekilli, Bünyamin ve Can Acun. “Referandum Sonrası Kerkük ve Tartışmalı Bölgelerin Durumu: Türkiye’nin Pozisyonu.” SETA Perspektif, no. 181 (Ekim 2017). https://setav.org/assets/uploads/2017/10/181.Referandum-Sonrası-Kerkük-ve-Tartışmalı-Bölgelerin-Durumu.pdf.
  • Levy, Jack S. “What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When.” içinde Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, edited by Thazha V. Paul, James Wirtz and Michel Fortmann, 29-51. Standford: Standford University Press, 2004.
  • Lieber, Keir A. and Gerard Alexander. “Waiting for Balancing: Why the World Is Not Pushing Back?.” International Security 30, no. 1 (Yaz 2005): 109-39.
  • Martin, Susan B. “From Balance of Power to Balancing Behavior: The Long and Winding Road.” içinde Perspectives on Structural Realism, edited by Andrew K. Hamani, 61-82. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.
  • Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1985.
  • Mustafa, Mohammed Salih. “Iran’s Role in the Kurdistan Region.” Aljazeera Report, 20 Nisan 2016. https://studies.aljazeera.net/sites/default/files/articles/reports/documents/111270e6cbb84b05950cdf51adbe74a9_100.pdf.
  • Natali, Denise. “The Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Stabilizer or Spoiler?.” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs14, no. 2 (Yaz/Sonbahar 2013): 71-79.
  • Nexon, Daniel H. “The Balance of Power in the Balance.” World Politics 61, no. 2 (Nisan 2009): 330-59.
  • Nye, Joseph S. Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. New York: Basic Books, 1990.
  • Olson, Robert. Kürt Meselesi ve Türkiye-İran İlişkileri. Çev. Hikmet İlhan. İstanbul: Avesta Yayınları, 2010.
  • Pape, Robert A. “Soft Balancing against the United States.” International Security 30, no. 1 (Yaz 2005): 7-45.
  • Paul, Thazha V. “Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of the Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance.” içinde Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, edited by Thazha V. Paul, James Wirtz and Michel Fortmann, 1-25. Standford: Standford University Press, 2004.
  • Peşneg, Erdeşir ve Zehrâ Zomerdî. “Berresiye tehvolâte seyâsîye ‘Irâq der perteve seyâsete hârêciyye Îrân, Tôrkiye ve ‘Arebêstân.” Feslenâme Sêyâsete Hârêcî 28, no. 3 (Sonbahar 2014): 477-99. http://fp.ipisjournals.ir/article_18322_098334549632d755ad41fb1191dbc735.pdf.
  • Philips, David L. The Kurdish Spring: A New Map of the Middle East. London: Transaction Publishers, 2016.
  • Schweller, Randall L. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Reallist Theory of Underbalancing.” International Security 29, no. 2 (Sonbahar 2004): 159-201.
  • Sinkaya, Bayram. “The Kurdish Question in Iran and its effects on Iran-Turkey relations.” British Journal of Middle Eastern States 45, no. 5 (Aralık 2018): 840-59. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2017.1361315.
  • Spykman, Nicholas J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1970.
  • Tanchum, Micha’el. “Between Ankara and Tehran: How the Scramble for Kurdistan Can Reshape Regional Relations.” Strategic Assessment 17, no. 3 (Ekim 2014): 67-80.
  • Uyanık, Mehmet. “Turkey and the KRG After the Referendum: Blocking the Path to Independence.” CSIS Turkey Project, 22 Kasım 2017. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/171122_Turkey_and_the_KRG.pdf. Wagner, R. Harrison. “Peace, War, and the Balance of Power.” The American Political Science Review, 88, no 3 (Eylül 1994): 593-607. https://doi.org/10.2307/2944797.
  • Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances. New York: Cornell University Press, 1987.
  • Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics. Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.
  • Wright, Quincy. A Study of War. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1970.
  • Yıldız, Kerim and Tanyel B. Tayşi. The Kurds in Iran: The Past, Present, and Future. London: Pluto Press, 2007.
  • Zweiri, Mahjoob. “Arab-Iranian Relations: New Realities?.” içinde Iran’s Foreign Policy: From Khatami to Ahmadinejad, edited by Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Mahjoob Zweiri, 115-128. Lebanon: Ithaka Press, 2008.
  • ACE Project. Kanunê Esasî Cômhûrî İslâmi Îrân. Son erişim: 13 Ekim 2017. http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/asia/IR/iran-the-constitution-of-islamic-republic-of-iran.
  • Ahmed, Hevidar. “Iran Calls the Shot on PUK Leadership Issue.” Rudaw, 23 Mayıs 2013. http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/230520131.
  • Bilici, Salih ve İdris Okuducu. “IKBY’de Referandum Belirsizliği.” Anadolu Ajansı, 27 Temmuz 2017. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz-haber/ikbyde-referandum-belirsizligi/870652.
  • Chomani, Kamal. “Turkey, Iran influence in Iraqi Kurdistan politics.” Al-Monitor, 22 Kasım 2013. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2013/11/kurdistan-iran-turkey-rivalry-krg-election-cabinet.html.
  • Deutsche Welle. “Irak’ın yeni cumhurbaşkanı Berhem Salih.” Son erişim: 2 Ekim 2018. https://www.dw.com/tr/irakın-yeni-cumhurbaşkanı-berhem-salih/a-45734185.
  • IRNA. “Tekzibe heber hemkâriye İrân bâ Âmrikâ aleyhe Dâ‘eş.” Son erişim: 5 Eylül 2014. https://www.irna.ir/news/81300902/تكذیب-خبر-همكاری-ایران-با-آمریكا-علیه-داعش.
  • IRNA. “Sâle 2017 ve pâyâne ruyâyi İstiklâle İklime Kürdistân.” Son erişim: 31 Aralık 2017. https://www.irna.ir/news/82781639/سال-2017-و-پايان-روياي-استقلال-اقليم-كردستان.
  • Kittleson, Shelly. “US, Iran woo rival Kurdish factions in battle against IS.” Al-Monitor, 22 Eylül 2014. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2014/09/peshmerga-iraq-iran-kurd-isis-krg.html.
  • Malas, Nour and Joe Parkinson. “Iraq Crisis: Effort to Aid Kurdish Forces Puts Iran, U.S. on Same Side.” The Wall Street Journal, 15 Ağustos 2014. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-iran-rush-to-aid-kurdish-peshmerga-forces-1407976463.
  • Mejidyar, Ahmad. “Iran-Allied Iraqi Militia Group Threatens Violence over Kurdistan Independence Plan.” Middle East Institute, 08 Ağustos 2017. https://www.mei.edu/publications/iran-allied-iraqi-militia-group-threatens-violence-over-kurdistan-independence-plan.
  • Milani, Mohsen. “The Turbulent History Shaping Iran’s Opposition to an Independent Iraqi Kurdistan.” World Politics Review, 14 Kasım 2017. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/23610/the-turbulent-history-shaping-iran-s-opposition-to-an-independent-iraqi-kurdistan.
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There are 60 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Muhammet Fatih Özkan 0000-0002-2999-3793

Gürol Baba 0000-0001-9664-2363

Publication Date December 31, 2021
Acceptance Date September 2, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 8 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Özkan, M. F., & Baba, G. (2021). Dengeleme Aracılığıyla Güç Dengesi Oluşturma: İran’ın Irak Kürtleri ile İlişkileri (2011-2018). Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 127-149. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.928579

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