Savunma Harcamaları ve Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma İlişkisi: Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, savunma harcamaları ile sürdürülebilir kalkınma arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan 108 ülkede 2000-2023 dönemi için incelemektir. Savunma harcamaları GSYH’nin yüzdesi olarak SIPRI’dan, sürdürülebilir kalkınma verisi Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları Endeksinden elde edilmiştir. Nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemek amacıyla yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (PFTY) testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar savunma harcamalarından sürdürülebilir kalkınmaya %10, sürdürülebilir kalkınmadan savunma harcamalarına %5 düzeyinde nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, ilişki homojen değildir. 108 ülkenin 4’ünde çift yönlü, 28’inde tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilirken, diğer ülkelerde anlamlı ilişki bulunmamıştır. Bulgular, savunma ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarının ülke koşulları dikkate alınarak birlikte değerlendirilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. Alt amaçlar incelendiğinde, 15 sürdürülebilir kalkınma amacının 10’unda çift ve 4’ünde tek yönlü nedensellik bulunduğu ve 1’inde nedensellik bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, nedenselliğin sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın tek bir boyutuyla sınırlı olmadığını kalkınmanın ekonomik, sosyal, çevresel ve kurumsal amaçlarında farklı yönlerde ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Savunma harcamaları
• sürdürülebilir kalkınma
• panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi

The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Sustainable Development: Evidence from the Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Abstract

This study examines the causal relationship between defense expenditures and sustainable development in 108 developed and developing countries over 2000-2023. Defense expenditures, measured as a percentage of GDP, are obtained from SIPRI, while sustainable development data come from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Index. The Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (PFTY) test, accounting for structural breaks, is applied to determine causality. The results indicate causality from defense expenditures to sustainable development at the 10% level and from sustainable development to defense expenditures at the 5% level. However, the relationship is heterogeneous: bidirectional causality is found in four countries, unidirectional causality in 28, and no significant relationship in the others. Findings suggest that defense and sustainable development policies should be considered jointly, considering country-specific conditions. Across the 15 SDG, bidirectional causality is found for 10, unidirectional causality for four, and no causality for one, indicating that causality extends across economic, social, environmental, and institutional dimensions.

Keywords

• Defense expenditures
• sustainable development
• Panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test

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