Gıda Fiyatları ve Para Politikası: Türkiye’den Bulgular

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 554 - 575, 06.10.2025

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1679050

Abstract

Bu çalışma, para politikası ve gıda fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi küçük ülke örneği Türkiye özelinde araştırmaktadır. Gıda fiyatları ve para politikası arasındaki dinamik ilişki Yapısal VAR yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Yinelemesiz tanımlama varsayımları, ekonomik teoriyle uyumlu olarak küçük-açık ekonomi karakteristik özelliklerine dayanılarak oluşturulmuştur. Ampirik sonuçlar, genişletici para politikasının gıda fiyatlarını düşürdüğünü göstermektedir. Gıda fiyatları düşen faiz oranları ile aynı yönde hareket ettiğinden, genişletici para politikası fiyat bulmacası yaratmakta ve gıda fiyatları üzerinde istikrar sağlamaktadır. Gıda fiyatlarına benzer olarak, genişletici para politikası genel fiyatlar üzerinde de fiyat bulmacası yaratmaktadır. Talep kanalının göreceli zayıflığı, gıda ve tüketici enflasyonuyla mücadelede geleneksel olmayan genişletici para politikası uygulamalarının önerilmesine olanak tanımaktadır. Ayrıca, uygulanan dirençlilik testleri elde edilen sonuçların dirençli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Para Politikası , Gıda Fiyatları , Yapısal VAR

Food Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between monetary policy and food prices over the period of 2011:M1-2024:M9 in the case of a small economy, Türkiye. We perform a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to capture the dynamic relationship between monetary policy and food prices. Our non-recursive identification scheme is formed based on the small-open economy characteristics which are in line with economic theory. Our empirical results showed that expansionary monetary policy is associated with a fall in food prices. As food prices move in the same direction with the decreasing interest rate, an expansionary monetary policy shock generates price puzzle and stabilizes food prices. Similar to food prices consideration, expansionary monetary policy also generates price puzzle in overall economy. The relative weakness of the demand channel allows us to recommend unconventional expansionary monetary policy practice in fighting against food and consumer inflation. We also performed several robustness checks and found that our results are robust.

Keywords

Monetary Policy , Food Prices , Structural VAR

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