Türkiye’de Doğal Afetler ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki

Year 2025, Volume: 39 Issue: 4, 441 - 452

Arzu Tural Dikmen , Hayati Aksu

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1581817

Abstract

Doğal afetler toplumların fiziksel, çevresel ve sosyal dinamiklerini önemli ölçüde etkileyerek can ve mal kayıplarına yol açmakta ve ekonomik faaliyetleri kesintiye uğratmaktadır. Ayrıca, hem fiziksel hem de beşeri sermayede kalıcı değişimlere neden olarak uzun vadeli ekonomik gerilemelere yol açabilmektedir. Doğal afetlerin boyutu, şiddeti ve ekonomik etkileri ülkelerin gelişmişlik seviyelerine bağlı olarak farklılık göstermektedir. Bu durum, doğal afetler ile gelişmişlik düzeyi arasında bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymakta ve bu ilişkinin açıklanabilmesi için ekonomik çalışmalara olan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır. Böyle çalışmalar, bu dinamiklerin daha iyi anlaşılmasına ve geleceğe yönelik planlamaların yapılmasına katkı sağlayabilir. Bu çalışma, 1960–2017 dönemi için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımını kullanarak Türkiye’de doğal afet kaynaklı zararlar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, doğal afetlerin hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, uzun vadeli analizler, sermaye stoku ve iş gücünün ekonomik büyümenin temel belirleyicileri arasında yer aldığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar afetlerin yalnızca fiziksel değil, aynı zamanda makroekonomik düzeyde de önemli olumsuz etkilere neden olduğunu göstermekte ve ekonomik büyümenin sürdürülebilirliği için hem sermaye birikiminin teşvik edilmesi hem de iş gücünün niteliksel olarak geliştirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Doğal afet , Ekonomik büyüme , Türkiye ekonomisi , ARDL sınır testi

The Relationship Between Natural Disasters and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Abstract

Natural disasters significantly affect the physical, environmental, and social dynamics of societies, leading to substantial loss of life and property while disrupting economic activity. Additionally, they can result in long-term economic setbacks by causing lasting changes to both physical and human capital. The scale, severity, and economic impacts of natural disasters vary depending on a country's level of development. This highlights the existence of a relationship between natural disasters and development levels, emphasizing the need for economic research to explain this relationship. Such studies can contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics and aid in future planning. This study aims to analyze the relationship between natural disaster-induced damages and economic growth in Türkiye during the period 1960–2017, utilizing the ARDL bounds testing approach. The findings reveal a negative and statistically significant relationship between natural disaster losses and economic growth in both the short and long run. Moreover, long-term analyses show that capital stock and labour force are key determinants of economic growth. These results show that disasters have significant negative effects not only at the physical level but also at the macroeconomic level, highlighting the need to promote capital accumulation and improve the quality of the labour force for the sustainability of economic growth.

Keywords

Natural disaster , Economic growth , Turkish economy , ARDL bounds test

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