Küreselleşme Genç İşsizliği Azaltmakta mıdır? Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı

Year 2024, Volume: 38 Issue: 3, 177 - 183, 15.07.2024

Süleyman Uğurlu

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1480078

Abstract

İşsizlik konusu ekonomi yazınında yıllardır tartışılan önemli bir konu olmakla birlikte, hükümetlerin ve firmaların dikkate aldığı temel göstergelerden biridir. Nitekim bir ülkede işsizliğin azaltılması ekonomik refahın artırılmasının yanı sıra, sosyal refahın da artırılmasına katkı sağlamaktadır. Küreselleşme sürecinde işsizlik rakamlarında meydana gelen dalgalanmalar, araştırmacıları bu konu üzerine odaklanmalarını sağlamıştır. Nitekim bu çalışma Türkiye özelinde küreselleşmenin genç işsizlik üzerindeki etkisini 1988-2021 dönemi için genişletilmiş ARDL yaklaşımı yardımıyla tespit etmeye çalışmaktadır. Küreselleşmeyi temsilen literatürde sıklıkla kullanılan KOF Küreselleşme Endeksi seçilmiştir. Çalışmanın kısıtları KOF endeksine ait güncel verinin 2021 yılına ait olması ve genç işsizlik verilenin ise 1988 yılından başlamasıdır. Küreselleşme ile genç işsizlik arasındaki ilişkinin Türkiye özelinde kısıtlı sayıda incelenmiş olması, bu çalışmanın hareket noktasını oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre Türkiye’de uzun dönemde küreselleşmedeki artış genç işsizliği azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların artması yine genç işsizliği azaltırken, kentleşmenin artması ise genç işsizliği artırmaktadır. Buna ek olarak kısa dönemde ise dengeden bir sapma olması durumunda, bu sapmaların yaklaşık %85’i bir dönem içerisinde telafi edilmekte ve uzun vadede tekrar dengeye ulaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

Küreselleşme, Genç İşsizlik, Genişletilmiş ARDL

Does Globalization Reduce Youth Unemployment? Augmented ARDL Approach

Abstract

While unemployment is a significant issue that has been extensively discussed in economic literature for decades, it is one of the key indicators that governments and firms consider. In fact, reducing unemployment in a country contributes to both increasing social welfare and economic welfare. Fluctuations in unemployment figures during the globalization process have led researchers to prioritize this issue. The objective of this study is to ascertain the impact of globalization on youth unemployment in Türkiye over the period 1988–2021, utilizing the augmented ARDL approach. The KOF Globalization Index, a frequently utilized indicator in the literature, is selected to represent globalization. However, the study is limited by the fact that the most recent data from the KOF index belongs to 2021, and the data on youth unemployment began in 1988. The limited number of studies on the relationship between globalization and youth unemployment in Türkiye constitutes the starting point of this study. The findings of the study indicate that an increase in globalization in the long run decreases youth unemployment in Türkiye. Furthermore, economic growth, inflation, and foreign direct investments also decrease youth unemployment, while an increase in urbanization increases youth unemployment. In addition, if a deviation occurs in the short run, approximately 85% of these deviations disappear in the first period and converge towards the long-run equilibrium.

Keywords

Globalization, Youth Unemployment, Augmented ARDL

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