The Relationship Between Development and Traffic Accidents in Turkey: The Kuznets Curve Approach

Abstract

Traffic accidents have been among the significant socioeconomic problems for society since the widespread use of motor vehicles. In this context, all measures and elements that reduce accidents and their negative consequences, which can lead to life-threatening outcomes such as disability, injury, and even death, aside from material damage, have gained importance. This study aims to examine the effects of development on the number of traffic accident fatalities in Turkey specifically during the period 2002-2023. The Fractional Frequency Fourier A-ARDL bounds test approach was used to analyze the relevant relationships. The analysis findings reveal the non-linear effect of the human development index on accident-related deaths. Accordingly, the rise in Turkey's Human Development Index (HDI) contributed to an increase in accident-related deaths until 2015; however, after this year, it began to have the opposite effect, leading to a decline in the number of deaths. This situation confirms the Kuznets Curve for traffic safety in Turkey. In the long run, the urbanization rate, and in the short run, increases in the internet penetration rate contribute to a reduction in traffic-related fatalities.

Keywords

• Traffic accidents
• Development
• Human development index

Türkiye’de Kalkınma ve Trafik Kazaları İlişkisi: Kuznets Eğrisi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Trafik kazaları motorlu araç kullanımının yaygınlaştığından bu yana toplum açısından önemli sosyoekonomik sorunlar arasında yer almaktadır. Bu bağlamda, maddi zararları bir yana sakatlık, yaralanma ve hatta ölüm gibi yaşamsal sonuçlar doğurabilen kazaları ve olumsuz sonuçlarını azaltıcı tüm önlem ve unsurlar da önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de 2002-2023 dönemi özelinde kalkınmanın trafik kazalarında ölen sayısı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. İlgili ilişkilerin analizi için Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier A-ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Analiz bulguları insani gelişim endeksinin kazaya bağlı ölümler üzerinde doğrusal olmayan etkisini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre Türkiye’de insani gelişim endeksindeki yükseliş, 2015 yılına kadar kazaya bağlı ölümleri artırırken; bu tarihten itibaren tam tersi bir etki oluşturarak ölüm sayısını düşürmeye başlamıştır. Bu durum Türkiye’de trafik güvenliği Kuznets Eğrisinin doğrulandığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca uzun dönemde kentleşme hızı; kısa dönemde ise internet kullanım oranında yaşanan artışlar kazaya bağlı ölümleri azaltmaktadır.

Keywords

• Trafik kazaları
• Kalkınma
• İnsani Gelişim Endeksi
• Fourier ARDL

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