INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, VEHICLE AND HOUSING SALES IN TURKEY

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: IERFM 2025 Özel Sayı, 107 - 122, 14.03.2025

Süleyman Gürbüz

https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.1516463

Abstract

In 2008, the economic problems and regional conflicts that emerged after the global economic crisis that affected the world made us feel that difficult times were approaching for our country's economy. In 2016, the attempted coup d'état and some domestic events, high foreign debts, etc. caused a sharp rise in foreign exchange rates, which led to a very rapid increase in inflation. Towards the end of 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic caused global and national supply problems, and the global inflation problem started to be felt due to the deteriorating monetary stability. In this process, it was observed that people living in Turkey invested in different instruments rather than holding cash in the face of high inflation. In this study, the interaction between inflation and housing and automobile sales, which have seen exorbitant price increases in the last 5 years, is analysed by econometric methods. The results show that there is no statistically significant causality relationship from housing sales to inflation. A unidirectional causality relationship is found from inflation rate to vehicle sales rates. In addition, a unidirectional causality relationship was found from the minimum wage, which was added to the study as a control variable, to housing sales and inflation

Keywords

Inflation, Housing, Vehicle, Structural Break

TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON, TAŞIT VE KONUT SATIŞLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

2008 yılında dünyayı etkileyen küresel ekonomik krizin ardından ortaya çıkan ekonomik sorunlar ve bölgesel çatışmalar, ülkemiz ekonomisi açısından zorlu dönemlerin yaklaştığını hissettirmekteydi. 2016 yılında gerçekleşen darbe teşebbüsü ve ülke içinde yaşanan bazı olaylar, yüksek dış borçlar vb. nedenlerle dövizde meydana gelen ani yükselişler, enflasyonda çok hızlı bir artışa neden olmuştur. 2019 yılının sonlarına doğru ortaya çıkan Covid-19 salgını ile de küresel ve ulusal anlamda tedarik sorunları ortaya çıkmış, bozulan parasal istikrar nedeniyle de küresel anlamda enflasyon sorunu hissedilmeye başlamıştır. Bu süreçte, Türkiye’de yaşayan kişilerin yüksek enflasyon karşısında elde nakit tutmadan ziyade farklı enstrümanlara yatırım yaptığı gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, son 5 yıl içerisinde fiyatlarında fahiş artışların gözlemlendiği konut ve otomobil satışlarının enflasyon ile nasıl bir etkileşim içerisinde olduğu ekonometrik yöntemlerle analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, konut satışlarından enflasyona doğru istatistiksel olarak nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Enflasyon oranından taşıt satış oranlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, çalışmaya kontrol değişken olarak eklenen asgari ücretten konut satışlarına ve enflasyona doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Enflasyon, Konut, Taşıt, Yapısal Kırılma

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