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Acımasız Zafer: EuroLeague'de 1 ve 2 Sayı ile Sonuçlanan Basketbol Maçlarında Kazanma ve Kaybetmeyi Etkileyen Oyunla İlgili Özelliklerin Belirlenmesi

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 2, 343 - 352, 31.08.2025

Abstract

Bir basketbol maçını kazanmak için oyunun son saniyesine kadar mücadele etmek gerekir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1 ve 2 sayı farkla sonuçlanan erkek basketbol maçlarında kazanmayı veya kaybetmeyi doğrudan etkileyen oyunla ilgili özellikleri belirlemektir. Veriler, 2001-2023 yılları arasında Avrupa Basketbol Ligi'nde (Euroleague) oynanan ve 22 yılı kapsayan 664 maçtan oluşmaktadır ve bu tür maçların en önemli özelliklerini bulmak için lojistik regresyon analizi ile test edilmiştir. 1 sayı fark ile biten maçlarda daha az basketbol karakteristik özelliğinin (top kaybından sayı p:0.001/β -0.114, fastbreak sayıları p:0.000/β -0.214, yapılan fauller p:0.002/β 0.081, alınan fauller p:0.007/β -0.068, benchten gelen sayılar p:0.014/β -0.054) etkili olduğu tespit edilirken, 2 sayı fark ile biten maçlarda daha fazla özellik (top kaybından sayı p:0. 000/β -0.205, 2 saha sayısı yüzdesi p:0.000/β -0.081, 3 saha sayısı yüzdesi p:0.000/β -0.049, hücum ribauntları p:0.017/β -0.070, savunma ribauntları p:0. 000/β -0.135, top çalma p:0.002/β -0.082, top kaybı p:0.000/β -0.107, fastbreak sayıları p:0.000/β 0.193, asist p:0.024/β 0.075) öne çıkmıştır. Bir sayı farkla kazanılan maçlarda, ev sahibi takımlar için daha fazla fastbreak sayısı ve yapılan/alınan fauller maçın kazanılmasında en önemli etkiye sahipken, deplasman takımları için 3 sayılık atış sayısı, top kaybından elde edilen sayılar, benchten gelen oyuncuların aldığı sayılar ve fastbreak sayıları maçın kazanılmasında en önemli etkiye sahip olmuştur. Ayrıca 2 sayı farkla kazanılan maçlarda, daha fazla 2 sayılık atışlar, hücum/defans ribauntları ve top çalma özelliklerinin etkili olduğu bulunmuştur.

References

  • 1. García-Manso JM. Martín-González JM. Guerra YS. Valverde T. Jiménez SL. Last minute in NBA games. Revista de Psicología del Deporte. 2015; 24(1):31-35.
  • 2. Bar-Eli M. Psychological performance crisis in competition. 1984-1996: A review. Eur Yearbook Sport Psych.1997; 1:73-112.
  • 3. Bar-Eli M. Tractinsky N. Criticality of game situations and decision making in basketball: An application of performance crisis perspective. Psych Sport Ex.2000; 1:27-39.
  • 4. Solomonov Y. Avugos S. Bar-Eli M. Do clutch players win the game? Testing the validity of the clutch player’s reputation in basketball. Psych Sport Ex. 2015; 16:130-138.
  • 5. Baumeister RF. Choking under pressure: self-consciousness and paradoxical effects of incentives on skilful performance. J Personality Social Psych. 1984; 46: 610-620.
  • 6. Beilock SL. Gray R. Why do athletes "choke" under pressure? In G Tenenbaum. RC Eklund (Eds.). Handbook of sport psychology (3rd ed..425-444). Hoboken. NJ: Wiley; 2007.
  • 7. Conte D. Favero TG. Lupo C. Francioni FM. Capranica L. Tessitore A. Time-motion analysis of Italian elite women’s basketball games: Individual and team analyses. J Strength Cond Res. 2015; 29(1):144-150.
  • 8. Conte D. Tessitore A. Gjullin A. Mackinnon D. Lupo C. Favero T. Investigating the game-related statistics and tactical profile in NCAA division I men’s basketball games. Biology of Sport. 2018; 35(2):137-143.
  • 9. Şentuna M. Şentuna N. Özdemir N. Serter K. Özen G. The investigation of the effects of some variables in the Playoff games played in Turkey women’s basketball super league between 2013-2017 on winning and Losing. Physical education of students. 2018; 22(3):146-150.
  • 10. Çene E. What is the difference between a winning and a losing team: insights from Euroleague Basketball. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2018;18(1):55-68.
  • 11. Lorenzo A. Gómez MA. Ortega E. Ibáñez SJ. Sampaio J. Game related statistics which discriminate between winning and losing under-16 male basketball games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine. 2010;9:664-668.
  • 12. Gomez MA. Gasperi L. Lupo C. Performance analysis of game dynamics during the 4th game quarter of NBA close games. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2016;16.249-263.
  • 13. Hughes M. Franks IM. Notational Analysis of Sport. Systems for better coaching and performance in sport. J Sports Sci Med. 2004;3(2):104.
  • 14. Leite N. Baker J. Sampaio J. Paths to expertise in Portuguese national team athletes. J Sports Sci Med. 2009;8(4):560-566.
  • 15. Ortega E. Villarejo D. Palao JM. Differences in game statistics between winning and losing rugby teams in the six nations tournament. J Sports Sci Med. 2009;8(4):523-527.
  • 16. Gómez MA. Avugos S. Oñoro MA. Lorenzo A. Bar-Eli M. Shaq is Not Alone: Free-Throws in the Final Moments of a Basketball Game. Journal of Human Kinetics. 2018; 62(1):135-144.
  • 17. Leicht AS. Gomez MA. Woods CT. Explaining match outcome during the men’s basketball tournament at the olympic games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine. 2017; 16.468-473.
  • 18. Milanovic D. Stefan L. Sporis G. Vuleta D. Selmanovic A. Effects of situational efficiency indicators on final outcome among male basketball teams on the Olympic games in London 2012. Acta Kinesiologica. 2016; 10(1).78-84.
  • 19. Garcia J. Ibanez SJ. Gomez MA. Sampaio J. Basketball Game-related statistics discriminating ACB league teams according to game location. game outcome and final score differences. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2014; 14(2). 443-452.
  • 20. Ibanez S. Sampaio J. Feu S. Lorenzo A. Gomez M. Ortega E. Basketball game-related statistics that discriminate between teams’ season-long success. European Journal of Sport Science. 2008; 8(6).369-372.
  • 21. Courel-Ibanez J. McRobert AP. Toro EO. Velez DC. Inside pass predicts ball possession effectiveness in NBA basketball. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2016; 16(2).711-725.
  • 22. Sperandei S. Understanding logistic regression analysis. Biochemia Medica. 2014; 24(1):12-8.
  • 23. Hosmer DW. Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley and Sons. 2000. New York. USA.
  • 24. Kılıç S. Binary Logistic Regression Analysis. Journal of Mood Disorders. 2015;5(4). 191-194.
  • 25. Worthy DA, Markman AB, Maddox WT. Choking and excelling at the free-throw line. International Journal Creativity Problem Solving, 2009; 19: 53-58.
  • 26. Gómez MA, Lorenzo A. Sampaio J. Ibáñez SJ. Ortega E. Game-related statistics that discriminated winning and losing teams from the Spanish men's professional basketball teams. Coll Antropol, 2008; Jun; 32(2): 451-6.
  • 27. Ribas RL Navarro R. Tavares F. and Gómez MA. Analysis of Number of Players Involved in Rebound Situations in Euroleague Basketball Games. The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 2011, (4), 10-13.
  • 28. García J. Ibáñez SJ. Santos RM. Leite N. Sampaio J. Identifying Basketball Performance Indicators in Regular Season and Playoff Games. Journal of Human Kinetics. 2013, 36, 161-168.
  • 29. Hill DM. Hanton S. Fleming S. & Matthews N. A re-examination of choking in sport. European Journal of Sport Science, 2009, 9, 203-212.
  • 30. Mandić R. Jakovljević S. Erčulj F. and StrumbeljI E. Trends in NBA and Euroleague basketball: Analysis and comparison of statistical data from 2000 to 2017. Plos One 2019;14(10).
  • 31. Gómez MA. Silva R. Lorenzo A. Kreivyte R. & Sampaio J. Exploring the effects of substituting Basketball players in high-level teams. Journal of Sports Sciences. 2017, 35(3), 247-254.
  • 32. Zhang S. Modelling and Simulation in Game Performances of Basketball Players and Teams in the National Basketball Association. 2019. Doctoral Thesis. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, INEF. Spain.
  • 33. Sampaio J. Drinkwater E. and Leite N. Effects of season period, team quality, and playing time on basketball players' game-related statistics. European Journal of Sport Science. 2010, 10(2), 141-149.
  • 34. Kubatko J. Oliver D. Pelton K. and Rosenbaum DT. A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. 2007, 3(3), 1-22.

Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 2, 343 - 352, 31.08.2025

Abstract

To win a basketball game, it is necessary to fight until the last second of the game. This study aimed to determine the game-related characteristics that directly affect winning or losing in men’s basketball games decided by 1 and 2 points. The data consisted of 664 games played in the European Basketball League (Euroleague) between 2001 and 2023, covering 22 years and were tested with logistic regression analysis to find the most significant characteristics of such games. In the games decided by 1 point, fewer characteristics (points off turnover p:0.001/β -0.114, fastbreak points p:0.000/β -0.214, fouls committed p:0.002/β 0.081, fouls received p:0.007/β -0.068, points by bench p:0.014/β -0.054) were identified, while in those decided by 2 points, more characteristics (points off turnovers p:0.000/β -0.205, 2 field points percents p:0.000/β -0.081, 3 field points percents p:0.000/β -0.049, rebounds offensive p:0.017/β -0.070, rebounds defensive p:0.000/β -0.135, steals p:0.002/β -0.082, turnovers p:0.000/β -0.107, fastbreak points p:0.000/β 0.193, assists p:0.024/β 0.075) were prominent. In the games won by 1 point, more fastbreak points and fouls committed/received for home teams had the most significant impact on winning the game, while the visitors teams 3 Field points, points off turnover, points by bench and fastbreak points had the most significant impact on winning the game. Also in the games won by 2 point, more 2 field points, rebounds offensive/defensive, steals, turnovers, fastbreak points and points off turnovers for home teams had the most significant impact on winning the game, while the visitors teams 2 field points, 3 field points, rebounds defensive, assists, turnovers, fastbreak points and points off turnover had the most significant impact on winning the game. This study has helped us understand how basketball teams win games in the EuroLeague. It was observed that in closely contested games with small margins, the required game-related characteristics varied significantly for all winning teams. While there were fewer distinguishing parameters in games decided by a 1-point difference, the number of parameters increased in games decided by a 2-point difference.

References

  • 1. García-Manso JM. Martín-González JM. Guerra YS. Valverde T. Jiménez SL. Last minute in NBA games. Revista de Psicología del Deporte. 2015; 24(1):31-35.
  • 2. Bar-Eli M. Psychological performance crisis in competition. 1984-1996: A review. Eur Yearbook Sport Psych.1997; 1:73-112.
  • 3. Bar-Eli M. Tractinsky N. Criticality of game situations and decision making in basketball: An application of performance crisis perspective. Psych Sport Ex.2000; 1:27-39.
  • 4. Solomonov Y. Avugos S. Bar-Eli M. Do clutch players win the game? Testing the validity of the clutch player’s reputation in basketball. Psych Sport Ex. 2015; 16:130-138.
  • 5. Baumeister RF. Choking under pressure: self-consciousness and paradoxical effects of incentives on skilful performance. J Personality Social Psych. 1984; 46: 610-620.
  • 6. Beilock SL. Gray R. Why do athletes "choke" under pressure? In G Tenenbaum. RC Eklund (Eds.). Handbook of sport psychology (3rd ed..425-444). Hoboken. NJ: Wiley; 2007.
  • 7. Conte D. Favero TG. Lupo C. Francioni FM. Capranica L. Tessitore A. Time-motion analysis of Italian elite women’s basketball games: Individual and team analyses. J Strength Cond Res. 2015; 29(1):144-150.
  • 8. Conte D. Tessitore A. Gjullin A. Mackinnon D. Lupo C. Favero T. Investigating the game-related statistics and tactical profile in NCAA division I men’s basketball games. Biology of Sport. 2018; 35(2):137-143.
  • 9. Şentuna M. Şentuna N. Özdemir N. Serter K. Özen G. The investigation of the effects of some variables in the Playoff games played in Turkey women’s basketball super league between 2013-2017 on winning and Losing. Physical education of students. 2018; 22(3):146-150.
  • 10. Çene E. What is the difference between a winning and a losing team: insights from Euroleague Basketball. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2018;18(1):55-68.
  • 11. Lorenzo A. Gómez MA. Ortega E. Ibáñez SJ. Sampaio J. Game related statistics which discriminate between winning and losing under-16 male basketball games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine. 2010;9:664-668.
  • 12. Gomez MA. Gasperi L. Lupo C. Performance analysis of game dynamics during the 4th game quarter of NBA close games. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2016;16.249-263.
  • 13. Hughes M. Franks IM. Notational Analysis of Sport. Systems for better coaching and performance in sport. J Sports Sci Med. 2004;3(2):104.
  • 14. Leite N. Baker J. Sampaio J. Paths to expertise in Portuguese national team athletes. J Sports Sci Med. 2009;8(4):560-566.
  • 15. Ortega E. Villarejo D. Palao JM. Differences in game statistics between winning and losing rugby teams in the six nations tournament. J Sports Sci Med. 2009;8(4):523-527.
  • 16. Gómez MA. Avugos S. Oñoro MA. Lorenzo A. Bar-Eli M. Shaq is Not Alone: Free-Throws in the Final Moments of a Basketball Game. Journal of Human Kinetics. 2018; 62(1):135-144.
  • 17. Leicht AS. Gomez MA. Woods CT. Explaining match outcome during the men’s basketball tournament at the olympic games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine. 2017; 16.468-473.
  • 18. Milanovic D. Stefan L. Sporis G. Vuleta D. Selmanovic A. Effects of situational efficiency indicators on final outcome among male basketball teams on the Olympic games in London 2012. Acta Kinesiologica. 2016; 10(1).78-84.
  • 19. Garcia J. Ibanez SJ. Gomez MA. Sampaio J. Basketball Game-related statistics discriminating ACB league teams according to game location. game outcome and final score differences. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2014; 14(2). 443-452.
  • 20. Ibanez S. Sampaio J. Feu S. Lorenzo A. Gomez M. Ortega E. Basketball game-related statistics that discriminate between teams’ season-long success. European Journal of Sport Science. 2008; 8(6).369-372.
  • 21. Courel-Ibanez J. McRobert AP. Toro EO. Velez DC. Inside pass predicts ball possession effectiveness in NBA basketball. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. 2016; 16(2).711-725.
  • 22. Sperandei S. Understanding logistic regression analysis. Biochemia Medica. 2014; 24(1):12-8.
  • 23. Hosmer DW. Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley and Sons. 2000. New York. USA.
  • 24. Kılıç S. Binary Logistic Regression Analysis. Journal of Mood Disorders. 2015;5(4). 191-194.
  • 25. Worthy DA, Markman AB, Maddox WT. Choking and excelling at the free-throw line. International Journal Creativity Problem Solving, 2009; 19: 53-58.
  • 26. Gómez MA, Lorenzo A. Sampaio J. Ibáñez SJ. Ortega E. Game-related statistics that discriminated winning and losing teams from the Spanish men's professional basketball teams. Coll Antropol, 2008; Jun; 32(2): 451-6.
  • 27. Ribas RL Navarro R. Tavares F. and Gómez MA. Analysis of Number of Players Involved in Rebound Situations in Euroleague Basketball Games. The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 2011, (4), 10-13.
  • 28. García J. Ibáñez SJ. Santos RM. Leite N. Sampaio J. Identifying Basketball Performance Indicators in Regular Season and Playoff Games. Journal of Human Kinetics. 2013, 36, 161-168.
  • 29. Hill DM. Hanton S. Fleming S. & Matthews N. A re-examination of choking in sport. European Journal of Sport Science, 2009, 9, 203-212.
  • 30. Mandić R. Jakovljević S. Erčulj F. and StrumbeljI E. Trends in NBA and Euroleague basketball: Analysis and comparison of statistical data from 2000 to 2017. Plos One 2019;14(10).
  • 31. Gómez MA. Silva R. Lorenzo A. Kreivyte R. & Sampaio J. Exploring the effects of substituting Basketball players in high-level teams. Journal of Sports Sciences. 2017, 35(3), 247-254.
  • 32. Zhang S. Modelling and Simulation in Game Performances of Basketball Players and Teams in the National Basketball Association. 2019. Doctoral Thesis. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, INEF. Spain.
  • 33. Sampaio J. Drinkwater E. and Leite N. Effects of season period, team quality, and playing time on basketball players' game-related statistics. European Journal of Sport Science. 2010, 10(2), 141-149.
  • 34. Kubatko J. Oliver D. Pelton K. and Rosenbaum DT. A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. 2007, 3(3), 1-22.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Sports Training
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Murat Şentuna 0000-0001-7728-7933

Nurgül Özdemir 0000-0002-6124-6982

Güçlü Özen 0000-0003-0360-5358

Publication Date August 31, 2025
Submission Date September 23, 2024
Acceptance Date August 28, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 27 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Şentuna, M., Özdemir, N., & Özen, G. (2025). Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points. Turkish Journal of Sport and Exercise, 27(2), 343-352. https://doi.org/10.15314/tsed.1554730
AMA Şentuna M, Özdemir N, Özen G. Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points. Turk J Sport Exe. August 2025;27(2):343-352. doi:10.15314/tsed.1554730
Chicago Şentuna, Murat, Nurgül Özdemir, and Güçlü Özen. “Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points”. Turkish Journal of Sport and Exercise 27, no. 2 (August 2025): 343-52. https://doi.org/10.15314/tsed.1554730.
EndNote Şentuna M, Özdemir N, Özen G (August 1, 2025) Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points. Turkish Journal of Sport and Exercise 27 2 343–352.
IEEE M. Şentuna, N. Özdemir, and G. Özen, “Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points”, Turk J Sport Exe, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 343–352, 2025, doi: 10.15314/tsed.1554730.
ISNAD Şentuna, Murat et al. “Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points”. Turkish Journal of Sport and Exercise 27/2 (August2025), 343-352. https://doi.org/10.15314/tsed.1554730.
JAMA Şentuna M, Özdemir N, Özen G. Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points. Turk J Sport Exe. 2025;27:343–352.
MLA Şentuna, Murat et al. “Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points”. Turkish Journal of Sport and Exercise, vol. 27, no. 2, 2025, pp. 343-52, doi:10.15314/tsed.1554730.
Vancouver Şentuna M, Özdemir N, Özen G. Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points. Turk J Sport Exe. 2025;27(2):343-52.

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