Anomalies In Producer Prices Of Crop Products In Türkiye

Year 2023, , 820 - 829, 13.10.2023

Fethi Şaban Özbek

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1279838

Abstract

Hâlihazırda, Türkiye'de ve diğer ülkelerde gıda tüketici fiyat anomalilerine yönelik çalışmalar yapılmaktadır. Ancak, bitkisel ürünlerin üretici fiyat anomalilerine yönelik çalışmalar sınırlıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de son on yılda (2013-2022) seçilen bitkisel ürünler için üretici fiyat anormalliklerini, mevsimsellik ve enflasyonun fiyatlar üzerindeki etkilerini dikkate alarak fiyatların izlenmesine olanak sağlayan aylık fiyat seviyesinin üç aylık ve yıllık Bileşik Büyüme Oranlarını (CGR) kullanarak belirlemektir. Bu yöntem, fiyatların erken uyarı göstergesi olarak kullanılması için ideal bir yoldur. Sonuçlara göre, on yıllık dönemde 2015 yılı hariç tüm yıllarda orta düzeyde veya anormal yüksek fiyatlar gözlemlendi. Bu dönemde, ayçiçeği, şekerpancarı, patates ve Antep fıstığı ürünleri için anormal yüksek fiyatlar birden fazla yılda görüldü. Anormal yüksek fiyatlar en fazla 2014 ve 2021 yıllarında görülürken, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 ve 2022 yıllarında anormal yüksek fiyat gözlemlenmedi. Üretici fiyatları orta veya anormal yüksek olan bitkisel ürünlerin son üç yıllık durumları incelendiğinde, 2020 yılında buğday ve mısır orta düzeyde yüksek üretici fiyatlarına sahip ürünler olurken, ayçiçeği ve şeker pancarı fiyatları anormal yüksek olan ürünler oldu. 2021 yılında ise sadece buğday üretici fiyatı orta derecede yüksekken, pamuk, mısır ve arpa fiyatları anormal yüksek olarak gerçekleşti. 2022 yılında anormal yüksek fiyatlar gözlemlenmezken, buğday, pamuk, domates, mısır ve patates fiyatları orta derecede yüksek olarak gerçekleşti.

Keywords

Bitkisel ürünler, fiyat anomalileri, fiyat izleme, üretici fiyatlar

Türkiye’de Bitkisel Ürünlerin Üretici Fiyatı Anomalileri

Abstract

Currently, some studies on food consumer price anomalies are being conducted in Turkey and other countries. However, the research on crop products producer price anomalies is limited. The purpose of this paper is to identify producer price anomalies for selected crop products in Turkey over the last ten years (2013-2022) using quarterly and annual Compound Growth Rates (CGR) of the monthly price level, which allows for price monitoring after accounting for the effects of seasonality and inflation on prices, making it an ideal way to use prices as the basis of an early warning indicator. According to the results, moderately or abnormally high prices were measured in all years except for 2015. Sunflower, sugar beet, potatoes and pistachio were the crop products abnormally high prices were measured more than one year in this period. Abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2014 and 2021 at most. And, no abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022. When the last three year situations of crop products with moderately or abnormally high producer prices were examined, wheat and maize were the crops with moderately high prices, and sunflower and sugar beet were the crops with abnormally high prices in 2020. In 2021, only the price of wheat was moderately high; cotton, maize, and barley were the crops with abnormally high prices. No abnormally high prices were measured in 2022, and the prices of wheat, cotton, tomatoes, maize, and potatoes were moderately high.

Keywords

Crop products, producer prices, price anomalies, price monitoring

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