Meteorolojik Kuraklığın Buğday Verimindeki Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi: Kızılırmak Havzası Örneği

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 10 - 27

Fatma Yaman Öz , Emre Özelkan , Kürşad Demirel , Hasan Tatlı

Abstract

Çalışmada, tarımsal üretimin fazla ve tarımsal kuraklığın etkili olduğu Kızılırmak Havzası’nda ekstrem kurak ayların ve yılların belirlenmesi ile tarımsal kuraklık ile buğday verimi arasındaki ilişkinin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. 1991-2022 yılları arasındaki kuraklık – verim ilişkisinin incelendiği çalışmada, havzada oluşan kuraklık koşullarının belirlenmesinde Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndisi (SPEI) kullanılmıştır. Kuraklık 1, 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık dönemlerde incelenmiştir. Çalışmamızda havzalar arasında aşırı kuraklık değerleri 1994, 2008, 2014 ve 2016 yıllarındadır. Kısa dönemli (1-3 aylık) kuraklık şiddetinin, özellikle çalışma alanının güneyinde karasal iklimin etkili olduğu Kayseri ve Ürgüp istasyonlarında, buğday verimini olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Uzun dönemli (6-12 aylık) kuraklık ise 2007-2014 yılları arasında çalışma alanının güney kesimindeki Nevşehir istasyonunda yüksek korelasyon değerlerine sahip olup, kuraklık şiddetinin arttığı dönemlerde verimde ciddi düşüşler gözlemlenmiştir. Kuraklık şiddeti ve tekrarlama sıklığının, karasal iklim özellikleri, atmosferik koşullar ve artan sıcak hava dalgalarıyla birlikte 2000’li yıllardan itibaren belirgin şekilde arttığı, bu durumun da verim kayıplarına yol açtığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, buğdayın yaklaşık hasat zamanı olan Haziran ayına kadar yaşanan 6 aylık meteorolojik koşulların Kızılırmak Havzası’ndaki buğday verimine etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, kuraklık ve verim arasındaki ilişkinin zamanla değiştiğini ve uzun süreli kuraklık koşullarının tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Meteorolojik kuraklık, SPEI, Kızılırmak Havzası, buğday verimi.

Evaluation of the Effect Meteorological Drought on Wheat Yield: The Example of the Kizilirmak Basin

Abstract

This research, it was aimed to determine the extreme dry months and years in the Kızılırmak basin, where agricultural production is high and agricultural drought is effective, and to evaluate the relationship between agricultural drought and wheat yield. In the study in which the drought - yield relationship between 1991-2022 was examined, Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to determine the drought conditions in the basin. Drought was analysed in 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12-month periods. In Kızılırmak Basin, the class range of normal arid conditions with the highest average frequency value among the drought classes was determined as -0.99 to 0.99. In this study, extreme droughts among the basins were in 1994, 2008, 2014 and 2016. Short-term (1-3 months) drought severity has a negative effect on wheat yield, especially in Kayseri and Ürgüp stations in the south of the study area where continental climate is effective. Long-term (6-12 months) drought had high correlation values at Nevşehir station in the southern part of the study area between 2007-2014, and serious decreases in yield were observed during periods of increased drought severity. It was determined that drought severity and recurrence frequency increased significantly since 2000s with continental climate characteristics, atmospheric conditions and increasing heat waves, which led to yield losses. The obtained findings reveal that the meteorological conditions of 6 months until June, which is approximately the harvest time of wheat, are effective on wheat yield in Kızılırmak Basin. The study shows that the relationship between drought and yield changes over time and that long-term drought conditions negatively affect agricultural production.

Keywords

Meteorological drought, SPEI, Kizilirmak basin, wheat yield.

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