Türkiye’de Aile Yapısının Dönüşümü ve Bölgesel Gelişmişlik: Hanehalkı Büyüklüğü ve Elektrik Tüketimi Üzerine İBBS-3 Düzeyinde Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2011-2023 dönemine ilişkin il düzeyindeki panel veri setinden yararlanarak Türkiye’nin 81 ilinde ortalama hanehalkı büyüklüğünün belirleyicilerini incelemekte ve söz konusu değişkenlerin bölgesel sosyoekonomik gelişmişlik bağlamındaki ilişkisini değerlendirmektedir. Ampirik analiz kapsamında eğitim düzeyi, toplam doğurganlık hızı, kentleşme oranı ve ekonomik gelişmişliğin dolaylı bir göstergesi olarak kişi başı hanehalkı elektrik tüketimi değişkenleri modele dâhil edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, uzun dönemde eğitim seviyesindeki artış, kentleşme oranındaki yükseliş ve kişi başı elektrik tüketimindeki gelişmenin daha küçük hane yapılarıyla ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koyarken, doğurganlık hızının hanehalkı büyüklüğünü pozitif yönlü ve güçlü biçimde açıklamaya devam ettiğini göstermektedir. Kısa dönem katsayıları ise bölgeler arasında farklılaşmakta olup, dönüşüm süreçlerinin iller düzeyinde heterojen nitelik taşıdığına işaret etmektedir. İl bazlı kapsamlı analiz, hanehalkı dinamiklerindeki mekânsal eşitsizlikleri görünür kılmakta ve Türkiye’de sürmekte olan demografik dönüşümün sosyoekonomik izdüşümlerine ilişkin güncel kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, hanehalkı yapısı ile bölgesel gelişme arasındaki ilişkinin akademik literatürdeki yerini güçlendirmekte ve aile oluşum biçimlerindeki değişen eğilimlerin, bölgesel politika tasarımında dikkate alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hanehalkı büyüklüğü
• Kişi başı hanehalkı elektrik tüketimi
• Panel ARDL

Transformation of Family Structure and Regional Development in Türkiye: A NUTS-3 Level Analysis on Household Size and Electricity Consumption

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of average household size across Türkiye’s 81 provinces over the 2011-2023 period, emphasizing its connection to regional socio-economic development. Within the scope of the empirical analysis, the variables of education level, total fertility rate, urbanization rate, and household electricity consumption per capita as an indirect indicator of economic development were included in the model. The results show that increased educational attainment, urbanization, and electricity consumption are associated with smaller households in the long run, while fertility remains a positive and robust driver of household size. Short-run dynamics vary, highlighting transitional effects across regions. The study’s province-level focus reveals spatial disparities in household dynamics and offers insight into the demographic transformation unfolding in Turkey. These findings contribute to a growing literature on the intersection of household structure and development, and suggest that regional policy design should account for the evolving patterns of family formation and living arrangements.

Keywords

• Household size
• Household electricity consumption
• Panel ARDL

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