A BOOTSTRAP PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES / Politik İstikrarsızlık Ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkilerin Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi İle Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 239 - 252, 23.10.2019

Mustafa Özer , Merve Kocaman

https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.585261

Cited By: 3

Abstract

In this study, we try to analyze the
causal relationship between political instability and macroeconomic variables
for selected emerging markets such as Turkey, India, Russia, Mexico and
Indonesia by using panel bootstrap causality tests over the period of 1992 and
2016. Selected macroeconomic variables are growth, inflation and exchange rate.
Even though the results of the study differ across nations in the panel and not
indicating to many causal relations, they provide the evidences of causal
relations between political instability and some macroeconomic variables.
Although it is hard to generalize the major findings of the study to all
countries in the sample, still we can conclude that unlike the expectations,
changes in most of the macroeconomic variables do cause in changes in political
instability. Thus, achieving economic stability in terms of low inflation, high
growth and stable exchange rate seem to be key factors to achieve political
stability. 

Keywords

Political Instability, Cross-Sectional Dependence, Slope Homogeneity, Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality

A BOOTSTRAP PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES / Politik İstikrarsızlık Ve Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkilerin Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi İle Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye, Hindistan, Rusya,
Meksika ve Endonezya yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için, 1992 ve 2016 dönemleri
arasındaki verilerle, panel bootstrap nedensellik testini kullanarak politik
istikrarsızlık ve makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini
analiz etmek amaçlanmıştır. Seçilmiş makroekonomik değişkenler büyüme,
enflasyon ve döviz kurudur. Çalışmanın sonuçları paneldeki ülkeler arasında farklılık
gösterip çok fazla nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını işaret etmesine rağmen,
politik istikrarsızlık ve bazı makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik
ilişkisinin kanıtlarını sunmaktadır. Çalışmanın ana bulgularını örneklemdeki
tüm ülkelere genellemek zor olsa da, beklentilerden farklı olarak makroekonomik
değişkenlerin çoğundaki değişikliklerin politik istikrarsızlıktaki
değişikliklere neden olduğu sonucuna varabiliriz. Dolayısıyla, elde edilen
bulgulara göre, düşük enflasyon, yüksek büyüme ve istikrarlı döviz kuru
açısından ekonomik istikrarın sağlanması, politik istikrarın sağlanmasında
kilit faktörler olarak görülmektedir.

Keywords

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı, Eğim Katsayılarının Homojenliği, Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi

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