Populist Radikal Sağ Partilerin Seçim Başarılarında Avrupalılaşma Sürecinin Etkisinin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi: 2000-2010 Orta ve Doğu Avrupa Seçimleri

Abstract

Orta ve Doğru Avrupa ülkelerindeki popülist radikal sağ partiler, ülkelerinin Avrupa Birliği'ne üyeliğine karşı şüpheci bir tutum içinde olmuşlardır. Avrupa Birliği'nin dördüncü genişleme sürecinin parçası olan Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinde 1990lı yıllarda radikal sağ partiler dikkat çekecek seçim başarısı elde edememişlerdir. Milenyumun ilk 10 yılında ise bu durum değişmiş ve popülist radikal sağ partiler çoğu ülkede önemli seçim başarısı kazanmışlardır. Bu çalışma, söz konusu dönem özelinde, küme-teorik yaklaşım üzerine geliştirilmiş muğlak-küme analizi yöntemini kullanarak, popülist radikal sağ partilerin hangi koşullar altında seçim başarısı elde ettiklerini tartışmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları üç cümlede özetlenebilir. Birincisi, ana akım sağ partilerin Avrupa Birliği üyeliğine destek vermeleri, popülist radikal sağ partilere yaramıştır. İkincisi, özellikle Romanların yoğun olarak yaşadıkları ülkelerde yolsuzluk probleminin varlığı ve ana akım partilerin siyasi yelpazenin merkezine yakın konumlanması populist radikal sağ partilerin seçim performanslarını olumlu etkilemiştir. Üçüncüsü, ikinci sonucun aksine, Romanların sayıca az olduğu ülkelerde, ana akım sağ partinin siyasi yelpazenin ucuna yakın konumlanması populist radikal sağ partilerin seçim başarısı elde etmelerine olanak sağlamıştır.

Keywords

• Radikal Sağ
• Avrupalılaşma
• Populizm
• Etnik milliyetçilik
• Seçim rekabeti

Revisiting the Conditions of the Populist Radical Right Electoral Success in CEE during Europeanization period: A Fuzzy-set Approach

Abstract

The Populist Radical Right parties (PRR) in Central and East European countries (CEECs) are skeptical about supporting the European Union membership. In the 1990s seldom did the PRR electoral success occur in CEECs that engaged into the fourth enlargement of the European Union during the first decade of the new millennium. Then, the PRR received more votes. Applying a new methodological approach based on fuzzy-set analysis, this study revisits under which context the PRR achieved electoral success in the period from 2000 to 2010. This study concludes: first, right wing mainstream parties’ positive stance on the issue of EU-membership benefitted the PRR in parliamentary elections held during the period 2000 to 2010. Second, the presence of a notable Roma population was context-setting condition: the policy divergence between right-wing mainstream party and the PRR, along with the unemployment problem (unlike the corruption problem) helped the latter, if a notable Roma population exists (e.g. Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia). In countries without a significant number of Roma populations (e.g. Poland and Slovenia), the PRR electoral success occurred when the right wing mainstream parties pursued socially illiberal policies despite its support for the EU membership.

Keywords

• Radical Right
• Europeanization
• Populism
• Ethnic-nationalism
• Electoral Competition

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