Tarım Tedarik Zincirinde Bulanık Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemi Kullanılarak Tedarik Zinciri Risk Değerlendirmesi

Abstract

Çalışmanın temel amacı, tarım tedarik zincirinde bulanık çok kriterli karar verme yöntemini kullanarak tedarik zinciri risklerini analiz etmektir. Bu çalışmada, tarım tedarik zinciri risk değerlendirmesinde kriterlerin önem düzeyleri ve ağırlıkları, bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process) yöntemi ile ölçülmüştür. Çalışmanın sonuçları, en önemli risk boyutunun “girdi tedarik riski” olduğunu; bunu sırasıyla “üretim riski”, “pazarlama riski” ve “hasat sonrası risk” boyutunun takip ettiğini göstermektedir. Bulgular, ayrıca; 17 risk arasında “yem ve kaba yem maliyetinin yüksek olması”, “hayvanın hastalığı/yaralanması/sakatlığı” ve “uygun yaşam altyapısının olmaması” en önemli riskler olduğunu göstermektedir. Tarım tedarik zincirleri uzun tedarik süresi, dayanıksızlık, hava koşulları, lojistik sorunlar, arz-talep değişkenliği, fiyat değişkenliği ve çevresel belirsizlikler nedeniyle doğası gereği daha karmaşık hale gelmektedir. Tüm bu değişkenlikler ve belirsizlikler nedeniyle tarım tedarik zinciri çeşitli zafiyetlere ve risklere karşı daha hassas hale gelmektedir. Bu durum, tarım tedarik zinciri risklerini daha etkili ve verimli bir şekilde sürdürülebilir yaklaşımla yönetmemizi gerektirmektedir. Karmaşık tedarik zinciri yapısı ve belirsizlik ortamında, tedarik zinciri risk problemlerini çözmek için çok kriterli karar verme yöntemleri yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın sonuçları, tarım tedarik zinciri paydaşlarının tedarik zinciri risklerini belirlemesine, sınıflandırmasına, analiz etmesine ve riskleri azaltmak veya kontrol altına almak için strateji geliştirmelerinde ve planlama yapmalarında yardımcı olabilir.

Keywords

• Tedarik zinciri
• sürdürülebilirlik
• çok kriterli karar verme
• analitik hiyerarşi süreci
• bulanık mantık

Supply Chain Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making Method in Agricultural Supply Chain

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to analyze supply chain risks in the agricultural supply chain using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method. In this study, the importance levels and weights of the criteria in agricultural supply chain risk assessment were measured using the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The results of the study indicate that the most important risk dimension is "input supply risk", followed respectively by the "production risk", "marketing risk", and "post-harvest risk" dimensions. The findings also demonstrate that among the 17 risks, the "high cost of feed and roughage", "disease/injury/disability of the animal", and "lack of appropriate living infrastructure" are the most important risks. Agricultural supply chains become inherently more complex due to long lead times, perishability, weather conditions, logistical issues, supply-demand variability, price volatility, and environmental uncertainties. Due to all these variations and uncertainties, the agricultural supply chain becomes more vulnerable to various weaknesses and risks. This situation requires us to manage agricultural supply chain risks more effectively and efficiently through a sustainable approach. In a complex supply chain structure and environment of uncertainty, multi-criteria decision-making methods are widely used to solve supply chain risk problems. The results of this research can assist agricultural supply chain stakeholders in identifying, classifying, and analyzing supply chain risks, as well as in planning and developing strategies to mitigate or control these risks.

Keywords

• Supply chain
• sustainability
• multi-criteria decision making
• Analytic Hierarchy Process
• fuzzy logic

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