Gayrimenkul Hariç Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Belirsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Ferdi Akpiliç

doi:10.16951/trendbusecon.1611209

TR EN

Gayrimenkul Hariç Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Belirsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye özelinde gayrimenkul hariç doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) ile çeşitli belirsizlik göstergeleri arasındaki ilişki ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği (GEPU), Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi (WUI), Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi (GPR), Korku Endeksi (VIX) ve İklim Politika Belirsizliği (CPU) göstergelerinin DYY üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Elde dilen bulgulara göre, VIX endeksi hariç tüm belirsizlik göstergeleri ile Türkiye’ye yönelik gayrimenkul hariç DYY girişleri arasında negatif istatistiksel bakımdan anlamlı bir ilişki yakalanmış olup belirsizliklerdeki artışlar DYY girişlerini azaltıcı yönde etki etmektedir. Özelikle GEPU’nun etkisi daha belirgindir. WUI ve GPR göstergelerine ilişkin küresel endeks değerlerinin Türkiye’ye özgü endeks değerlerine kıyasla DYY üzerinde daha etkili oldukları sonucuna varılmıştır. Belirsizlikler -ekonomik, politik, düzenleyici, jeopolitik veya iklimle ilgili- riskleri artırarak ve getirilerin öngörülebilirliğini azaltarak DYY akımlarını olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu etkileri hafifletmek için, politika yapıcılar tüm alanlarda belirsizliği azaltmak amacıyla kapsamlı, şeffaf ve tutarlı politikalar uygulamalıdır. İstikrarlı bir yatırım ve iş ortamı yaratmak yatırımcı güvenini güçlendirecek, ekonomik istikrarı iyileştirecek ve istikrarlı DYY girişlerini teşvik edecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım , Belirsizlik , ARDL

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investments (FDI) excluding real estate and various uncertainty indicators in Türkiye was examined with the ARDL model. The long-term impact of Global Economy Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), World Uncertainty Index (WUI), Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), Fear Index (VIX) and Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) indicators on FDI has been analyzed. According to findings, a negative statistically significant relationship has been found between all uncertainty indicators except the VIX index and FDI inflows to Türkiye, and increases in uncertainties have a decreasing effect on FDI inflows. In particular, the effect of GEPU is more pronounced. It has been concluded that global index values related to WUI and GPR indicators are more influential on FDI than index values specific to Türkiye. Uncertainties—economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, or climate-related—negatively affect FDI flows by increasing risks and reducing the predictability of returns. To mitigate these impacts, policymakers should implement comprehensive, transparent, and consistent policies to reduce uncertainty in all areas. Creating a stable investment and business environment will strengthen investor confidence, improve economic stability, and encourage stable FDI inflows.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment , Uncertainties , ARDL

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Econometric and Statistical Methods , International Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ferdi Akpiliç ^*
0000-0002-7692-4651
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

July 13, 2025

Publication Date

July 15, 2025

Submission Date

January 1, 2025

Acceptance Date

March 25, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 1970 Volume: 39 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1611209

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA83WF93HG

APA

Akpiliç, F. (2025). Gayrimenkul Hariç Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Belirsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Trends in Business and Economics, 39(3), 270-288. https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1611209

Content of this journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

29928

Gayrimenkul Hariç Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Belirsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Early Pub Date

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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