An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of Environmental Kuznets and Load Capacity Curves of Forests in Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 454 - 477

Aslı Ahlat , Süleyman Yurtkuran

https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.1651556

Abstract

This study emphasizes the need for effective forest management strategies, particularly with regard to the conservation and regeneration of forests, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals. In this regard, the study aims to analyze the effects of economic growth, renewable energy consumption, life expectancy at birth and openness to international trade on the environmental conditions of Türkiye's forests for the period 1974-2021. To achieve this goal, the study tested the long-term relationship between the variables using the Bayer-Hanck cointegration method. Subsequently, the long-run coefficients were estimated using fully modified least squares and the canonical cointegration regression method. The results show that the environmental Kuznets curve and load capacity curve hypotheses are valid for the forests. It is concluded that as Türkiye’s economic growth increases, the environmental conditions of the country's forests will improve in the long term. The study also shows that increasing demand for renewable energy sources and increasing life expectancy have a positive effect on the environment, while increasing openness worsens environmental quality. These results show that it is very important to ensure the sustainability of the country's forests and maintain their biological capacity.

Keywords

Deforestation , Life Expectancy , Environmental Kuznets Curve , Load Capacity Curves

Türkiye’de Ormanların Çevresel Kuznets ve Yük Kapasite Eğrilerinin Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışma, sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri doğrultusunda, özellikle ormanların korunması ve yenilenmesi ile ilgili etkin orman yönetimi stratejilerine duyulan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır. Bununla bağlantılı olarak çalışma; ekonomik büyüme, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, doğuşta beklenen yaşam süresi ve ticari dışa açıklığın Türkiye’nin ormanlarının çevresel koşulları üzerindeki etkilerini 1974-2021 dönemi için analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için çalışmada, Bayer-Hanck eşbütünleşme yöntemi ile değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki test edilmiştir. Ardından tam düzeltilmiş en küçük kareler ve kanonik eşbütünleşme regresyonu yöntemleri kullanılarak uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, ormanlar için çevresel Kuznets eğrisi ve yük kapasite eğrisi hipotezlerinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesi arttıkça, ülke ormanlarının çevresel koşullarının uzun vadede iyileştiği sonucuna varılmıştır. Araştırma ayrıca, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelik artan talebin ve beklenen yaşam süresinin uzamasının çevre üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğunu, ticari dışa açıklık düzeyindeki artışın ise çevresel kaliteyi kötüleştirdiğini göstermektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, ülke ormanlarının sürdürülebilirliğini sağlamanın ve biyolojik kapasitelerini korumanın oldukça önemli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Ormansızlaşma , Beklenen Yaşam Süresi , Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi , Yük Kapasite Eğrisi

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