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Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects

Year 2015, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 78 - 84, 23.07.2016

Abstract

Transportation projects are high-cost investments. For this reason in order to perform correct decision making process special approaches and methods have to be used in feasibility analysis. Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) is a widely used method all over the world and in Turkey for the economical evaluation of the transportation projects. But, the most important disadvantage of this method is the difficulties in predicting the costs, missing and lacking data and the uncertainty in the long-term analysis period risks affecting the results negatively. In order to avoid this risk, protective measures such as sensitivity analysis and probability distributions are used in the traditional benefit – cost analysis. But, in a project where there are high uncertainties and approximate data are present the said methods are becoming insufficient in real-life applications. Especially, the countries with a quickly changing socio-economic structure, for the transportation projects having long-term analysis period there are uncertainties in predicting parameters such as traffic volumes, accident data, time value etc. As a result of all those items the evaluation of the feasibility of the transportation projects is always facing risks of wrong decision-making. Therefore, the need to develop a more sophisticated method eliminating all the uncertainties of the traditional benefit cost analysis becomes evident. This paper, aims to develop a model that will contribute to the traditionally widely used benefit cost analysis in economical evaluation of transport projects by the Turkish State Highway Authority. Through this proposed model it is also aimed to eliminate the missing and uncertain data and wrong estimations in feasibility analyses. As a result the paper is proposing an intelligent system framework, utilising The Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the transportation projects’ benefit cost analysis

References

  • Akbıyıklı, R. (2014). Mühendislik ekonomisi temel prensipleri ve uygulamaları. İkinci baskı. Birsen yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Aktan, C. C. & Sakal, M. (2006). Kamu yatırım projelerinde karar alma ve fayda maliyet analizi. Kamu mali yönetiminde stratejik planlama ve performans esaslı bütçeleme. Seçkin yayınevi, Ankara.
  • Bilgiç, Ş. & Evren G. (2002). Türkiye’de ulaştırma yatırımlarının değerlendirilmesi için bir yöntem önerisi. İtüdergisi/d mühendislik. Cilt:1, Sayı:2, 88-89.
  • FHWA, (2004). Life cycle cost analysis RealCost v.2.1. user manual. Office of asset management, USA.
  • Groumpos, P. P. (2010). Fuzzy cognitive maps: basic theories and their application to complex systems, Fuzzy cognitive maps studies in fuzziness and soft computing, Volume 247, Springer.
  • KGM, (2013). Karayolu ekonomisi ve proje değerlendirme teknikleri, karayolu temel kursu notları. Karayolları Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Kosko, B. (1986). "Fuzzy cognitive maps," International journal of man-machine studies, 24, pp. 65- 75.
  • Xirogiannis, G. & Stefanou, J. & Glykas, M. (2004). A fuzzy cognitive map approach to support urban design. Journal of expert systems with applications, 26(2).
  • Yaman, D. & Polat, S. (2009). A fuzzy cognitive map approach for effect-based operations: An illustrative case. Journal of information sciences, volume 179, ıssue 4, page 382-403.
Year 2015, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 78 - 84, 23.07.2016

Abstract

References

  • Akbıyıklı, R. (2014). Mühendislik ekonomisi temel prensipleri ve uygulamaları. İkinci baskı. Birsen yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Aktan, C. C. & Sakal, M. (2006). Kamu yatırım projelerinde karar alma ve fayda maliyet analizi. Kamu mali yönetiminde stratejik planlama ve performans esaslı bütçeleme. Seçkin yayınevi, Ankara.
  • Bilgiç, Ş. & Evren G. (2002). Türkiye’de ulaştırma yatırımlarının değerlendirilmesi için bir yöntem önerisi. İtüdergisi/d mühendislik. Cilt:1, Sayı:2, 88-89.
  • FHWA, (2004). Life cycle cost analysis RealCost v.2.1. user manual. Office of asset management, USA.
  • Groumpos, P. P. (2010). Fuzzy cognitive maps: basic theories and their application to complex systems, Fuzzy cognitive maps studies in fuzziness and soft computing, Volume 247, Springer.
  • KGM, (2013). Karayolu ekonomisi ve proje değerlendirme teknikleri, karayolu temel kursu notları. Karayolları Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Kosko, B. (1986). "Fuzzy cognitive maps," International journal of man-machine studies, 24, pp. 65- 75.
  • Xirogiannis, G. & Stefanou, J. & Glykas, M. (2004). A fuzzy cognitive map approach to support urban design. Journal of expert systems with applications, 26(2).
  • Yaman, D. & Polat, S. (2009). A fuzzy cognitive map approach for effect-based operations: An illustrative case. Journal of information sciences, volume 179, ıssue 4, page 382-403.
There are 9 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA56ED99EH
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Muhammed Emin Cihangir Bağdatlı This is me

Rıfat Akbıyıklı This is me

Aydın Demir This is me

Publication Date July 23, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 5 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Bağdatlı, M. E. C., Akbıyıklı, R., & Demir, A. (2016). Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects. TOJSAT, 5(3), 78-84.
AMA Bağdatlı MEC, Akbıyıklı R, Demir A. Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects. TOJSAT. July 2016;5(3):78-84.
Chicago Bağdatlı, Muhammed Emin Cihangir, Rıfat Akbıyıklı, and Aydın Demir. “Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects”. TOJSAT 5, no. 3 (July 2016): 78-84.
EndNote Bağdatlı MEC, Akbıyıklı R, Demir A (July 1, 2016) Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects. TOJSAT 5 3 78–84.
IEEE M. E. C. Bağdatlı, R. Akbıyıklı, and A. Demir, “Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects”, TOJSAT, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 78–84, 2016.
ISNAD Bağdatlı, Muhammed Emin Cihangir et al. “Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects”. TOJSAT 5/3 (July 2016), 78-84.
JAMA Bağdatlı MEC, Akbıyıklı R, Demir A. Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects. TOJSAT. 2016;5:78–84.
MLA Bağdatlı, Muhammed Emin Cihangir et al. “Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects”. TOJSAT, vol. 5, no. 3, 2016, pp. 78-84.
Vancouver Bağdatlı MEC, Akbıyıklı R, Demir A. Utilisation of Intelligent Systems in the Economical Evaluation of Transportation Projects. TOJSAT. 2016;5(3):78-84.