The Long-Term Volatility Spillovers Between Egg and Feed Wheat Prices During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 741 - 753, 23.07.2022

Nihat Küçük Faruk Urak Gürkan Bozma Abdulbaki Bilgic

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1128935

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Having spread all over the world and become effective in a very short period, COVID-19 has brought about negative effects on food supply and demand by breaking all supply chains. This study aims to determine the long-term volatility spillovers between egg and feed wheat markets in Turkey by using an exchange rate and COVID-19 as exogenous variables as well as to investigate whether these spillovers are asymmetric. The daily market data between 2010:01 and 2022:03 and the Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model were used for the study . We determined that the conditional variances of egg and feed wheat return series are positively affected by both their shocks in the short run and their uncertainties in the long run. The conditional variances of egg and feed wheat return series were observed to have been positively affected by the uncertainties arising from the exchange rate in the long run, while they were negatively affected by the volatility caused by COVID-19. The depreciation of the Turkish Lira caused a reciprocating increase in the price levels of imported products, such as oil and derivatives, and of feed products which constitute a very important part of egg production costs. The increase in egg production costs, in return, consistently triggered egg prices upwards (with positive returns), causing an increase in uncertainty in the long run. This research provides a perspective for developing policy recommendations for food security if global food supply chains are broken due to any pandemic or a similar crisis (such as the Russia-Ukraine war).

Keywords

Egg and feed wheat prices, COVID-19, Exchange rate, Volatility spillovers, BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) modeli

Türkiye'de COVID-19 Pandemi Sürecinde Yumurta ve Yemlik Buğday Fiyatları Arasındaki Uzun Dönem Oynaklık Yayılımları

Abstract

Tüm dünyaya çok kısa sürede yayılan ve etkisini gösteren COVID-19, tüm tedarik zincirlerinin bozulmasına yol açarak gıda arz ve talebinde olumsuz etkiler meydana getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz kuru ve COVID-19'un dışsal değişken olarak kabul edildiği bir durumda Türkiye'de yumurta ve yemlik buğday piyasaları arasındaki uzun dönem oynaklık yayılımlarını belirlemeyi ve bu yayılımların asimetrik olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu çalışmada 2010:01 ile 2022:03 arasındaki günlük piyasa verileri ve Asimetrik BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) modeli kullanılmıştır. Yumurta ve yemlik buğday getiri serilerinin koşullu varyanslarının hem kısa dönemdeki şoklardan hem de uzun dönemdeki belirsizliklerinden olumlu yönde etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Yumurta ve yemlik buğday getiri serilerinin koşullu varyanslarının uzun dönemde döviz kurundan kaynaklanan belirsizliklerden olumlu, COVID-19 kaynaklı oynaklıktan olumsuz etkilendiği gözlemlenmiştir. Türk Lirasında yaşanan değer kaybı, yumurta üretim maliyetlerinin çok önemli bir bölümünü oluşturan petrol ve türevleri gibi ithal ürünler ile yem ürünlerinin fiyat düzeylerinin karşılıklı olarak artmasına neden olmuştur. Buna karşılık yumurta üretim maliyetlerinin artması, yumurta fiyatlarını sürekli yukarı yönlü (pozitif getirilerle) hareket ettirmiş ve uzun vadede belirsizliğin artmasına neden olmuştur. Bu araştırma, herhangi bir pandemi veya benzeri (Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı gibi) bir kriz nedeniyle küresel gıda tedarik zincirlerinin bozulması durumunda gıda güvenliğine dair politika önerileri geliştirmek için bir perspektif sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Yumurta ve yemlik buğday fiyatları, COVID-19, Oynaklık yayılımları, BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) modeli

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