Hydrographic study of Shatt Al-Arab estuary in the context of climate change

Year 2019, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 97 - 111, 17.12.2019

Ali Bassal Mahmood

Abstract

This paper presents key results (at the
first time) for the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian
Ocean Dipole Mode (DMI) and the Southern Pacific Ocean Oscillation (SOI) events
on the hydrographic and climatic parameters at the mid of Shatt Al-Arab estuary
(i.e. Basrah city centre) by using correlation analysis and standard ordinary
linear regression as an autoregressive process of order 1. The analysis
examined the discharge, salinity, sea surface water temperature and air
temperature over the period 2005-2014 (i.e. interannual, monthly and seasonal
datasets). The formal regressions have been estimated by using the first-degree
autoregressive AR (1) model, which includes calculations of the GLS-Generalized
Least Square Error Minimization regression method, for obtaining more stable
solutions in the context of climate change. The correlation is accounted for
using the standard ordinary bivariate linear regression method. The main
results indicate that the hydrographic and climatic variables in the study the region experienced general trends of decrease in discharge of 2.0936 (m³/sec),
increase in salinity of 0.0071 (‰), increase in air temperature of 0.0178 (⁰C)
and an increase in sea surface temperature of 0.0098 (⁰C). Significant correlations,
as well as prediction equations, were found between discharge and SOI, then,
salinity and sea surface temperature with NAO, and finally between air
temperature with NAO/DMI/SOI. The Pardé coefficients reflect the Karun
influence during spring in the context of climate change. 

Keywords

Shatt Al-Arab estuary; North Atlantic Oscillation; Dipole Mode; Southern Oscillation; Parametric methods

Supporting Institution

Marine Science Center, University of Basrah

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