The Wage-Price Spiral in Turkey and Its Effect on Inflation: ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Year 2022, , 289 - 309, 25.10.2022

Ezgi Baday Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1160762

Abstract

This article explores the validity of the wage-price spiral and its effect on inflation in Turkey in the period 2009Q1-2021Q3. For this purpose, three models have been estimated. The first is the basic wage-price spiral model; the second is the wage-price model decoupled from productivity in the industrial sector; the third is the extended model that takes into account the macro determinants underlying price inflation. According to the results of the models estimated using the ARDL Bounds Test Approach, the wage-price spiral is valid only when other determinants of inflation are ignored. According to the estimation results of the extended model, it is concluded that real gross domestic product on wages and exchange rate on prices are positive and statistically significant in both the long and short run.

Keywords

Price-Wage Spiral, Inflation, ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Türkiye’de Ücret-Fiyat Sarmalı ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu makale, 2009Q1-2021Q3 döneminde Türkiye’de ücret-fiyat sarmalının geçerliliğini ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla üç model tahmin edilmiştir. Birincisi temel ücret-fiyat sarmalı modeli; ikincisi sanayi sektöründe verimlilikten ayrıştırılmış ücret-fiyat modeli; üçüncüsü fiyat enflasyonunun altında yatan makro belirleyicileri dikkate alan genişletilmiş modeldir. ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılarak tahmin edilen modellerin sonuçlarına göre, ücret-fiyat sarmalı ancak enflasyonun diğer belirleyicileri göz ardı edildiğinde geçerlidir. Genişletilmiş model tahmin sonuçlarına göre, hem uzun hem kısa dönemde, ücretler üzerinde reel gayrı safi yurtiçi hasılanın ve fiyatlar üzerinde döviz kurunun pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Fiyat-Ücret Sarmalı, Enflasyon, ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

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