Integration of AHP and machine learning methods for flood susceptibility analysis in a Meandering River
Abstract
Floods, caused by the overflow of water from natural channels, are among the most destructive natural hazards, affecting human life, property, and ecosystems. Their impact is increasingly significant due to climate change and human-induced land use changes. This study aims to evaluate flood susceptibility in the Sarayköy district of Denizli province using spatial approaches and to compare the predictive performance of different modeling techniques. Four models were applied: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machines (SVM). While AHP relies on expert judgment and hierarchical weighting of criteria, MaxEnt, RF, and SVM are machine learning-based approaches. Model performance was assessed using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Results show that MaxEnt achieved the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.86), followed by RF (0.82), SVM (0.79), and AHP (0.73), highlighting the superior predictive capability of machine learning methods compared to traditional techniques. Machine learning models demonstrated particularly high accuracy in river channels and low-gradient plains, indicating their applicability for disaster risk management. Although AHP produced broader and less sensitive classifications, it remains valuable for rapid preliminary assessments, especially in data-scarce regions. Overall, this study confirms that numerical and spatial analysis of flood risk can be effectively conducted using machine learning approaches, and future research should explore model application across diverse regions, integration of additional hydro-meteorological parameters, and combined modeling strategies to improve risk prediction. Such advances will support more effective, rapid, and spatially-informed decision-making in flood risk management.
Keywords
Flood susceptibility Multi criteria decision Open access data Remote sensing Machine learning
Ethical Statement
In the study, the authors declare that there is no violation of research and publication ethics and that the study does not require ethics committee approval.
Supporting Institution
This study received no external funding
Thanks
There is no acknowledgment.
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Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Physical Geography and Environmental Geology (Other) |
| Journal Section | Research Article |
| Authors | |
| Submission Date | September 23, 2025 |
| Acceptance Date | December 5, 2025 |
| Publication Date | March 25, 2026 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1789569 |
| IZ | https://izlik.org/JA66KF92NU |
| Published in Issue | Year 2026 Volume: 8 |
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References, tables, figures to be used must be prepared in accordance with APA 7. Articles that do not comply with the rules of writing and APA are eliminated in the first stage by the editor. You should review your references and check their compliance with APA 7. Some expamlpes of citations/references are given below;
References within the text;
(1) (Orhan, 2021). (Çoruhlu & Çelik, 2022). (Orhan et al., 2023; Zheng et al., 2025)
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Articles
Surname, N., Surname, N., & Surname, N. (Year). Name of the article. Journal’s name, Vol(No), pp. XX-XX. (If there is doi)
Orhan, O. (2021). Land suitability determination for citrus cultivation using a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis in Mersin, Turkey. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 190, 106433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2021.106433
Çoruhlu, Y. E., & Çelik, M. Ö. (2022). Protected area geographical management model from design to implementation for specially protected environment area. Land Use Policy, 122, 106357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106357
Books
Orhan, O., & Makineci, H. B. (2023). Agricultural land suitability analysis. Encyclopedia of Smart Agriculture Technologies. Springer.
e-Books
Brück, M. (2009). Women in early British and Irish astronomy: Stars and satellites. Springer Nature. https:/doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2473-2
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Contact:
Address: Mersin University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Geomatics Engineering,
Çiftlikköy Campus, 33343, Yenişehir/Mersin, Turkey
Ethical Principles and Publication Policy
Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing (TJRS) is committed to upholding the highest ethical standards in the publication of scientific research. Our ethical principles and publication policies are aligned with internationally recognized guidelines provided by organizations such as the World Association of Medical Editors (WAME), the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE), and the Declaration of Helsinki. We are dedicated to ensuring that all published research adheres to the ethical standards expected by the global scientific community.
1. Ethical Responsibilities of Authors
Authors submitting to Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing are expected to:
- Ensure that their work is original, free of plagiarism, and has not been published elsewhere.
- Provide accurate and honest reporting of their research, including proper attribution of all sources.
- Disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may affect the integrity of the research.
- Obtain necessary ethical approvals for studies involving human or animal subjects, as per the Declaration of Helsinki guidelines.
- Adhere to best practices in data management, ensuring that all research data is handled responsibly and made available upon request for verification.
2. Ethical Responsibilities of Editors
Editors of Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing are responsible for:
- Impartial Evaluation: All submitted manuscripts are evaluated based on their academic merit, without regard to the authors' personal characteristics such as race, gender, religious beliefs, or political views.
- Confidentiality: Editors must ensure that all manuscripts remain confidential and are shared only with those directly involved in the publication process.
- Final Decision Making: While referees’ reports are crucial to the review process, the final decision on whether to accept or reject a manuscript rests with the Editor-in-Chief, in line with the ethical standards set by COPE.
- Addressing Ethical Concerns: Editors must act on any allegations of misconduct such as plagiarism or falsification of data, following COPE guidelines for investigation and resolution.
3. Ethical Responsibilities of Reviewers
Peer reviewers play a crucial role in maintaining the quality and integrity of published research. Reviewers are expected to:
- Provide Objective Reviews: Review manuscripts fairly, without personal bias, and provide constructive feedback aimed at improving the manuscript.
- Maintain Confidentiality: Treat all manuscripts as confidential documents and refrain from discussing or sharing them with others outside the review process.
- Declare Conflicts of Interest: Disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may influence their review, including financial, professional, or personal connections with the authors.
4. Publication Integrity
Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing adheres to the following practices to ensure the integrity of its publication process:
- Corrections and Retractions: If a significant error or ethical breach is identified in a published article, the journal will issue a correction or, if necessary, retract the article, following COPE retraction guidelines.
- Conflict of Interest Disclosure: Both authors and reviewers must disclose any financial or personal conflicts of interest that may influence the research or review process.
- Open Access Policy: The journal supports open access to all published articles, ensuring free and unrestricted access to scientific knowledge in accordance with the Budapest Open Access Initiative.
5. Research Involving Human and Animal Subjects
For research involving human participants or animals, Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing follows the ethical principles laid out in the Declaration of Helsinki and relevant national and international guidelines. Researchers must ensure:
- Proper ethical approvals are obtained from relevant ethics committees.
- Participants provide informed consent for studies involving human subjects.
- Welfare and humane treatment of animals are strictly adhered to in research.
Ethics Committee Approval
An Ethics Committee Approval document must be submitted for the publication application of articles that require ethics committee approval.
The Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing has been checking the ethical committee approval status of articles submitted since 2020. In this context, if your study falls into a category that requires ethical committee approval, you must upload the permission document along with your article files. Studies submitted to the journal that require ethical committee approval but lack the necessary permission documents will not be considered for evaluation.
Information regarding ethics committee approval is shared on the “Ethics Committee Approval” page.
Publication Policy
Publication Period of Journal
- Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing is a peer-reviewed journal published biannually, with issues released in June and December.
Publication Fee
- Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing does not charge any fees for the assessment/publishing processes of the submitted manuscripts.
Price Policy
Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing does not charge any fee from the authors during the evaluation, preparation and publication of the articles.
Indexes
Journal Boards
Editör
Editör Yardımcısı
Ahmet Tarık TORUN, halihazırda Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Tapu Kadastro Yüksekokulu'nda görev yapmaktadır. Aksaray Üniversitesi Harita Mühendisliği Lisnas, Yüksek Lisans ve Doktora derecelerine sahiptir. Aktif ve Pasif Uzaktan Algılama, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri ve Yer Bilimleri alanlarında çalışmalar yapmaktadır.
Mustafa Üstüner lisans derecesini Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Jeodezi ve Fotogrametri Mühendisliği bölümünden, yüksek lisans ve doktora derecelerini ise Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Harita Mühendisliği bölümünden almıştır. Yüksek lisans eğitimi sırasında YÖK bursu ile Güney Florida Üniversitesi’nde (University of South Florida) ve doktora eğitimi sırasında ise TÜBİTAK bursu ile Friedrich Schiller Üniversitesi Jena’da (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) misafir araştırmacı olarak bulunmuştur. 2021-2025 yılları arasında itibaren Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Harita Mühendisliği bölümünde Dr. Öğretim Üyesi olarak çalışmıştır. 2025 yılından itibaren Samsun Üniversitesi'nde Dr. Öğretim Üyesi olarak görev almaktadır.
Dr. Üstüner’in araştırmaları, SAR/PolSAR uydu görüntülerinin işlenmesi ve analizi, uzaktan algılama ve topluluk öğrenme algoritmaları konuları üzerine yoğunlaşmıştır ve bu konularda ulusal/uluslararası bilimsel dergilerde makaleleri bulunmaktadır. IEEE Yer Bilimleri ve Uzaktan Algılama Topluluğu (IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society), Uluslararası Fotogrametri ve Uzaktan Algılama Birliği (International Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing) ve Harita ve Kadastro Mühendisleri Odası (HMKO) üyesidir.
Türkiye Uzaktan Algılama Dergisi (Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing - TJRS) ve European Journal of Remote Sensing dergilerinin editör kurulunda bulunan Dr. Üstüner, çok sayıda bilimsel dergide hakemlikler yapmış ve 2018 yılında yer bilimleri alanında Publons tarafından “Top peer reviewer” ödülü almıştır. IEEE GRSS tarafından düzenlenmiş olan IGARSS 2020 (2020 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium) ve M2GARSS 2022 (the Mediterranean and Middle-East Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium 2022) sempozyumlarının düzenleme kurullarında yer almıştır. Ayrıca, IEEE GRSS Türkiye bölümü yönetim kurulunda genç profesyonel (Young Professional) temsilcisi olarak görev almaktadır.
Editorial Board / Yayın Kurulu
Fabiana Calò received her Master’s degree in Environmental Engineering from Politecnico di Bari and a PhD in Analysis of Environmental Systems at University of Napoli Federico II. She has been Visiting Scientist at Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, Ottawa (2008) and Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul (2014-2015). Since 2010 she works at National Research Council (CNR) of Italy, Institute of Electromagnetic Sensing of Environment in Napoli, first as Post-Doc fellow and then as permanent Researcher. Her research interests mainly focus on the study of natural and man-made hazards, and on the natural resources protection by integrating ground-based and Earth Observation data and information.
Ankara Anadolu lisesinden mezun olduktan sonra lisans eğitimimi Peyzaj Mimarlığı Alanında, yüksek lisans eğitimlerimi Peyzaj Planlama ve Çevre Yönetimi alanlarında, doktora eğitimimi ise Çevre Ekonomisi alanında tamamladım. Sırasıyla Ankara Üniversitesinde, University of Massachussetts'de (Dünya Bankası Bursuyla), TUBİTAK'ta, American Geomatics Group, Geotech Şirketinde ve son olarak Anadolu Üniversitesi Mimarlık Bölümü ve Yer ve Uzay Bilimleri Enstitülerinde görev aldım. 9 sene Yer ve Uzay Bilimleri Enstitü Müdürlüğü yanı sıra Mimarlık, Temel Tasarım Eğitimi ve Moda Tasarımı Bölümlerinde Bölüm Başkanı görevleri yaptım, Uzaktan Algılama ve CBS ABD Başkanlığı görevini üstlendim. Eskişehir Teknik Üniversitesinde Rektör Yardımcısı ve Mimarlık ve Tasarım Fakültesi Dekanı olarak görev yaptım. Halen Tasarım ve Planlama Akreditasyon Derneği Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı olarak görev yapıyorum.
Çevreye tehdit olmayan ve çevrenin özellikle afetlerin tehdit etmediği insan yerleşimlerinin araştırılması amacıyla özellikle coğrafi bilgi sistemleri başta olmak üzere, uzaktan algılama, yersel fotogrametri, hava fotogrametrisi vb teknolojilerin kullanılması ve yaygınlaşması amacıyla çok sayıda ulusal-uluslararası projede çalıştım, çeşitli akademik programların ve eğitim programlarının kuruluşunda katkılar sağladım, çok sayıda ulusal ve uluslararası kuruluşla bu maksatla işbirliği yaptım.
Özetle yere - dünyaya - saygı duyan nesillerin yetişmesine ve bu nesillerin yolunu aydınlatacak projelere katkı sağlamaya çalışan bir Dünya ve vatan sevdalısıyım. Bugüne kadar çok sayıda ışık yaktım, bunların önce ülkemizi, ardından dünyayı aydınlatmasını görmek için elimden gelen herşeyi yapmaya çalışıyorum. Bu ışıkların dünyamızı aydınlatmasına katkı sağlayabileceğinizi düşünüyorsanız, benimle iletişime geçebilirsiniz.
Giuseppe Pulighe is a researcher at the Research Center for Agricultural Policies and Bioeconomy, part of the Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA). His work spans several critical areas, including agronomy, bioenergy, land use change, water management, remote sensing, and geographic information systems (GIS). Giuseppe Pulighe has made significant contributions to his field, authoring over 60 publications in reputable journals and presenting his research at numerous conferences. He also regularly serves as a reviewer for international scientific journals.
I received my Ph.D. in engineering with a certificate of commendation from the Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Kanazawa University in Japan in 2015. Subsequently, I was awarded a JSPS fellowship, a prestigious award in Japan with an acceptance rate below 10%, and I worked as a research fellow at the Tokyo Institute of Technology for a duration of two years, spanning from 2016 to 2018. In 2019, I served as a postdoctoral researcher at RIKEN, Geoinformatics Unit. From 2019 to 2024, I was an assistant professor in Department of Remote Sensing and GIS in the University of Tabriz. I also visited Gebze Technical University (GTU) and Istanbul Technical University (ITU) as a TUBITAK-supported visitor in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Since 2024, I am an associate professor in Department of Remote Sensing and GIS in the University of Tabriz. I am also an IEEE GRSS (Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society) Senior Member from 2025.
Dr. Dursun Zafer Şeker, Doktora eğitimini Türkiye’de İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (İTÜ) Geomatik Mühendisliği alanında yapmıştır. Doktora sonrası çalışmalarını İngiltere’de Newcastle upon Tyne Üniversitesi’nde gerçekleştirmiştir. 2004 yılından bu yana İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Geomatik Mühendisliği Bölümü’nde profesör olarak görev yapmaktadır; daha önce aynı bölümde 1998–2004 yılları arasında doçentlik görevini yürütmüştür. Japonya’da Gifu Üniversitesi’nde 1,5 yıl süreyle misafir profesör olarak bulunmuştur. Lisans programında Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri, Yakın Fotogrametri, Proje Planlama ve Yönetimi derslerini vermektedir. Ayrıca, Kıyı Bilimi ve Mühendisliği Sistemleri yüksek lisans programında Kıyı Verisi Yönetim Sistemleri dersini yürütmektedir. İTÜ’de çeşitli lisansüstü programlarda da birçok ders vermektedir. Coğrafi Bilgi Teknolojileri (GIT) Yüksek Lisans ve Doktora programlarının koordinatörliğini 10 yıldan uzun süredir sürdürmektedir. 2006–2017 yılları arasında Harita ve Kadastro Mühendisleri Odası Fotogrametri ve Uzaktan Algılama Teknik Komisyonu Başkanlığı görevini yürütmüştür. Uzmanlık alanları; CBS, Fotogrametri, Uzaktan Algılama, Kıyı Alanları Yönetimi, Entegre Havza Yönetimi ve teorik ve uygulamalı açıdan Mekânsal Veri Modellemesi ve Analizi konuları ile birlikte makine öğrenmesi ve derin öğrenme konularında da çalışmaları vardır. Bu alanlarda ulusal ve uluslararası, disiplinlerarası birçok araştırma projesinde görev almıştır. 130’dan fazla SCI indeksli uluslararası makale ve 250’den fazla bildiri sahibidir. Ayrıca birçok saygın uluslararası dergide hakemlik yapmakta ve IJEGEO dâhil olmak üzere çeşitli ulusal ve uluslararası dergilerin editörler kurulunda görev almaktadır.
Dr. Aşır Yüksel Kaya lisans derecesini Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Coğrafya bölümünden, yüksek lisans ve doktora derecelerini ise Fırat Üniversitesi Coğrafya bölümünden almıştır. Doktora eğitimi sırasında TÜBİTAK bursu ile Birmingham City Üniversitesinde (İngiltere) misafir araştırmacı olarak bulunmuştur. Doktora sonrasında ise Griffith University Cities Research Institute Post Doktora araştırmalarında bulunmuştır. 2020 yılından itibaren Fırat Üniversitesi Coğrafya bölümünde Dr. Öğretim Üyesi olarak çalışmaktadır. Dr. Kaya’nın araştırmaları, Kent ve kentleşme analizleri, CBS ve uzaktan algılama algoritmaları konuları üzerine yoğunlaşmıştır ve bu konularda ulusal/uluslararası bilimsel dergilerde makaleleri bulunmaktadır. Dr. Kaya Griffith University Cities Research Institute Adjunct Members olarak çalışmalarına devam etmektedir.
Omid Ghorbanzadeh holds a BSc in Mathematics, MSc in RS & GIS, and a Ph.D. in Applied Geoinformatics from the University of Salzburg, Austria, in 2021. Currently, he's a Senior Researcher at BOKU in Vienna. Omid's research focuses on developing Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) and Geo-explainable (Geo-X) AI for RS applications. He's published in journals like Mathematics and IEEE TGRS and received multiple best paper awards. He is also among the 'World's Top 2% Scientists' in Stanford University's 2023, and 2024 ranking.
João Pedro Carvalho received the M.Sc. (Hons.) and Ph.D. degrees in electrical and computer engineering from FCT NOVA, Portugal, in 2017 and 2021, respectively. He is currently Assistant Professor at the Dept. of Informatics of the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon. Since 2025, he has been an Integrated Member of LASIGE and collaborator of the Center of Technology and Systems (CTS), UNINOVA, and COPELABS. He won the highly competitive Scientific Employment Stimulus (CEEC institutional) FCT grant in 2021. He has published more than 50 papers in international journals and international conferences in the fields of remote sensing, pattern recognition, machine learning, sensor networks, and signal processing, with significant recognition and impact in the research community.
Bilimsel çalışmaları, veri odaklı öğrenmeyi biçimsel mekânsal, sayısal ve geometrik modellerle bütünleştiren hibrit yapay zekâ çerçevelerine yoğunlaşmaktadır. Bu yöntemler; uzaktan algılama, LiDAR ve fotogrametrik veri işleme, mekânsal karar destek sistemleri ve veritabanı merkezli analitik mimarilerde uygulanmaktadır.
Artur Janowski, uluslararası dergilerde yayımlanmış 120’den fazla hakemli makalenin yazarı veya ortak yazarıdır. Ulusal Bilim Merkezi (NCN) ve Avrupa Uzay Ajansı (ESA) dâhil olmak üzere, kamu kurumları ve uluslararası kuruluşlar tarafından finanse edilen çok sayıda ulusal ve uluslararası araştırma ve uygulama projesinde yer almıştır. Son dönem çalışmaları; akıllı kentsel altyapı sistemleri, otomatik gayrimenkul analizi, artırılmış ve karma gerçeklik uygulamaları ile yapay zekâ destekli mekânsal değerleme metodolojilerini kapsamaktadır.
Uluslararası bilimsel dergiler ve araştırma programları için hakem ve uzman olarak görev yapmaktadır. Güncel araştırma ilgi alanları arasında açıklanabilir ve hibrit makine öğrenmesi, büyük ölçekli coğrafi veri füzyonu ve sosyo-ekonomik ile çevresel uygulamalarda güvenilir yapay zekâ sistemlerinin hayata geçirilmesi yer almaktadır.
Prof. Dr. Khalil Valizadeh Kamran is currently working as a Full Professor in the Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, University of Tabriz , Iran. His research interests includes Land use/Land cover classification, monitoring and change detection, Image processing, Thermal remote sensing, Remote sensing and GIS applied to climatology,Remote sensing and GIS application for Geohazard monitoring and risk assessment, SAR image processing, GIS based climatology. He is serving as an editorial member and reviewer of several international reputed journals. Dr. Khalil Valizadeh Kamran is the member of many international affiliations. He has successfully completed his Administrative responsibilities. He has authored of many research articles/books related to Land use.
Danışma Kurulu
Caner Ozdemir received the B.S.E.E. degree in 1992 from the Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, and the M.S.E. and Ph. D. degrees in Electrical & Computer Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin in 1995 and 1998, respectively.
From 1992 to 1993, he worked as a project engineer at the Electronic Warfare Programs Directorate of ASELSAN Electronic Industries Inc., Ankara, Turkey. From 1998 to 2000, he worked as a research scientist at Electronic & Avionics Systems (ASTG) group of AlliedSignal Inc., Columbia, Maryland. He joined the faculty of Mersin University in 2000 and is currently a professor in the department of Electrical-Electronics Engineering, Mersin, Turkey. He has been serving as a consultant to the Marmara Research Center of the Scientific and Research Council (TUBITAK) of Turkey and many defense industry firms. Dr. Ozdemir’s research interests are radar cross section, radar image/signal processing, inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR), radar cross section, ground penetrating radar, through-the-wall imaging radar and antenna design. He has published more than 180 journal articles and conference/symposium papers on these subjects.
Dr. Ozdemir is a recipient of URSI EMT-S Young Scientist Award in the 2004 International Symposium on Electromagnetic Theory in Pisa, Italy and also recipient of a JARS best paper award for photo-optical instrumentation published in the Journal of Applied Remote Sensing in 2016. He is the author of the book titled “Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging with Matlab Algorithms”.
Aktif araştırma alanları; Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi (CBS) ve Uzaktan Algılama (UA) tekniklerini kullanarak; yeraltı sularının kirlenmeye karşı hassasiyetinin ve potansiyelinin değerlendirilmesi, yer seçimi, çeşitli coğrafi unsurlara ait morfometrik özelliklerinin belirlenmesi, arazi kullanımına ait zamansal değişimlerin, yüzey sıcaklığının ve bitki örtüsünün haritalanması ve belirlenmesi konularını içermektedir.
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