Economic and Agricultural Effects of Climate Change on Forage Crop Yield in Erzurum Province: ARDL Bound Test Approach

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 696 - 704, 23.07.2025

Tuba Karabacak , Melih Okcu

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1656274

Abstract

Climate change has become a phenomenon that significantly affects agricultural production on a global scale. Agricultural production is both affected by climate change and triggers to it through greenhouse gas emissions. Forage crop production, particularly legume forage crops, plays a critical role in both economic and environmental aspects, as it is a fundamental input for livestock farming. This study examines the relationship between forage crop yield and climate variables in Erzurum province, analyzing the long- and short-term effects of annual average temperature and total annual precipitation on forage crop yield using the ARDL bound test approach. The findings indicate that an increase in annual average temperature positively affects forage crop yield, while a decrease in precipitation has a negative impact. The results of the ARDL bound test confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. Additionally, the error correction model analysis suggests that short-term imbalances are largely corrected in the subsequent period, indicating that the system reaches equilibrium in the long run. The results demonstrate that forage crop production in Erzurum province is directly affected by climate change and that changes in climatic conditions are reshaping agricultural production processes. In this regard, promoting climate-resilient forage crop species, expanding modern irrigation techniques, improving soil and water management, adopting agricultural practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and strengthening support mechanisms for producers are recommended. The findings highlight the necessity of developing regional agricultural policies that adapt to climate change.

Keywords

ARDL , Climate Change , Forage Crops , Sustainable Agriculture

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