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TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL ERİŞİM VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2017, Volume: 8 Issue: 44, 139 - 167, 25.08.2022

Bekir Kaya

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2010Q1-2018Q1 dönemine ilişkin üçer aylık verileri kullanarak, Türkiye’de finansal erişim ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkilerinin incelenmesidir. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin incelenmesi amacıyla ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Sınır testi sonuçları, Türkiye’de finansal erişim ile ekonomik büyüme arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına dair bulgular sağlamıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığının belirlenmesinin ardından, değişkenler arasındaki nedensel ilişkileri incelemek üzere VECM Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. VECM Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, finansal erişimden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, arz takipli hipotezi destekler niteliktedir

Keywords

Finansal Erişim Ekonomik Büyüme Eşbütünleşme Analizi Granger Nedensellik Testi

References

  • Alter, A. ve Yontcheva, B. 2015 . Financial Inclusion and Development in the CEMAC. IMF Working Paper, WP/15/235.
  • Andrianaivo, M. ve Kpodar, K. 2011 . ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth: Evidence from African Countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/73.
  • Breusch, T.S. 1978 . Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models. Australian Economic Papers, Volume: 17, s.334-355. Doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
  • Breusch, T.S. ve Pagan A.R. 1979 . A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica, Volume: 47, s.1287- 1294. Doi:10.2307/1911963
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin J. ve Evans J.M. 1975 . Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B Methodological , Volume: 37, s.149-192.
  • Chikalipah, S. 2016 . What Determines Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa?. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Vol. 8 Issue:1, pp. 8-18, doi: 10.1108/AJEMS-01-2016-0007.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller W.A. 1979 . Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 74, s.427-431. Doi: 10.2307/2286348
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller W.A. 1981 . Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, Volume: 49, s.1057-1072. doi: 10.2307/1912517
  • Engle R.F. ve Granger C.W.J. 1987 . Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, Volume: 55, s.251–276.
  • Evans O. ve Adeoye B. 2016 . Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. University of Mauritius Research Journal, Volume: 22.
  • Fungacova, Z. ve Weill, L. 2015 . Understanding Financial Inclusion in China. China Economic Review, 34, 196-206.
  • Godfrey, L.G. 1978a . Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica, Volume: 46, s.1293-1301. Doi: 10.2307/1913829
  • Godfrey, L.G. 1978b . Testing for Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, Volume: 8, s.227-236. Doi: 10.1016/0304- 4076 78 90031-3
  • Granger, C.W.J. 1988 . Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality. Journal of Econometrics, Volume: 39, s. 199-211. Doi: 10.1016/0304-4076 88 90045-0
  • Jarque, C.M. ve Bera A.K. 1980 . Efficient Tests for Normality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals. Economics Letters, Volume: 6, s.255-259. Doi: 10.1016/0165- 1765 80 90024-5
  • Kaya B. ve Öner-Kaya E. 2017 . “Terrorism and Economic Growth: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Turkey”, Current Perspectives in Social Sciences, Editör: H. Arslan, M. A. Icbay, Alina-Andreea Dragoescu, ISBN:978-83-943963-7-4, E-BWN: Bialystok, Poland.
  • Kim, D. W., Yu, J. S. ve Hassan, M. K. 2018 . Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in OIC Countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 1-14.
  • Michael, O. B. ve Sharon, O. O. 2014 . Financial System, Financial Inclusion and Economic Development in Nigeria. International Journal of Management Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 3, 139-148.
  • Narayan, S. ve Narayan P.K. 2004 . Determinants of Demand for Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation. The Developing Economies, Volume: 42, s.95–112. Doi:10.1111/j.1746-1049.2004.tb01017.x
  • Narayan, P.K. 2005 . The Saving and Investment nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Applied Economics, Volume: 37, s.1979-1990. Doi:10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Okoye, L. U., Adetiloye, K., Erin, O. ve Modebe, N. J. 2017 . Financial Inclusion as a Strategy for Enhanced Economic Growth and Development. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, Vol. 22, No. S8, 1-14.
  • Ozili, P. K. 2018 . Impact of Digital Finance an Financial Inclusion and Stability. Borsa İstanbul Review, 1-12.
  • Öner-Kaya, E. ve Kaya B. 2017 . “Türkiye’de Sigorta ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Uluslararası Ekonomi Araştırmaları ve Finansal Piyasalar Kongresi Bildiri Kitabı, Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin Y. 1999 . Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Ed. S. Strom, Chap. 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin Y. ve Smith R.J. 2001 . Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume: 16, s.289–326. Doi: 10.1002/jae.616
  • Ramsey, J.B. 1969 . Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least- Squares Regression Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B Methodological , Volume: 31, s.350–371.
  • Saab, G. 2017 . Financial Inclusion and Growth. The Business and Management Review, Vol. 8, No. 4, 434-441.
  • Sarma, M. ve Pais J. 2011 . Financial Inclusion and Development. Journal of International Development, 23, 612-628, doi: 10.1002/jid.1698.
  • Sharma, D. 2016 . Nexus Between Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth Evidence from the Emerging Indian Economy. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 8, No. 1, 13-36.
  • Soumaré, I., Tchana, F. T. ve Kengne T. M. 2016 . Analysis of the Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Central and West Africa. Transnational Corporations Review, 8:4, 231-249, doi: 10.1080/19186444.2016.1265763.
  • Terzi, N. 2015 . Financial Inclusion and Turkey. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy, Vol. 4, No. 1 S2, 269-276.
  • Yorulmaz, R. 2013 . Construction of a Regional Financial Inclusion Index in Turkey. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, Cilt. 7, Sayı. 1, 79-101.
  • http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialinclusion/overview#1, 25.06.2018.
  • https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/#GF-ReportChapters, 25.06.2018
  • https://www.tbb.org.tr/tr/bankacilik/banka-ve-sektor- bilgileri/istatistiki-raporlar/59, 09.07.2018.
  • https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/, 25.06.2018.

Year 2017, Volume: 8 Issue: 44, 139 - 167, 25.08.2022

Bekir Kaya

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the cointegration and causality relationships between financial inclusion and economic growth in Turkey using quarterly data for the period 2010Q1-2018Q1. In this study, Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL bounds testing approach is employed to test theexistence of cointegration relationship between the variables.The results of the bounds test show thatthere is a cointegration relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in Turkey. After determining the presence of the cointegration relationship, VECM Granger causality test is used to examine the causal relationships between variables. According to the results of the VECM Granger causality test, oneway causality relationship from financial inclusion to economic growth was determined. The findings of the study support the supply-leading hypothesis

Keywords

Financial Inclusion Economic Growth Cointegration Analysis Granger Causality Test

References

  • Alter, A. ve Yontcheva, B. 2015 . Financial Inclusion and Development in the CEMAC. IMF Working Paper, WP/15/235.
  • Andrianaivo, M. ve Kpodar, K. 2011 . ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth: Evidence from African Countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/73.
  • Breusch, T.S. 1978 . Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models. Australian Economic Papers, Volume: 17, s.334-355. Doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
  • Breusch, T.S. ve Pagan A.R. 1979 . A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica, Volume: 47, s.1287- 1294. Doi:10.2307/1911963
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin J. ve Evans J.M. 1975 . Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B Methodological , Volume: 37, s.149-192.
  • Chikalipah, S. 2016 . What Determines Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa?. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Vol. 8 Issue:1, pp. 8-18, doi: 10.1108/AJEMS-01-2016-0007.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller W.A. 1979 . Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 74, s.427-431. Doi: 10.2307/2286348
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller W.A. 1981 . Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, Volume: 49, s.1057-1072. doi: 10.2307/1912517
  • Engle R.F. ve Granger C.W.J. 1987 . Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, Volume: 55, s.251–276.
  • Evans O. ve Adeoye B. 2016 . Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. University of Mauritius Research Journal, Volume: 22.
  • Fungacova, Z. ve Weill, L. 2015 . Understanding Financial Inclusion in China. China Economic Review, 34, 196-206.
  • Godfrey, L.G. 1978a . Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica, Volume: 46, s.1293-1301. Doi: 10.2307/1913829
  • Godfrey, L.G. 1978b . Testing for Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, Volume: 8, s.227-236. Doi: 10.1016/0304- 4076 78 90031-3
  • Granger, C.W.J. 1988 . Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality. Journal of Econometrics, Volume: 39, s. 199-211. Doi: 10.1016/0304-4076 88 90045-0
  • Jarque, C.M. ve Bera A.K. 1980 . Efficient Tests for Normality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals. Economics Letters, Volume: 6, s.255-259. Doi: 10.1016/0165- 1765 80 90024-5
  • Kaya B. ve Öner-Kaya E. 2017 . “Terrorism and Economic Growth: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Turkey”, Current Perspectives in Social Sciences, Editör: H. Arslan, M. A. Icbay, Alina-Andreea Dragoescu, ISBN:978-83-943963-7-4, E-BWN: Bialystok, Poland.
  • Kim, D. W., Yu, J. S. ve Hassan, M. K. 2018 . Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in OIC Countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 1-14.
  • Michael, O. B. ve Sharon, O. O. 2014 . Financial System, Financial Inclusion and Economic Development in Nigeria. International Journal of Management Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 3, 139-148.
  • Narayan, S. ve Narayan P.K. 2004 . Determinants of Demand for Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation. The Developing Economies, Volume: 42, s.95–112. Doi:10.1111/j.1746-1049.2004.tb01017.x
  • Narayan, P.K. 2005 . The Saving and Investment nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Applied Economics, Volume: 37, s.1979-1990. Doi:10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Okoye, L. U., Adetiloye, K., Erin, O. ve Modebe, N. J. 2017 . Financial Inclusion as a Strategy for Enhanced Economic Growth and Development. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, Vol. 22, No. S8, 1-14.
  • Ozili, P. K. 2018 . Impact of Digital Finance an Financial Inclusion and Stability. Borsa İstanbul Review, 1-12.
  • Öner-Kaya, E. ve Kaya B. 2017 . “Türkiye’de Sigorta ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Uluslararası Ekonomi Araştırmaları ve Finansal Piyasalar Kongresi Bildiri Kitabı, Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin Y. 1999 . Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Ed. S. Strom, Chap. 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin Y. ve Smith R.J. 2001 . Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume: 16, s.289–326. Doi: 10.1002/jae.616
  • Ramsey, J.B. 1969 . Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least- Squares Regression Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B Methodological , Volume: 31, s.350–371.
  • Saab, G. 2017 . Financial Inclusion and Growth. The Business and Management Review, Vol. 8, No. 4, 434-441.
  • Sarma, M. ve Pais J. 2011 . Financial Inclusion and Development. Journal of International Development, 23, 612-628, doi: 10.1002/jid.1698.
  • Sharma, D. 2016 . Nexus Between Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth Evidence from the Emerging Indian Economy. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 8, No. 1, 13-36.
  • Soumaré, I., Tchana, F. T. ve Kengne T. M. 2016 . Analysis of the Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Central and West Africa. Transnational Corporations Review, 8:4, 231-249, doi: 10.1080/19186444.2016.1265763.
  • Terzi, N. 2015 . Financial Inclusion and Turkey. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy, Vol. 4, No. 1 S2, 269-276.
  • Yorulmaz, R. 2013 . Construction of a Regional Financial Inclusion Index in Turkey. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, Cilt. 7, Sayı. 1, 79-101.
  • http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialinclusion/overview#1, 25.06.2018.
  • https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/#GF-ReportChapters, 25.06.2018
  • https://www.tbb.org.tr/tr/bankacilik/banka-ve-sektor- bilgileri/istatistiki-raporlar/59, 09.07.2018.
  • https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/, 25.06.2018.
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Bekir Kaya This is me

Publication Date August 25, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 8 Issue: 44

Cite

APA Kaya, B. (2022). TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL ERİŞİM VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Düşünce Dünyasında Türkiz, 8(44), 139-167.