PREDICTION OF BITCOIN PRICE WITH STOCK TO FLOW MODEL AND FACEBOOK PROPHET ALGORITHM / Stok Akış Modeli Ve Facebook Prophet Algoritması İle Bitcoin Fiyatı Tahmini

Abstract

Whether money is solid or not can be understood by looking at two values. The first is the stock status indicating the supply and the second is the flow value indicating the unit to be produced in the ongoing process. The ratio between stock and flow can be expressed as an indicator of the strength of the good defined as money. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency whose total supply is limited to 21,000,000 units. The limited supply is considered as a factor that will increase its price. The Stock Flow Model can also be used for assets with limited supply. In this study, Bitcoin price prediction is made using the Facebook Prophet algorithm which is one of the time series analysis models. Bitcoin data between 2013-2020 were used, the Stock to Flow Rate obtained from the Stock Flow Model was also added to the model, unlike other studies. According to the results of the study supported by the accuracy measures, it was concluded that the performance of the model increased when the Facebook Prophet algorithm was used by including the Stock Flow Ratio in the model.

Keywords

• Cryptocurrencies
• Bitcoin
• Stock to Flow Model
• Facebook Prophet

STOK AKIŞ MODELİ VE FACEBOOK PROPHET ALGORİTMASI İLE BİTCOİN FİYATI TAHMİNİ / Prediction of Bitcoin Price with Stock to Flow Model and Facebook Prophet Algorithm

Abstract

Bir paranın sağlam olup olmadığı iki değere bakılarak anlaşılabilmektedir. İlki arzını gösteren stok durumu, ikincisi ise devam eden süreçte üretilecek olan birimi gösteren akış değeridir. Stok ve akış arasındaki oran, para olarak tanımlanan malın sağlamlığının göstergesi olarak ifade edilebilmektedir. Bitcoin, toplam arzı 21.000.000 adet ile sınırlı olan bir kripto paradır. Arzının sınırlı olması, fiyatını yükseltecek bir etmen olarak düşünülmektedir. Stok Akış Modeli de arzı sınırlı olan varlıklar için kullanılabilir. Bu çalışmada zaman serisi analiz modellerinden Facebook Prophet algoritması kullanılarak Bitcoin fiyat tahmini yapılmıştır. 2013-2020 yılları arasındaki günlük verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak Stok Akış Modeli’nden elde edilen Stok Akış Oranı da modele eklenmiştir. Doğruluk ölçüleri ile desteklenen çalışma sonuçlarına göre Stok Akış Oranı’nın modele dâhil edilmesi ile Facebook Prophet algoritması kullanıldığında modelin performansının arttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Son olarak, Prophet yöntemi, ARIMA yöntemine göre daha etkin sonuçlar verdiği elde edilen bulgular arasındadır.

Keywords

• Kripto Paralar
• Bitcoin
• Stok Akış Modeli
• Facebook Prophet

Thanks

Bu çalışmada ifade edilen görüşler yazarlara ait olup, çalıştıkları kurumların görüşleri olarak yorumlanmamalıdır. Stok Akış Modeli uygulamalarına ilham veren PlanB (@100trillionUSD) ile veri setinin elde edilmesinde yardımcı olan Rob Wolfram’a (@hamal03) saygılar sunarız.

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