DEFORESTATION MODELLING USING GIS AND IDRISI SELVA LCM IN BOZDAĞLAR, TURKIYE

Year 2024, , 163 - 176, 31.10.2024

Eylül Malkoç , Engin Nurlu

https://doi.org/10.32328/turkjforsci.1525501

Abstract

Forest presence is critical for ecological balance and is an important defense against global climate change. However, in developing countries, including Turkey, deforestation and forest degradation pose serious threats. The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Climate Agreement emphasize that deforestation and forest degradation accelerate global warming. In this study, deforestation in the Bozdağ Mountains located in the Aegean Region between 1986-2016 was mapped, and deforestation risk was modelled using logistic regression analysis. Independent variables such as altitude, slope, distance to roads, settlements, and agricultural areas were used in the model. The results show that 290 km² of the Bozdağ Mountains have been deforested over the 30-year period and that low-slope areas carry a higher risk of deforestation due to agricultural use. The obtained risk map will contribute to the development of preventive strategies against deforestation.

Keywords

Deforestation and Forest Degradation, LCM, Logistic Regression, Bozdağlar, Türkiye

COĞRAFİ BİLGİ SİSTEMLERİ VE IDRISI SELVA LCM ARACI İLE ORMANSIZLAŞMA MODELLEMESİ: BOZDAĞLAR, TÜRKİYE

Abstract

Orman varlığı ekolojik denge için kritik olup, küresel iklim değişikliğine karşı önemli bir savunma aracıdır. Türkiye’nin de içinde bulunduğu gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ormansızlaşma ve orman bozulması ciddi bir tehdit oluşturmaktadır. Kyoto Protokolü ve Paris İklim Anlaşması, ormansızlaşma ve orman bozulmasının küresel ısınmayı hızlandırdığını vurgulamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ege Bölgesi’nde yer alan Bozdağlar’da 1986-2016 yılları arasında gerçekleşen ormansızlaşma haritalanmış ve lojistik regresyon analizi kullanılarak ormansızlaşma riski modellenmiştir. Modelde, yükseklik, eğim, yollara, yerleşim ve tarım alanlarına uzaklık gibi bağımsız değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, 30 yıllık dönemde Bozdağlar'daki 290 km2 alanın ormansızlaştığını ve düşük eğimli alanların tarımsal kullanım nedeniyle daha yüksek ormansızlaşma riski taşıdığını göstermektedir. Çalışma sonunda elde edilen risk haritası, ormansızlaşmaya karşı önleyici stratejiler geliştirilmesine katkı sağlayacaktır.

Keywords

Ormansızlaşma ve Orman Bozulması, LCM, Lojistik Regresyon, Bozdağlar, Türkiye

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