Higher Education and Unemployment in Turkey: Regional Panel Analysis with Undergraduate, Master's, and PhD Perspectives

Year 2024, Volume: 38 Issue: 2, 128 - 136, 22.04.2024

Yahya Algül

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1473077

Abstract

In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced a noteworthy increase in the establishment of universities and enrollment of students across various degree programs. However, this surge in higher education has been accompanied by a growing number of unemployed higher education graduates. To address this phenomenon, this research conducts a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between different levels of tertiary education, undergraduate, master's, and Ph.D. (Doctorate) and unemployment. The study utilizes TurkStat's regional database, covering data from 26 provinces in Turkey spanning the years 2008 to 2021. Prior to delving into coefficient analysis, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test was applied to identify the direction of potential causality and to establish an accurate model. The findings suggest a potential causal relationship running from being a higher education graduate, at all levels (bachelor's, master's, and PhD ), to unemployment rate. Subsequently, to further scrutinize this relationship in light of causality findings, the Panel Augmented Mean Group estimator (AMG) was employed. The results indicate that a 1% increase in the total number of Bachelor's degree graduates is associated with a 1.16% increase in unemployment rate. Based on these findings, it can be argued that, instead of further investing in higher education, a policy approach targeting middle-skilled jobs through advanced investment in vocational high schools may be more cost-effective.

Keywords

Employment and Unemployment, Higher Education, Regional Economics, Turkey, Panel Causality, Panel Augmented Mean Group ( AMG )

Türkiye'de Yükseköğretim ve İşsizlik: Lisans, Yüksek Lisans ve Doktora Düzeyinde Bölgesel Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Türkiye’de 2000’li yıllardan itibaren açılmakta olan çok sayıdaki üniversiteyle birlikte yükseköğretimdeki öğrenci ve mezun sayılarında önemli bir artış yaşanmaktadır. Yükseköğrenimdeki bu yükselişin yanında, işsiz yükseköğretim mezunlarının sayısında da önemli bir artış gözlemlenmektedir. Bu olguyla ilgili olarak, bu araştırma yükseköğretimdeki lisans, yüksek lisans ve doktora gibi farklı mezuniyet düzeyleriyle, işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi kapsamlı bir şekilde analiz etmektedir. Çalışma, 2008-2021 yıllarını kapsayan TÜİK’in Düzey iki bölgesel veri tabanını kullanmakta ve Türkiye'nin 26 bölgesini içermektedir. Katsayı analizine geçmeden önce potansiyel ilişkinin nedensellik yönünü tespit etmek ve doğru bir model kurabilmek için Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır ve bulgular her düzeyde (lisans, yüksek lisans ve doktora) yükseköğretim mezunluğundan işsizlik oranına doğru bir potansiyel nedenselliğe işaret etmektedir. Sonrasında, nedensellik bulguları ışığında bu ilişkiyi daha derinlemesine incelemek için Panel Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup tahmincisi (AMG) kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, Lisans mezunlarının toplam sayısındaki %1'lik bir artışın işsizlik oranındaki %1,16'lık bir artışa neden olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Bu bulgular temel alındığında, yükseköğretime daha fazla yatırım yapmak yerine, meslek lisesi odaklı ara eleman ve teknik eleman eğitimine yönelen bir politikanın işsizlikle mücadele ve kaynakların verimli kullanımı bağlamında daha etkin olabileceği değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik ve istihdam, Yükseköğretim, Bölgesel İktisat, Türkiye, Panel Nedensellik, Panel Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup tahmincisi ( AMG )

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