THE EFFECT OF BALTIC DRY INDEX AND DOLLAR INDEX ON ISTANBUL FREIGHT INDEX: INVESTİGATİON WİTH VAR ANALYSIS

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: IERFM 2025 Özel Sayı, 227 - 252, 14.03.2025

Meltem Kılıç , Aydın Gürbüz

https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.1515540

Abstract

Maritime transportation, the most widely used mode of transportation in international trade, is both cost-effective and offers the ability to deliver goods and services over a wide area. It plays a significant role, particularly in the transport of dry cargo, bulk cargo, and iron and steel products. The freight rates for these bulk cargos are tracked by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), with its daily value reported by the London-based Baltic Exchange. This index is regarded as a leading economic indicator in financial markets, similar to stock and commodity markets. This study focuses on the impact of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Dollar Index (DXY), which are key indicators in maritime trade, on the Istanbul Freight Index (ISTFIX). The study examines weekly data from the period between 2008 and 2024 using VAR analysis and Granger causality tests. According to the research results, as expected, the Baltic Dry Index positively affects the Istanbul Freight Index. On the other hand, the Dollar Index negatively affects the Istanbul Freight Index and is found to be a weak determinant. Furthermore, the causality results obtained within the scope of the study indicate a bidirectional causality relationship between BDI and ISTFIX.

Keywords

Baltic Dry Index, Dollar Index, Istanbul Freight Index, Maritime Transportation, VAR Analysis

BALTIK KURU YÜK ENDEKSİ VE DOLAR ENDEKSİNİN İSTANBUL NAVLUN ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: VAR ANALİZİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

Uluslararası ticarette en yaygın kullanılan taşıma türü olan denizyolu taşımacılığı hem maliyet açısından avantajlıdır hem de geniş bir alana mal ve hizmet sunma imkânı sağlar. Özellikle kuru yük, kuru dökme yük ve demir-çelik gibi ürünlerin taşımasında önemli rol oynamaktadır. Bu ürünlerden kuru dökme yük navlun oranları Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BDI) ile izlenir ve günlük değeri Londra merkezli Baltic Exchange tarafından raporlanır. Bu endeks, hisse senedi ve emtia piyasaları gibi mali piyasaların önde gelen ekonomik göstergesi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada deniz ticaretine yön veren göstergelerden Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BDI) ve Dolar Endeksinin (DXY) İstanbul Navlun Endeksi (ISTFIX) üzerindeki etkisine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında 2008 – 2024 dönemi arası haftalık veriler VAR analizi ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Araştırmanın sonuçlarına göre, beklentiler doğrultusunda Baltık kuru yük endeksinin İstanbul navlun endeksini pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Diğer taraftan, dolar endeksinin ise İstanbul navlun endeksini negatif yönde etkilediği ve zayıf bir belirleyicisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca çalışma kapsamında elde edilen nedensellik sonuçlarında BDI ile ISTFIX arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi, Dolar Endeksi, İstanbul Navlun Endeksi, Deniz Taşımacılığı, VAR Analizi.

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