FEEDBACK MECHANISM IN MONEY MARKETS AND FINANCIAL CRISES / Para Piyasalarında Geri Besleme Mekanizması Ve Finansal Krizler

Abstract

The theory of reflexivity was put forward by George Soros in 1988 and is based mainly on the argument that the efficient market hypothesis of mainstream economics is not valid. Contrary to the mainstream economics theory, neither market participants nor monetary and fiscal authorities can make decisions based solely on knowledge. Accordingly, instead of equilibrium in long run, boom/bust cycles are inevitable in financial markets. The underlying factor behind this view is that prices set by irrational market participants affect the fundamentals, which affect prices, etc., in a “reflexive” feedback loop. With the feedback mechanism, ballooning and rapid fading of the system at the market is inevitable. In this context, the theory of reflexivity questions the existence of the market equilibrium process, emphasizing expectations in accordance with the Keynesian view.

Keywords

• Reflexivity Theory,Financial Crises,Keynesian,Asset Prices

PARA PİYASALARINDA GERİ BESLEME MEKANİZMASI VE FİNANSAL KRİZLER / Feedback Mechanism In Money Markets And Financial Crises

Abstract

Refleksivite teorisi 1988 yılında George Soros tarafından ortaya atılmış ve temelde ana akım iktisat yaklaşımında yer alan etkin piyasa hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı savına dayanmaktadır. Ana akım iktisat teorisinin aksine, ne piyasa katılımcıları ne de parasal ve mali otoriteler kararlarını salt bilgiye dayandırabilirler. Buna göre piyasalarda uzun dönemde denge yerine varlık balonları oluşması kaçınılmazdır. Bu görüşün altında yatan esas etken irrasyonel piyasa katılımcıları tarafından belirlenen piyasa fiyatlarının gerçek fiyatları ve dönüşümlü olarak refleksiv geri besleme mekanizması içinde yeniden piyasa fiyatlarını etkilemesidir. Geri besleme mekanizması ile piyasalarda sistemin balonlaşması ve hızla sönmesi kaçınılmaz hale gelir. Bu bağlamda refleksivite teorisi, Keynesyen görüş ile uyumlu bir şekilde beklentilere vurgu yaparak, piyasa denge sürecinin varlığını sorgular.

Keywords

• Refleksivite Teorisi,Finansal Krizler,Keynesyen,Varlık Fiyatları

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