COVID-19 Döneminde Koruyucu Sarf Malzemelerin Tüketiminin Tahmin Edilmesi

Year 2023, Volume: 37 Issue: 2, 120 - 136, 15.04.2023

İlkay Saraçoğlu , Ramazan Yaman Çağrı Serdar Elgörmüş

Abstract

İnsanlık tarihinin başlangıcından bu yana yaşanan olağandışı dönemler kendine özgü düzenlerin oluş- masına neden olmuştur. Hastanelerde olağan dönemlerde çok önemli olmadığı öngörülen ve kolay yönetilebildiği varsayılan, maske, önlük ve dezenfektan gibi koruyucu sarf malzemelerinin kullanımı ve tedariği, 2019 koronavirüs hastalığı (COVID-19) pandemi dönemi ile birlikte kritik bir bakış açısı kazan- masına neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, öncelikle, bir hastane işleyişinde olağan durum sayılan 2019 yılı verileri dikkate alınarak bu koruyucu ve önleyici malzemelerin tedarik, stok ve tüketim süreçleri değer- lendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın ikinci kısmında ise pandemi döneminin gelişmesi esnasında oluşan veriler dikkate alınarak, bu koruyucu ve önleyici sarf malzemelerin tedarik ve kullanımlarında oluşan farklı- laşmalar modellenmiştir. Koruyucu sarf malzemelerinin kullanımlarının tahminini modellemek için doktor, hemşire, idari personel, hasta sayısı ve ameliyat sayısı bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenlerdeki değişimin koruyucu sarf malzemeler üzerindeki değişimlerini incelemek amacıyla çok değişkenli doğrusal regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. N95 ve bağcıklı cerrahi maske ve lastikli maskenin tüketimi, COVID hasta sayısı ve sağlık çalışanı sayısı ile açıklanmıştır. El dezenfektan ve muayene eldiveni tüketimi doktor sayısı ve COVID hasta sayısı ile tahmin edilmiştir. Cerrahi eldiven tahmini, ameliyat sayısına bağlı olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, hastanelerde koruyucu sarf malzemelerinin tüketimlerinin tahmin edilmesine yardımcı olacak çok değişkenli modeller önerilmiştir.

Keywords

COVID-19, sağlık hizmeti sağlayıcıları, tıbbi sarf malzemeler, çoklu doğrusal regresyon, tahmin, koruyucu malzemeler

A Prediction for Medical Supplies Consumptions During Coronavirus Disease 2019

Abstract

Extraordinary periods experienced since the beginning of human history have caused the formation of specific patterns. The current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic we are experiencing has pro- vided critical viewpoint on the use and supply of preventive consumable materials like masks, gowns, and disinfectant. These are used as hygienic items to protect against infectious diseases and are assumed not to be very significant and easily managed in hospitals during normal periods. This study first assessed the supply, stock, and consumption processes for these protective and preventive items considering data from 2019, considered a normal period in hospital operation. In the second part of the study, the differences in supply and use of these items were modeled based on data dur- ing the development of the pandemic. To estimate the use of consumption of the protective equip- ment, number of doctors, healthcare workers, administrative personnel, patients, and surgeries were chosen as independent variables. Multivariate linear regression analysis was applied to examine the changes in the independent variables on protective consumables. It has been observed that dif- ferent variables are effective in estimating the consumption of each protective consumable. N95 mask, tie band surgical mask, and medical face mask consumptions were explained by the number of coronavirus disease patients and healthcare workers. Hand disinfectant and examination glove consumption were predicted with the number of doctor and coronavirus disease patients. Surgical glove prediction was estimated by using the number of surgeries. In this study, multivariate regres- sion models are proposed to help predict the consumption of protective consumables in hospitals.

Keywords

COVID-19, healthcare providers, medical supplies, multiple linear regression, predic- tion, protection items

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