Developing A Nonlinear Model to Estimate Ground Level Fine Particle Concentrations Using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Data, Which Can Be Obtained Through Satellites

Öz

Fine particles (PM2.5) are shown to be associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Therefore, there is a need to monitor PM2.5 concentrations to protect public health as well as to meet the demands of regulatory agencies. However, maintaining such big observational networks to achieve comprehensive data on PM2.5 is very costly, especially for the less-privileged communities. The emergence of satellites has opened cheaper ways to gather data in any place over several years and this, in turn, has opened new ways of air quality monitoring. In the current study, we developed a non-linear model that correlates aerosol optical depth (AOD) data (obtained from a satellite) and meteorological parameters (wind and temperature) to PM2.5. The study was conducted for one month (November 2016) in Hillsborough County, Florida. The R-squared of the model was 0.53. All three parameters (wind, temperature, and AOD) were found to improve model results. The regression coefficient for the AOD was positive while it was negative for the wind as expected. However, the regression coefficient for the temperature was negative. It could be due to the small size of the sample or the fact that temperature increases the ratio of the sulfate content to the organic carbon of PM2.5. This study is an example of applications to evaluate the quality of empirical models and to determine to what extent satellite data can yield reliable results.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Aerosol Optical Depth
• Air Quality
• Fine Particles

Uydulardan Elde Edilebilen Aerosol Optik Derinlik Verilerini Kullanarak Zemin Seviyesi İnce Partikül Konsantrasyonlarını Tahmin Etmek İçin Doğrusal Olmayan Bir Model Geliştirilmesi

Öz

İnce partiküllerin (PM2.5) kardiyovasküler mortalite ve morbidite ile ilişkili olduğu gösterilmiştir. Bu nedenle, halk sağlığını korumak ve düzenleyici kurumların taleplerini karşılamak için PM2.5 konsantrasyonunun izlenmesi gerekmektedir. Bununla birlikte, hakkında kapsamlı veri elde etmek için bu kadar büyük gözlem ağlarının korunması oldukça maliyetlidir (özellikle de daha az ayrıcalıklı topluluklar için). Uyduların ortaya çıkışı, belirli bir zaman periyodunda herhangi bir yerde veri toplamak için daha ucuz yollar açmış ve bu da hava kalitesi izleme çalışmaları için yeni fırsatlar doğurmuştur. Bu çalışmada uydulardan elde edilebilen aerosol optik derinlik (AOD) verisini ve rüzgar ile sıcaklık gibi meteorolojik parametreleri PM2.5 ile ilişkilendiren doğrusal olmayan bir model geliştirdik. Çalışma bir aylık (Kasım 2016) zaman dilimini kapsamaktadır ve çalışma alanı Hillsborough Vilayeti'dir (Florida). Modelin R kare değeri 0,53 olarak bulundu ve üç parametrenin (rüzgar, sıcaklık ve AOD) model sonuçlarını iyileştirdiği görüldü. Beklenildiği gibi AOD için regresyon katsayısı pozitifti ve rüzgar için ise negatifti. Ancak, sıcaklık için regresyon katsayısı negatifti. Bunun sebebi numunenin azlığından veya sıcaklığın, PM2.5’daki sülfat içeriğinin organik karbona oranını arttırmasından olabilir. Bu çalışma ampirik modellerin kalitesini değerlendirmek ve uydu verilerinin ne ölçüde güvenilir sonuçlar verebileceğini belirlemek için yapılan uygulamalara bir örnek oluşturmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Aerosol Optik Derinlik
• Hava Kalitesi
• İnce Partiküller

Kaynakça

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