Gayrimenkul Hariç Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Belirsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2025, Volume: 39 Issue: 3, 270 - 288, 15.07.2025

Ferdi Akpiliç

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1611209

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye özelinde gayrimenkul hariç doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) ile çeşitli belirsizlik göstergeleri arasındaki ilişki ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği (GEPU), Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi (WUI), Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi (GPR), Korku Endeksi (VIX) ve İklim Politika Belirsizliği (CPU) göstergelerinin DYY üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Elde dilen bulgulara göre, VIX endeksi hariç tüm belirsizlik göstergeleri ile Türkiye’ye yönelik gayrimenkul hariç DYY girişleri arasında negatif istatistiksel bakımdan anlamlı bir ilişki yakalanmış olup belirsizliklerdeki artışlar DYY girişlerini azaltıcı yönde etki etmektedir. Özelikle GEPU’nun etkisi daha belirgindir. WUI ve GPR göstergelerine ilişkin küresel endeks değerlerinin Türkiye’ye özgü endeks değerlerine kıyasla DYY üzerinde daha etkili oldukları sonucuna varılmıştır. Belirsizlikler -ekonomik, politik, düzenleyici, jeopolitik veya iklimle ilgili- riskleri artırarak ve getirilerin öngörülebilirliğini azaltarak DYY akımlarını olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu etkileri hafifletmek için, politika yapıcılar tüm alanlarda belirsizliği azaltmak amacıyla kapsamlı, şeffaf ve tutarlı politikalar uygulamalıdır. İstikrarlı bir yatırım ve iş ortamı yaratmak yatırımcı güvenini güçlendirecek, ekonomik istikrarı iyileştirecek ve istikrarlı DYY girişlerini teşvik edecektir.

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım , Belirsizlik , ARDL

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investments (FDI) excluding real estate and various uncertainty indicators in Türkiye was examined with the ARDL model. The long-term impact of Global Economy Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), World Uncertainty Index (WUI), Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), Fear Index (VIX) and Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) indicators on FDI has been analyzed. According to findings, a negative statistically significant relationship has been found between all uncertainty indicators except the VIX index and FDI inflows to Türkiye, and increases in uncertainties have a decreasing effect on FDI inflows. In particular, the effect of GEPU is more pronounced. It has been concluded that global index values related to WUI and GPR indicators are more influential on FDI than index values specific to Türkiye. Uncertainties—economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, or climate-related—negatively affect FDI flows by increasing risks and reducing the predictability of returns. To mitigate these impacts, policymakers should implement comprehensive, transparent, and consistent policies to reduce uncertainty in all areas. Creating a stable investment and business environment will strengthen investor confidence, improve economic stability, and encourage stable FDI inflows.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment , Uncertainties , ARDL

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