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YENİ BİR VERİ KAYNAĞI OLARAK GOOGLE TRENDS: GELECEK YÖNELİMİ ENDEKSİ İLE İLGİLİ BİR DEĞERLENDİRME / Google Trends As A New Data Source: An Evaluation Of The Future Orientation Index

Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 61 - 78, 30.04.2020
https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.676145

Abstract

Web
2.0 ile birlikte oluşan etkileşimli ortam, yeni veri kaynaklarını beraberinde
getirmiştir. Bu yeni veri kaynaklarından biri, Google arama motorunda yapılan
sorgulara erişimi sağlayan Google Trends platformudur. Bu çalışmada, internet
kullanıcılarının gelecek yıl hakkında geçmiş yıldan daha fazla bilgi arama
derecesini ölçme amacı ile geliştirilen Gelecek Yönelimi Endeksi ele alınmıştır.
Endeksi geliştiren araştırmacılar, bu endeks ile ekonomik veya sosyal
göstergeler arasında saptanan anlamlı korelasyonları, ülkelerin gelişmişlik
düzeyleri ile yapılan Google sorguları arasındaki olası bir ilişki şeklinde
yorumlamıştır. Bu bağlamda, bu endeks ile İnsani Gelişme Endeksi arasındaki
ilişki 2017 ve 2018 yılları için incelenmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen korelasyon analizi
bulgularında, Gelecek Yönelimi Endeksi ile İnsani Gelişme Endeksi arasında,
geçmiş çalışmaları destekleyici şekilde, anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü bir ilişki saptanmıştır. 

References

  • Askitas, N. ve Zimmermann, K.F. (2009). Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting. Applied Economics Quarterly, 55 (2), 107–120.
  • Bilgin, M. H., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., Karabulut, G. ve Kaya, H. (2019). A Novel Index of Macroeconomic Uncertainty for Turkey Based on Google-Trends. Economics Letters, 184, 1-5.
  • Bontempi, M. E., Golinelli, R. ve Squadrani, M. (2016). A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?. Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics Summer Workshop Series.
  • Boone, T., Ganeshan, R., Hicks, R. L. ve Sanders, N. R. (2018). Can Google Trends Improve Your Sales Forecast?. Production and Operations Management, 27(10), 1770-1774.
  • Carrière‐Swallow, Y. ve Labbé, F. (2013). Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market. Journal of Forecasting, 32(4), 289-298.
  • Castelnuovo, E. ve Tran, T. D. (2017). Google it Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia. Economics Letters, 161, 149-153.
  • Chadwick, M. G. ve Sengül, G. (2015). Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in Turkey: Let's Ask Google. Central Bank Review, 15(3), 15-40.
  • Cho, S., Sohn, C. H., Jo, M. W., Shin, S. Y., Lee, J. H., Ryoo, S. M., Kim, W.Y. ve Seo, D. W. (2013). Correlation Between National Influenza Surveillance Data and Google Trends in South Korea. PloS one, 8(12), 1-7.
  • Choi, H. ve Varian, H. (2012). Predicting the Present with Google Trends. Economic Record, 88, 2-9.
  • D’Amuri, F. ve Marcucci, J. (2010). Google it! Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search Index. ISER Working Paper Series, 1-53.
  • Eysenbach, G. (2006). Infodemiology: Tracking Flu-related Searches on the Web for Syndromic Surveillance. AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings, 244-248. Erişim adresi: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1839505/
  • Fond, G., Gaman, A., Brunel, L., Haffen, E. ve Llorca, P. M. (2015). Google Trends®: Ready for Real-time Suicide Prevention or just a Zeta-Jones Effect? An Exploratory Study. Psychiatry Research, 228(3), 913-917.
  • Ginsberg, J., Mohebbi, M. H., Patel, R. S., Brammer, L., Smolinski, M. S. ve Brilliant, L. (2009). Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data. Nature, 457(7232), 1012-1014.
  • Google Trends (2019). FAQ about Google Trends Data. Erişim adresi: https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4365533 Gunn III, J. F. ve Lester, D. (2013). Using Google Searches on the Internet to Monitor Suicidal Behavior. Journal of Affective Disorders, 148(2-3), 411-412.
  • Hand, C. ve Judge, G. (2012). Searching for the Picture: Forecasting UK Cinema Admissions Using Google Trends Data. Applied Economics Letters, 19(11), 1051-1055.
  • Internet Live Stats (2016), Internet Users by Country, Erişim adresi: https://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users-by-country/
  • Kalaycı, Ş. (2010). SPSS Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri, 9. Baskı, Ankara: Asil Yayınevi.
  • Kristoufek, L. (2013a). Bitcoin Meets Google Trends and Wikipedia: Quantifying the Relationship Between Phenomena of the Internet Era. Scientific Reports, 3,1-7.
  • Kristoufek, L. (2013b). Can Google Trends Search Queries Contribute to Risk Diversification?. Scientific Reports, 3 (2713), 1-5.
  • Kristoufek, L., Moat, H. S. ve Preis, T. (2016). Estimating Suicide Occurrence Statistics Using Google Trends. EPJ Data Science, 5(32), 1-12.
  • Lee, D., Lee, H. ve Choi, M. (2016). Examining the Relationship between Past Orientation and US Suicide Rates: An Analysis Using Big Data-Driven Google Search Queries. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 18(2), 1-12.
  • Mavragani, A. ve Tsagarakis, K. P. (2016). YES or NO: Predicting the 2015 GReferendum Results Using Google Trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 109, 1-5.
  • Mavragani, A. ve Tsagarakis, K. P. (2019). Predicting Referendum Results in the Big Data Era. Journal of Big Data, 6(1), 1-20.
  • Mccallum, M. L. ve Bury, G. W. (2013). Google Search Patterns Suggest Declining Interest in the Environment. Biodiversity and Conservation, 22(6-7), 1355-1367.
  • Nghiem, L. T., Papworth, S. K., Lim, F. K. ve Carrasco, L. R. (2016). Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News. PloS one, 11(3), 1-12.
  • Park, S. ve Kim, J. (2018). The Effect of Interest in Renewable Energy on US Household Electricity Consumption: An Analysis Using Google Trends Data. Renewable Energy, 127, 1004-1010.
  • Pavlicek, J. ve Kristoufek, L. (2015). Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries. PloS one, 10(5), 1-11.
  • Petutschnig, M. (2017). Future Orientation and Taxes: Evidence from Big Data. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 29, 14-31.
  • Polykalas, S.E., Prezerakos, G.N. ve Konidaris, A. (2013). An Algorithm Based on Google Trends' Data for Future Prediction. Case Study: German Elections. IEEE International Symposium on Signal Processing and Information Technology, 69–73.
  • Preis, T., Moat, H. S. ve Stanley, H. E. (2013). Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends. Scientific Reports, 3, 1684, 1-6.
  • Preis, T., Moat, H. S., Stanley, H. E. ve Bishop, S. R. (2012). Quantifying the Advantage of Looking Forward. Scientific Reports, 2, 350-351.
  • Rossignol, L., Pelat, C., Lambert, B., Flahault, A., Chartier-Kastler, E. ve Hanslik, T. (2013). A Method to Assess Seasonality of Urinary Tract Infections Based on Medication Sales and Google Trends. PloS one, 8(10), 1-5.
  • Seifter, A., Schwarzwalder, A., Geis, K. ve Aucott, J. (2010). The Utility of “Google Trends” for Epidemiological Research: Lyme Disease as an Example. Geospatial Health, 4(2), 135-137.
  • Shepard, J. ve Turner, T. (2019). Future Orientation as A Universal Feature of Wellbeing: Leveraging Big Data for Cross-Cultural Research. Science, Religion and Culture, 6(1), 138-145.
  • Stow, H. ve Bason, T. (2019). Bidding for Attention: Using Google Trends to Measure Global Interest in Olympic Bidders. Sport in Society, 1-20.
  • Teng, Y., Bi, D., Xie, G., Jin, Y., Huang, Y., Lin, B., An, X., Feng, D. ve Tong, Y. (2017). Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends. PloS one, 12(1), 1-10.
  • Tijerina, J. D., Morrison, S. D., Nolan, I. T., Vail, D. G., Nazerali, R. ve Lee, G. K. (2018). Google Trends as a Tool for Evaluating Public Interest in Facial Cosmetic Procedures. Aesthetic Surgery Journal. 39(8), 908–918.
  • UNDP. (1990). Human Development Report. New York: Oxford University Press. Erişim adresi: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/ 219/hdr_1990_en_complete_nostats.pdf
  • UNDP. (2019). Human Development Indices and Indicators: 2019 Statistical Update, Technical Notes, Washington DC: United Nations Development Programme. Erişim adresi: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2019_ technical_notes.pdf
  • UNDP. (2020). Human Development Data (1990-2018): 2019 Statistical Update, Technical Notes, Erişim adresi: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data
  • Vosen, S. ve Schmidt, T. (2011). Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey‐Based Indicators vs. Google Trends. Journal of Forecasting, 30(6), 565-578.
  • We Are Social ve Hootsuite (2019). Digital 2019 Q4 Global Digital Statshot, Erişim adresi: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/ NSBCWzcfsbGXTg
  • Yang, A. C., Tsai, S. J., Huang, N. E. ve Peng, C. K. (2011). Association of Internet search trends with suicide death in Taipei City, Taiwan, 2004–2009. Journal of Affective Disorders, 132(1-2), 179-184.
  • Yolcu, T. ve Sezgin, A. A. (2018). Türkiye’de Siyasal Sistem Tartışmalarında Halkın Bilinç Düzeyi: Google Türkiye Aramaları Üzerine Bir İnceleme. PESA Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(1), 148-160.

GOOGLE TRENDS AS A NEW DATA SOURCE: AN EVALUATION OF THE FUTURE ORIENTATION INDEX / Yeni Bir Veri Kaynağı Olarak Google Trends: Gelecek Yönelimi Endeksi İle İlgili Bir Değerlendirme

Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 61 - 78, 30.04.2020
https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.676145

Abstract

The interactive
environment created with Web 2.0 brought new data sources. One of these new
data sources is the Google Trends platform, which provides access to queries
made on the Google search engine. In this study, the Future Orientation Index, which
was developed to measure the degree to which Internet users search more
information about future years than past years, is discussed. Researchers who
developed the index interpreted the significant correlations between this index
and economic or social indicators as a possible relationship between the
development levels of countries and Google queries. In this context, the
relationship between this index and the Human Development Index is examined for
2017 and 2018. As a result of the correlation analysis, a significant and
positive relationship is found between

the Future Orientation Index and the Human Development Index, supporting
the suggestions of previous scholars.

References

  • Askitas, N. ve Zimmermann, K.F. (2009). Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting. Applied Economics Quarterly, 55 (2), 107–120.
  • Bilgin, M. H., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., Karabulut, G. ve Kaya, H. (2019). A Novel Index of Macroeconomic Uncertainty for Turkey Based on Google-Trends. Economics Letters, 184, 1-5.
  • Bontempi, M. E., Golinelli, R. ve Squadrani, M. (2016). A New Index of Uncertainty Based on Internet Searches: A Friend or Foe of Other Indicators?. Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics Summer Workshop Series.
  • Boone, T., Ganeshan, R., Hicks, R. L. ve Sanders, N. R. (2018). Can Google Trends Improve Your Sales Forecast?. Production and Operations Management, 27(10), 1770-1774.
  • Carrière‐Swallow, Y. ve Labbé, F. (2013). Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market. Journal of Forecasting, 32(4), 289-298.
  • Castelnuovo, E. ve Tran, T. D. (2017). Google it Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia. Economics Letters, 161, 149-153.
  • Chadwick, M. G. ve Sengül, G. (2015). Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in Turkey: Let's Ask Google. Central Bank Review, 15(3), 15-40.
  • Cho, S., Sohn, C. H., Jo, M. W., Shin, S. Y., Lee, J. H., Ryoo, S. M., Kim, W.Y. ve Seo, D. W. (2013). Correlation Between National Influenza Surveillance Data and Google Trends in South Korea. PloS one, 8(12), 1-7.
  • Choi, H. ve Varian, H. (2012). Predicting the Present with Google Trends. Economic Record, 88, 2-9.
  • D’Amuri, F. ve Marcucci, J. (2010). Google it! Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search Index. ISER Working Paper Series, 1-53.
  • Eysenbach, G. (2006). Infodemiology: Tracking Flu-related Searches on the Web for Syndromic Surveillance. AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings, 244-248. Erişim adresi: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1839505/
  • Fond, G., Gaman, A., Brunel, L., Haffen, E. ve Llorca, P. M. (2015). Google Trends®: Ready for Real-time Suicide Prevention or just a Zeta-Jones Effect? An Exploratory Study. Psychiatry Research, 228(3), 913-917.
  • Ginsberg, J., Mohebbi, M. H., Patel, R. S., Brammer, L., Smolinski, M. S. ve Brilliant, L. (2009). Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data. Nature, 457(7232), 1012-1014.
  • Google Trends (2019). FAQ about Google Trends Data. Erişim adresi: https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4365533 Gunn III, J. F. ve Lester, D. (2013). Using Google Searches on the Internet to Monitor Suicidal Behavior. Journal of Affective Disorders, 148(2-3), 411-412.
  • Hand, C. ve Judge, G. (2012). Searching for the Picture: Forecasting UK Cinema Admissions Using Google Trends Data. Applied Economics Letters, 19(11), 1051-1055.
  • Internet Live Stats (2016), Internet Users by Country, Erişim adresi: https://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users-by-country/
  • Kalaycı, Ş. (2010). SPSS Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri, 9. Baskı, Ankara: Asil Yayınevi.
  • Kristoufek, L. (2013a). Bitcoin Meets Google Trends and Wikipedia: Quantifying the Relationship Between Phenomena of the Internet Era. Scientific Reports, 3,1-7.
  • Kristoufek, L. (2013b). Can Google Trends Search Queries Contribute to Risk Diversification?. Scientific Reports, 3 (2713), 1-5.
  • Kristoufek, L., Moat, H. S. ve Preis, T. (2016). Estimating Suicide Occurrence Statistics Using Google Trends. EPJ Data Science, 5(32), 1-12.
  • Lee, D., Lee, H. ve Choi, M. (2016). Examining the Relationship between Past Orientation and US Suicide Rates: An Analysis Using Big Data-Driven Google Search Queries. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 18(2), 1-12.
  • Mavragani, A. ve Tsagarakis, K. P. (2016). YES or NO: Predicting the 2015 GReferendum Results Using Google Trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 109, 1-5.
  • Mavragani, A. ve Tsagarakis, K. P. (2019). Predicting Referendum Results in the Big Data Era. Journal of Big Data, 6(1), 1-20.
  • Mccallum, M. L. ve Bury, G. W. (2013). Google Search Patterns Suggest Declining Interest in the Environment. Biodiversity and Conservation, 22(6-7), 1355-1367.
  • Nghiem, L. T., Papworth, S. K., Lim, F. K. ve Carrasco, L. R. (2016). Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News. PloS one, 11(3), 1-12.
  • Park, S. ve Kim, J. (2018). The Effect of Interest in Renewable Energy on US Household Electricity Consumption: An Analysis Using Google Trends Data. Renewable Energy, 127, 1004-1010.
  • Pavlicek, J. ve Kristoufek, L. (2015). Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries. PloS one, 10(5), 1-11.
  • Petutschnig, M. (2017). Future Orientation and Taxes: Evidence from Big Data. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 29, 14-31.
  • Polykalas, S.E., Prezerakos, G.N. ve Konidaris, A. (2013). An Algorithm Based on Google Trends' Data for Future Prediction. Case Study: German Elections. IEEE International Symposium on Signal Processing and Information Technology, 69–73.
  • Preis, T., Moat, H. S. ve Stanley, H. E. (2013). Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends. Scientific Reports, 3, 1684, 1-6.
  • Preis, T., Moat, H. S., Stanley, H. E. ve Bishop, S. R. (2012). Quantifying the Advantage of Looking Forward. Scientific Reports, 2, 350-351.
  • Rossignol, L., Pelat, C., Lambert, B., Flahault, A., Chartier-Kastler, E. ve Hanslik, T. (2013). A Method to Assess Seasonality of Urinary Tract Infections Based on Medication Sales and Google Trends. PloS one, 8(10), 1-5.
  • Seifter, A., Schwarzwalder, A., Geis, K. ve Aucott, J. (2010). The Utility of “Google Trends” for Epidemiological Research: Lyme Disease as an Example. Geospatial Health, 4(2), 135-137.
  • Shepard, J. ve Turner, T. (2019). Future Orientation as A Universal Feature of Wellbeing: Leveraging Big Data for Cross-Cultural Research. Science, Religion and Culture, 6(1), 138-145.
  • Stow, H. ve Bason, T. (2019). Bidding for Attention: Using Google Trends to Measure Global Interest in Olympic Bidders. Sport in Society, 1-20.
  • Teng, Y., Bi, D., Xie, G., Jin, Y., Huang, Y., Lin, B., An, X., Feng, D. ve Tong, Y. (2017). Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends. PloS one, 12(1), 1-10.
  • Tijerina, J. D., Morrison, S. D., Nolan, I. T., Vail, D. G., Nazerali, R. ve Lee, G. K. (2018). Google Trends as a Tool for Evaluating Public Interest in Facial Cosmetic Procedures. Aesthetic Surgery Journal. 39(8), 908–918.
  • UNDP. (1990). Human Development Report. New York: Oxford University Press. Erişim adresi: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/ 219/hdr_1990_en_complete_nostats.pdf
  • UNDP. (2019). Human Development Indices and Indicators: 2019 Statistical Update, Technical Notes, Washington DC: United Nations Development Programme. Erişim adresi: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2019_ technical_notes.pdf
  • UNDP. (2020). Human Development Data (1990-2018): 2019 Statistical Update, Technical Notes, Erişim adresi: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data
  • Vosen, S. ve Schmidt, T. (2011). Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey‐Based Indicators vs. Google Trends. Journal of Forecasting, 30(6), 565-578.
  • We Are Social ve Hootsuite (2019). Digital 2019 Q4 Global Digital Statshot, Erişim adresi: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/ NSBCWzcfsbGXTg
  • Yang, A. C., Tsai, S. J., Huang, N. E. ve Peng, C. K. (2011). Association of Internet search trends with suicide death in Taipei City, Taiwan, 2004–2009. Journal of Affective Disorders, 132(1-2), 179-184.
  • Yolcu, T. ve Sezgin, A. A. (2018). Türkiye’de Siyasal Sistem Tartışmalarında Halkın Bilinç Düzeyi: Google Türkiye Aramaları Üzerine Bir İnceleme. PESA Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(1), 148-160.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLES
Authors

Büşra Ayan 0000-0002-5212-2144

Publication Date April 30, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ayan, B. (2020). YENİ BİR VERİ KAYNAĞI OLARAK GOOGLE TRENDS: GELECEK YÖNELİMİ ENDEKSİ İLE İLGİLİ BİR DEĞERLENDİRME / Google Trends As A New Data Source: An Evaluation Of The Future Orientation Index. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme Ve Politika Dergisi, 4(1), 61-78. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.676145

Recep Tayyip Erdogan University
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences
Department of Economics
RIZE / TURKEY