TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACAT VE İTHALAT DEĞERLERİNİN ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ VE TAHMİNİ

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 33 - 43, 29.06.2025

Elvan Deniz

Abstract

Küreselleşmenin artan etkisiyle birlikte, dış ticaret özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ekonomik büyüme, teknolojik gelişim ve dışa bağımlılığın azaltılması açısından stratejik bir araç haline gelmiştir. Bu bağlamda, gelişmekte olan ülkeler için dış ticaret hacminin artırılması çeşitli fırsatlar sunmaktadır. Bu nedenle, 2013–2024 yılları arasındaki resmi yıllık dış ticaret verilerini kullanarak Türkiye’nin dış ticaretine yönelik öngörüler sunmak amacıyla ihracat ve ithalata dair zaman serisi tabanlı bir tahmin modeli tarafımızca geliştirilmiştir. Bu kapsamda altı farklı istatistiksel analiz metodu, Minitab 17 yazılımı kullanılarak uygulanmıştır. Hata oranları Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinde gözlemlenen yapısal eğilimlerin anlaşılmasına katkı sağlamakta ve yatırımcılara gelecek yıllara yönelik öngörüler sunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomik karar alma süreçlerinde zaman serisi analizlerinin önemine vurgu yapmak ve makroekonomik planlama süreçlerine bilimsel katkı sağlamaktır.

Keywords

İhracat , İthalat , Zaman Serisi Analizi , Dış Ticaret Tahmini

Ethical Statement

Çıkar Çatışması: Yazarlar, açıklanması gereken herhangi bir çıkar çatışması bulunmadığını beyan etmektedir.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF TURKEY’S EXPORT AND IMPORT VALUES

Abstract

With the increasing impact of globalization, foreign trade has become a strategic tool, particularly for developing countries, in fostering economic growth, encouraging technological advancement, and reducing external dependency. In this context, expanding the volume of foreign trade offers various opportunities for developing economies. Accordingly, a time series-based forecasting model was developed to generate projections for Turkey’s foreign trade, focusing on export and import values, using official annual trade data from 2013 to 2024. Within the scope of this study, six different statistical analysis methods were applied using Minitab 17 software. The error rates and resulting findings contribute to understanding the structural trends observed in Turkey’s foreign trade and provide forward-looking insights for investors. Therefore, the primary aim of this study is to emphasize the importance of time series analysis in economic decision-making processes and to offer a scientific contribution to macroeconomic planning strategies.

Keywords

Export , Import , Time Series Analysis , Foreign Trade Forecasting

Ethical Statement

Conflict of Interest: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest to disclose.

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