Tarımsal İhracatta Makroekonomik Dinamikler: Panel Veri Analiziyle Ampirik Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2000-2022 döneminde 104 ülkeye ait panel veriler kullanılarak tarımsal hammadde, gıda ürünleri ve toplam mal ihracatının makroekonomik belirleyicilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizde reel efektif döviz kuru (REER), toplam faktör verimliliği (TFV) ve kişi başına düşen gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) temel bağımsız değişkenler olarak ele alınmış; panel veri yöntemleriyle sabit ve rassal etkiler modelleri tahmin edilmiş, Hausman testi ile uygun model seçilmiş, ardından yatay kesit bağımlılığı, değişen varyans ve otokorelasyon sorunlarına karşı Driscoll-Kraay ve kümelenmiş standart hatalar uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, ihracatın bileşenlerine göre farklılaşan etkiler olduğunu göstermektedir. Tarımsal hammadde ihracatında GSYH ve reel efektif döviz kurunun negatif etkileri öne çıkarken, TFV’nin anlamlı bir katkısı bulunmamıştır. Gıda ihracatında TFV pozitif ve güçlü biçimde belirleyici olurken, GSYH’nin etkisi çoğunlukla önemsiz veya negatif yönlü saptanmıştır. Mal ihracatı modelinde ise GSYH, TFV ve döviz kuru genel olarak pozitif ve anlamlı bulunmuş, ekonomik büyüme ve verimlilik artışlarının ihracatı desteklediği, rekabetçi kurun da etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarımsal ihracat
• Tarım ekonomisi
• Tarımsal verimlilik

Macroeconomic Dynamics in Agricultural Exports: An Empirical Approach Using Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to examine the macroeconomic determinants of agricultural raw materials, food products, and total merchandise exports using panel data from 104 countries covering the period 2000-2022. The analysis employs the real effective exchange rate (REER), total factor productivity (TFV), and per capita gross domestic product (GSYH) as the main explanatory variables. Panel data econometric methods were applied, including fixed and random effects models, with the Hausman test used to identify the appropriate specification. To address cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation, Driscoll-Kraay and clustered robust standard errors were employed. The findings reveal that the effects of macroeconomic variables differ across export categories. In agricultural raw material exports, GSYH and REER exhibit negative and significant effects, while TFV is not statistically significant. For food exports, TFV demonstrates a positive and strong impact, whereas GSYH is mostly insignificant or negative. In the case of total merchandise exports, GSYH, TFV, and REER generally exert positive and significant influences, confirming the supportive roles of economic growth, productivity improvements, and competitive exchange rates.

Keywords

• Agricultural export
• Agricultural economy
• Agricultural productivity

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